[ClutchFans] Podcast: Value-Oriented Rockets set to meet the Summer of Overspending

Interesting podcast as always, thank you Clutch and Bima

 

Just in time for boring working lunch, Thanks!

 

thanks Clutch for posting this, listening right now. Really interesting discussion of the Dwight redux scenario.

on edit: just got to the Jerry Lin section. Absolutely made me laugh out loud. "My heart just stopped." loved it.

 

Good listen.

I boldly predict that hordes of people will proclaim that the Rockets "overspent" on whoever is brought in or brought back, with zero recognition that all "values" have been re-set to the new cap.

Under Morey, the Rockets will always be value oriented and this summer is no different. But the values have changed and the masses will just freak out anyway.

 

Depends on who they sign. If we go after serious game, by all means, but if we going to sign guys like Lin, D-Mo or even Whiteside to crazy contracts then I'd rather we tank.

 

*BT: The Rockets will have to rely heavily on cap room, whether to sign FAs outright or absorb salaries via trade.

*C: Without Durant, where do the Rockets go with this money? With Howard, we heard the writing was on the wall. He's looking for max money. Now reports that the Rockets want him back. That's shocking. I assumed it was over. I would be stunned if they brought him back. What we saw on the court didn't work.

*BT: Howard may be the best NBA talent the Rockets can attract with their cap room. I'd be shocked if any team offered him his max ($31M). This could be a kick in the pants that Dwight needs. He fashions himself as a super max but when he gets on the market, he'll get the message the landscape has changed. If they can get on the same page, huge IF, if they can get on the same page on how he fits going forward, there could be a fit there. The talent shortage in this FA class is a problem. Even if they sign Dwight & trade him in 6 months, it might be better than throwing money at a mid-tier FA.

*C: You give it a test run. If you have the same issues, you deal him. Rockets are about value. They try to avoid overpaying. They don't want contracts that are unmovable. If they can get him at value that is tradeable later, that'd be of interest to them I assume. I don't see him fitting with D'Antoni & Harden. After that season, disappointing to see them try to make this work. The way the NBA is evolving, you can't go in the direction depending on Dwight.

*BT: Small handful of FAs I'd rather have than Dwight. The odds of the Rockets even getting one is not high, let alone two. With Dwight the best available on the board, he's gonna remain a viable alternative until he signs elsewhere.

*C: What do they do with this cap room? Seems like they may punt for 2017 FA if they can. Conley, Horford & Anderson - max guys (except Anderson). Rockets going after them?

*BT: They'll probably go after them. Conley & Horford will get the full 4-year max from other teams. I'm wary of paying Conley that money. Paying him $30M in his age-33 season scares the hell out of me. Less concerned about Horford. Solid, checks all the boxes. His game will age gracefully. He'll still be a good NBA player in his 30s.

*C: Conley is a leader, something the Rockets lack. I'm with you though, is that worth the max? Tough to say. Conley & Anderson will get Rockets interest.

*BT: Anderson won't get full max but offers in the $18M-$20M range if not more. Great 3pt shooter. Poor man's Kevin Love.

*C: You have to think Anderson looks at Houston with D'Antoni and say "Yeah, I like this."

*BT: I gotta be salivating playing for D'Antoni if I'm Anderson. Pad your stats, put up big numbers, could have career years the next 2 years. If the Rockets offer $3M less per season than Team X, would he give it up to play for D'Antoni? I don't think so.

*C: Les Alexander - there have been times in my personal opinion only, the business of basketball has not aligned with the business of championship contention. It's been a Les directive they do not lose. That's hurt them at times. The 2nd Jeremy Lin signing was a Les decision. We joked Les was going to draft Zhou Qi and he did that. My point: Is Jeremy Lin going to get Rockets interest again?

*BT: Yes! Let me separate the Les/China from Les/Basketball decisions. Do I think it would be in the Rockets best financial interest to bring Lin back? Probably, yes. Purely on basketball, at the right number, I think Lin would be a good fit on this Rockets team under D'Antoni. Linsanity happened under D'Antoni. Lin is a pretty decent PG. His skill set aligns with what the Rockets are going to try & do next season offensively. What are you going to pay? He could start or be your 6th man. He would flourish more under D'Antoni than McHale.

*C: It's not just the crazies that would come back. We've tried this with Harden already. I'm looking at D'Antoni, he's looking at Harden has being the role Lin/Nash played. Harden is the team's PG. I could be wrong. I don't see Lin coming in and handling the ball like he did in NY and running the offense. We're gonna run into the same issues as before. He had a solid season for Charlotte off the bench. His fans were angry when the Rockets benched him. He's still not a good 3PT shooter. I don't see it. He is a good PG but don't see how he fits alongside Harden.

*BT: They need play makers. What Lin did well in Charlotte was he got to the FT line. As much as Harden had a fantastic year offensively, the whole team was Harden, Harden, Harden. His usage rate was through the roof. They need additional play makers. Ty Lawson pooped the bed. Jeremy could be that secondary play maker. Savior? Absolutely not. Fit a role, non-starring but key role? Yes. Some team will probably offer more than Rockets but he falls within the range of a guy both good enough to pay above MLE money but without overspending.

*C: I say I wouldn't want Lin back but Lin may not want to come back either. It didn't end well. With D'Antoni, when he was his coach, that's when he had most success and does have history with Houston/Les Alexander. You certainly wonder. I wouldn't put it past them for the Rockets to contact him. Another guy I would be shocked if they bring back: Chandler Parsons.

*BT: I wouldn't be shocked. The 2013-14 Rockets would have been great with D'Antoni. Parsons checks a lot of boxes. Play making wing, has length, can pass & shoot. Knees are a big problem. Purely from a skill set standpoint, he'd fit wonderfully. I wish he never left under such bitter circumstances. Purely from a basketball standpoint, he'd fit this team very well.

*C: He could be a solid addition. It feels like the last 12 months, the Rockets made missteps. Nothing has worked right for them. Bringing back Parsons at a healthy contract, I think to Morey saying you don't overpay the Parsons and here they'd be giving that same money. I'd be shocked.

*BT: Had they matched, he'd still be a FA right now and they'd have to offer a contract they'd offer now. In that sense, they lost 2 years of Chandler but not as if they'd be in a better financial position.

*C: We'll see. I could see the Rockets doing that but shocked on both.

*C: I mentioned some issues with Les. Going after D'Antoni was a shock. Not just going after him, which was against the basketball minds, but JVG did not get an interview. That showed more Les <strike>meddling</strike> controlling. I'm ready to move forward with D'Antoni but didn't feel offense was their problem. We'll see how it goes.

*BT: Agree that Les was heavily involved & JVG not getting an interview was Les' preference for D'Antoni. Had Les been more open, JVG gets an interview. Out of respect, they didn't want to waste his time.

*C: There's bitterness in the fan base. You have to win them back.

*BT: Even moves on their face that are decent, there won't be viewed "fairly". I wasn't thrilled with the D'Antoni hire but it was a decent hire. He can "succeed" and be a good HC for this team. It's not a disaster. It's a decent hire. He can do pretty well.

*C: Many were disappointed with the draft. Given where they were, not bad on the picks. ... Back to FA, Courtney Lee I like, Allen Crabbe, Brad Beal, no chance on those last two as RFA. Outside of that, if they're gonna wait this out, it's hard to see who they go after for big dollars.

*BT: What do the Rockets do if they don't get any big names? Do you overspend? They can offer Ryan Anderson the max & get him. Do you do that? A team structured on finding value when value is now thrown out the window, how does it mesh? I'm inclined to...I'd go with cheap young kids & try to win as many games as you can. Just having Harden you'll win a lot of games. I know fans don't want to hear it but see what you can do in 2017.

*C: I do not agree that the Rockets need to overspend because Harden is a FA in 2 years. That's how teams...LeBron with Cleveland the first go around...teams have done that & got in trouble. If Harden shows reluctance to be here, you move him in a year or 6 months. As great as he is,...if the team has to overspend & shatter value just to keep him here, you have to consider rebuilding. They have to make smart moves, not panic moves. They don't need to go crazy on guys who will help win 5 more games.

*BT: Agree. Harden is a FA in 2018, if we kick the can to 2017, Harden has a year left. How do you attract FAs then? It makes it hard to attract star FAs if our own star is one year away from leaving, left in limbo. Do you trade him in advance? History shows, if you want real value, you need to trade him 1 1/2 years before FA. I don't think the Rockets will be ready to give up Harden by the deadline this year. There's a balance to be met here about improving the team but not breaking the bank for mediocre players.

*C: Draft - I was disappointed they didn't make any moves. Staying at 37/43 and who they got(including UDFA), I was happy. Some disappointment from others. Chinanu, 19 years old, not a superstar in making but already a great defensive foundation. Capela will need help. Zhou Qi surprised me. Thought Demetrius Jackson would get more attention there. GP2 is a sneaky addition. Not a great all around offensive player but defensively could have a real impact in the league. They did ok in the draft. No assets to make a huge impact but added pieces for the future.

*BT: Agree. Fans complained they didn't trade up. NO had 39 & 30 and moved up to 33. If the Rockets were going to package their two picks, 33 would have been as high as they could get. I like Chinanu. You're looking for role players there. He has role player potential. Chinanu a young sophomore. Reminds me kind of a taller shot blocking Chuck Hayes. For years, we'd lament if he was 3-4 inches taller, he'd be a force. Chinanu has that potential. He's 6'10, strong lower body base, he has tremendous defensive potential. He'll be a Viper next year. Beyond that, I like the potential. Zhou Qi, we all laughed when the pick was made because it was the most Les Alexander pick. All the mock drafts had him in that range. If you told me before the draft, you're stuck with these picks, how do you want to go? I would have said one should be a draft & stash. He was the best D&S on the board. Will he be a great NBA player one day? Who knows. Intriguing talent. Long. Skinny as hell. I like the fact they got a stash pick there. The three UDFAs, this was the most length we had at PG since the Rockets waived Livingston. Tremendous defensive potential. Can't shoot worth a damn. Isaiah Taylor, he'll have an uphill battle. Explosive scoring point. Not sure he makes the team. Kyle Wiltjer, tremendous 3pt shooter. He has a chance to make the back end of the roster. Reminds me of a Bullard/Novak type. Not holding my breath but will have a nice year on the Vipers. Deep dive, he could be what Maarty Leunen could have been if they brought him over before they traded him. DraftExpress rankings, all these guys were pretty highly ranked. The last time the Rockets got 5 guys in the top 75, I'm guessing it's been awhile. Intriguing crop. No stars, some role players.

*C: As much as I like Daryl, he has to learn not to tell the press we're gonna move up, easy to move up, we have a trade. I don't know how many times it's happened but many times where he's talked about it & it hasn't happened. Fans were left disappointed. ... So here we go. Beyond Durant, it's unclear where they go. Dwight, Lin, Parsons throws me off. Horford, Conley, Anderson ... after that I have to see them waiting this out. They have the money. We'll see what they do.

 

I can't see how this team is going to jump from where they are into contention. You look at OKC and they are an amazing team with two super stars surrounded by roles players - role players who are better than anyone on our team with the exception of Harden. I mean seriously, would any of our role players even crack their rotation?

The gap is wide. Would conley and horford take us there? I am doubtful. I think the Rockets need to go after players who are going to set them up for a run in 2017-18 and stop chasing waterfalls.

 

DaDakota,

Skip to the 34:00 minute mark. You'll get a chuckle.

 

I think Bima's comment about the general malaise that Rockets Fans are under is most accurate. Everything seems to be viewed in a negative light after the hopes of last season blew up. This included them making in the playoffs and giving up on our 1st round draft pick.

Anyway good stuff. Thanks

 

Bima correctly predicted it...the rockets made him look like a fool! Just kidding!

The analysis was spot on as always, thanks guys.

 

If the Rockets miss out on the big fish and are left with Ryan Anderson, I would MUCH rather look at Luol Deng and Marvin Williams for the stretch PF spot. I don't know why Deng doesn't get talked about much. He is a 2 way player that can create his own shot.

 

Anyone watching this? I assume EST. I can't imagine anything actually happening...other than further discussions of what could happen.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tonight. 11:30 tip. Live breaking news from our NYC studios. <a href="https://t.co/bGOO6uUoXt">pic.twitter.com/bGOO6uUoXt</a></p>&mdash; Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojVerticalNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/WojVerticalNBA/status/748506360199929856">June 30, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

The thought of overspending on some of these free agents is a huge concern for me too. I cringe when I hear players like Ryan Anderson being signed for $18 million per season. I just see us getting into cap hell in 2 yrs if we make signings like that.

 

Bitterness indeed.

 

Lin won't come back - he thinks he is a starter and he is not going to be free to play his game here. He doesn't want to be a secondary playmaker, he wants to be primary.

 

Awesome, my meme has taken hold.

And Value-oriented does not say winner to me.

DD

 

Kick the can?

 

I agree only to an extent. It's more like the D'Antoni hire was the last straw that broke the camel's back.

Hiring D'Antoni in itself would not have angered so many fans. You have to put that in context. The whole sequence of events that culminated at hiring D'Antoni was a wake up call to a lot of fans about how this franchise was managed.