I think if Alvarez hadn't come out of nowhere this season and Tucker didn't pan out, I'd agree with the article. But the addition of those two guys who are under team control for years certainly makes this team's future appear to be pretty bright. The starting pitching is probably the bigger question that needs to be addressed long-term. Re-signing Cole would certainly help ease those concerns, though. I do think that this team will still be damn good in 2022. The question of "how good?" will depend on the pitching staff and how guys like McCullers, Whitely, James and Urquidy play out the next few seasons. Because there's no reason to think the offense won't still be stellar over the next 4-5 seasons.
The current contender was really built around 4 young, cheap players: Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Springer. Everyone else is either a complementary player or was acquired via trade with prospects. I believe Houston will continue to have the prospects to make those same kinds of trades, and Tucker-Alvarez-Whitley gives them 3 new controllable cheap young players to build around in this second phase of contention (would be nice if Lee, Toro, Barber, or another prospect could come up in the next 2-3 years to add another).
Looking out 3-5 years just seems like an exercise in futility to me. Look at the Astros in 2014, and did anyone project anything like they have now? There's no way to know what the roster will remotely look like in 2022-2024 right now.
In all seriousness, looking 3-5 years out won't give a precise number, but more a number that gives you an idea of direction. There is plenty of time for things to change. I expect Bregman, Altuve, and Alvarez to be Astros over those years, I expect cold hard cash to be able to fill a lot of positions, and I expect some prospects to bust and some to play well. One doesn't need to know whole roster to get an idea that cash and prospects likely make Astros competitive those years, but may need a little more help to be a true playoff contender. If the Astros project that they are only going to win 70 games a year from 2022-2024, they should be entering all-in mode and be looking at turning as much 2022-2024 value into 2020-2021 value. As it looks now, Astros should be looking at ways to add value to those years.
That's a general picture of what they were trying to do - but not a roster analysis. Did anyone forecast Verlander, Cole, Geinke, or Morton (coming and going)? Alvarez? Gurriel, Brantley being stars? Osuna/Pressly? Most of the core this year's team was on no one's radar in 2014. I'd guess by 2024, there will be 18+ new players on the Astros roster compared to today. And we have no idea who most of those will be. Some still may be in high school. We can say the front office knows what they are doing, so we'll probably be good, but I don't think we can project much beyond that.
In 2014 it was pretty logical to project out and see Altuve, Correa, and Springer as key players on a winning roster in 2015-2020.
A long term projection is meant to be a general picture and not a roster analysis. Your problem with long term projections is that you want them to be more than they are. Long term projections are meant to change. In 2014, one should have easily seen that Astros would have a lot of young talent, and if they used their money wisely would likely be contenders from 2017 through 2019. Cole and Verlander trades definitely would give a bump to any win projection made before them as they've turned into true steals. For Morton, Gurriel, Brantley...it was fully expected Astros would spend more money. Probably not as much as they've spent post-World Series, but World Series tends to change projections. It was expected that Astros would make some good moves and some bad moves. One can also say: Bregman and Altuve are under contract still and probably Astros; Alvarez and Tucker will be Astros if Astros desire to keep them; No contracts other than Bregman and Altuve have been made at this point; Astros will likely be in the Top 25% in payroll and will likely spend money on players; Fangraphs projects Astros to have $135M in surplus value in the Farm. From that information, I garner the Astros need to make trades like the Verlander and Cole that bring in a lot of value without giving up much to bolster the roster as club controlled talent and money looks to be more competitive than contender. Being better at free agency and developing players are also avenues to beat my projections. Astros likely have enough talent, that a rebuild won't happen soon.
26 man 2024 roster with % confidence: C Lee 30% 1B TBD 2B Altuve 90% IF TBD IF Bregman 90% OF Tucker 70% OF Springer 30% OF TBD DH Alvarez 80% UT Toro 40% C TBD UT TBD UT Straw 40% P Whitley 40% P Abreu 50% P James 50% P Urquidy 40% P x 9 TBD My guess is if I submitted a 2024 roster prediction now, I would guess 7-8 players correctly.
Sure - but lots of teams have a few good-to-great players. Altuve certainly wasn't an MVP type player and Correa didn't have back issues to the point where there's talk about not even trying to keep him, so even those aren't necessarily what people expected at this point either. "Could be good with a couple of crazy trades for the 2 best pitchers in baseball without giving up much; be good at free agency; develop players". That could be said about basically any team in baseball with 3 or 4 good young players.
With an okay farm system, a Top 25% payroll, and no albatross contracts, you are essentially correct. Though, I didn't intend the Cole/Verlander trades as the magnitude of the robberies...only that 3 or 4 good players, cash, and an okay farm system by themselves aren't likely enough.
We've been able to aquire through questionable means, the Tom Emanski Defensive drills video series. it's over.
Maybe not exact, but you could tell in 2014 this team was going to be good with Altuve, springer and Correa knocking on the door.
That is true. With the blue chip and over achiever prospects in 2013 and 2012, you had a sense that the barrel dry minor league system under Drayton McClain were over. The big league team was abismal, but the prospects were racking it. Gone were the days when we were just following that one guy that the entire fan base knew was mlb talent wise.... We who followed the Astros in the dry years knew something was brewing, but what they concocted has far exceeded most of our most realistic expectations. Usually those highly touted players are more fizz than juice, but the Astros struck gold with a plethora of their guys. Awesome scouting and analytics really done right! Now they start the playoffs with as good a chance and talent as any team.
...ahem, some were even clamoring (in a very annoying fashion) for Springer to not continue to be held down simply due to arbitration issues throughout 2013.
