Current Location: 24.3N, 93.1W Geographic Reference: 270 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX Movement: North-northeast at 8 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better Organized Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1004 mb Tropical Depression Twenty-Two has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta by the National Hurricane Center. There are no changes to the track or intensity forecast with this update.
Go, go, Alpha Betas, go, go! Remember when college was a bunch of people in their 30s and 40s? Good times.
nowadays any ol storm gets named. back in my day .... you had to be a REAL storm to earn a name . These new storms would get destroyed in the post by any real old-school cane' oh and on TD beta , we need to get get Beto O'rourke to hang out on the coast line and hope that it will be like 2 magnets pushing each other away.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:44 AM CDT Saturday September 19, 2020 Teddy Hurricane Teddy is located about 640 miles southeast of Bermuda and moving northwest at 13 mph. Teddy will likely affect Bermuda with tropical storm force winds on Monday. Then, Teddy will move into Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Tuesday night into Wednesday as a powerful extratropical cyclone. Beta Tropical Storm Beta is located 335 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas and moving north-northeast at 10 mph. Maximum winds are near 60 mph. It is forecast to meander across the western Gulf of Mexico, off the lower Texas coast, on Sunday into early next week. There remains a lot of uncertainty on the the forecast track and intensity of the system. Wilfred Tropical Storm Wilfred is located 800 miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Wilfred will likely weaken to a depression on Monday, then a remnant low late Monday, well to the east of the Caribbean. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch The remnants of Paulette are centered near 36.7N, 31W, or just southwest of the Azores. The low will stall southwest of the Azores later today into Sunday over water marginally favorable for tropical development. The chance of redevelopment is estimated at near 30 percent. Disturbance 48 is a tropical wave that will move off the coast of western Africa later today. It is located along 14W. Some model guidance indicate slight development with the wave on Sunday into Monday as it passes just north of the Cabo Verde islands. It is forecast to move to the west-northwest into the eastern Atlantic and will remain in the eastern Atlantic over the next week. There is a 10 percent chance of tropical development. Disturbance 47, which became Subtropical Storm Alpha yesterday as it moved into Portugal, has weakened to a remnant low over Portugal. It has been removed from our analysis. Tropical Storm Beta Advisory 8 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Saturday September 19, 2020 Current Location: 26.1N, 92.2W Geographic Reference: 335 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, TX Movement: North-northeast at 10 mph Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 100 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 996 mb Key Points 1. There was only a slight eastward shift of the track in this update. 2. Beta will be a relatively slow moving system over the next several days. 3. Heavy rainfall is possible along the Texas Coast. Our Forecast Air force reconnaissance data found stronger winds of up to 60 mph overnight shortly after our previous advisory. Since that time, there has been little change in the intensity of Tropical Storm Beta. The center of Beta has reformed closer to the thunderstorm activity. However, it appears to be tilted to the northeast due to wind shear presently over the system. It also appears that the northward motion it has taken is slowing this morning. Beta will gradually strengthen today as it turns more westward and could become a hurricane tonight into Sunday morning. Beta is expected to approach the middle Texas coast Monday while decelerating. Some of our model guidance indicates that Beta could make a right turn towards the northeast by early Tuesday and parallel the Texas coast at a slow pace. We think that this is the most likely track in this update. Beta is forecast to weaken as dry air intrusion across the western and southern circulation and land interaction will help to weaken Beta. Afterward, we think the system will move into southwest Louisiana and will weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday while accelerating to the northeast. However, there is other model guidance that indicates the system could move into the middle or upper Texas coast while others keep it stalled offshore Texas for a few more days. We continue to think the forecast confidence remains below average in the track in this update. Due to the expected slow movement next week, heavy rainfall will be the greatest threat from Beta along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The best chance of heavy rainfall for the lower Texas Coast and Coastal Bend is on Monday and Tuesday. For the Upper Texas Coast into southwest Louisiana, the best chance of heavy rainfall will be Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Due to existing uncertainties regarding the exact track along with the nature of the expected dry air intrusion, there is great uncertainty regarding the rainfall totals and the exact location of the heaviest rainfall. On our current track, the heaviest rainfall would occur near the immediate coast from the Coastal Bend to southwestern Louisiana. We think the system will be a tropical storm as it moves up the Texas Coast. Therefore, tropical storm conditions are currently forecast along the Texas Coast from roughly around Corpus Christi to the Texas-Louisiana border. Tropical storm conditions would likely occur over coastal southwest Louisiana Wednesday night into early Thursday morning on our track as well. Coastal flooding is likely along the Texas Coast from Sunday to Wednesday and along the Louisiana coast Monday through early Thursday. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf: Squalls, enhanced seas, and tropical storm conditions, at least in squalls, are expected over much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Wednesday. The best chance of receiving more persistent gales over the deep water leases will be from western portions of both Garden Banks and Keathley Canyon points west into East Breaks and Alaminos Canyon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of Alaminos Canyon and East Breaks on Sunday and Monday. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Texas: Heavy rains and gusty winds are likely along much of the Texas Coast from Sunday to at least Wednesday. Issues to ground traffic due to flooding are possible. Coastal flooding due to storm surge may exacerbate any already occurring issues due to heavy rainfall. Scattered power outages due to tropical storm force winds would likely occur on this current predicted track.
The UN Climate Panel found in its latest report that hurricanes (aka tropical cyclones) haven’t increased: “Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century.” For the United States, the trend of all land-falling hurricanes has been falling since 1900, as has that of major hurricanes. In the 51 years from 1915, Florida and the Atlantic coast were hit by 19 major hurricanes. In the 51 years to 2016, just seven. In the last 11 years, only two hurricanes greater than category 3 hit the continental USA — a record low since 1900. From 1915 to 1926, 12 hit. We’re not seeing an increase of hurricanes. Yes, hurricane costs keep escalating. But this is not due to climate change. Rather, more people with more wealth live in harm’s way. The US population rose four-fold over the past century, but climbed 50-fold in coastal areas. The area hurricane Florence was predicted to hit held fewer than 800,000 homes in 1940; it’s now 11.3 million — a 1,325 percent jump. Homes are bigger and hold many more expensive possessions. Adjusted for population and wealth, US hurricane damage has not increased since 1900. Global weather damage as a percent of global GDP actually fell from 1990 to 2017.
Did you pull that from the New York Post opinion piece, the 2008 AGU paper or somewhere else? Please provide a link.
