What will the minutes distribution of the guards look like?

No mention of kj?

 

Thorton- 10 minutes.
Beverly- 25 minutes
Harden- 31
Lawson- 30 minutes

 

PG: Lawson 32, Beverley 16
SG: Harden 35, Brewer 13

Brewer will steal minutes at SG IMO, I think they'll like having him in with Lawson while Harden sits to really bring some energy in the backcourt.

Only way Thornton gets real minutes is through injury. McDaniels may even end up being ahead of him in the pecking order, not to mention the possibility of Dekker impressing and garnering some PT at the wing (which shifts Brewer to more minutes at 2).

 

As has been obvious - we're in an era of positionless basketball, things aren't really going to be parceled out like that. It's a game of lineups and the Rockets rotation will probably not be big enough to include Thornton other than when injuries occur (which they will) as most coaches stick to 8 or 9 men, which in this case already includes Harden, Lawson, Beverley, Brewer, Howard, Ariza, Motiejunas, Chuck-apela, Jones.

Harden will play his customary 30+, Lawson will play around 30, Beverly will probably play 20-30 (ideally) other than that it's a crapshoot/spot duty

 

Brewer and Beverley will both get 20 minutes per game, unless you're just saying at those exact positions.

 

Sure, Brewer is getting 10+ minutes at SF in my scenario too.

Beverly I'm not so sure about (if Lawson plays up to his potential). I think 16-18 is more likely.

Very true. Probably more worthwhile to try to predict overall minutes distribution if you really want to try to predict this. Must equal 240 minutes (48 min x 5 players)

Harden 35
Ariza 32 (I hope, he clearly regressed offensively with his workload last year)
Lawson 32
Howard 28
Moteijunas 28
T.Jones 25
Brewer 22
Beverley 17
Capela 15

= 234 minutes to shuffle around out of the guys that are pretty well locks for playing time, leaving an average of 6 minutes for guys like Thornton, Mcdaniels, Dekker, Hayes. Those guys are pretty clearly depth guys.

 

Gotcha. My mistake!

Beverley probably gets to 20 simply because he can play with Harden, Lawson, or even both in some cases. I imagine they'll want to limit him to keep him healthy, though.

 

I think Beverley hits 20. I can see us running with Lawson and Beverley on the court together in short spurts that would push bev over the 20 mark.

 

There's no saying. You can bet on lawson and harden getting 30 minutes. Beverly obviously being the second big minute off the bench. Thornton and kJ could always be random. My guess is just depends on who's hot.

 

I wonder if McHale will adjust the rotations based on matchups. I'd love to see us put KJ on, like, Westbrook.

 

You cant really set minutes for anyone other than Harden/Lawson

Maybe you guys didnt watch the regular season but there were a ton of games where the starters came with no "energy" and McHale had no problem pulling them and giving other guys minutes.

Harden and Lawson are the only play makers on the team, they will get theirs everyone else we're just guessing

 

It's too hard to assign minutes to specific positions in today's NBA where PGs sometime play SG, SGs play SF or even PF at times, etc.

There are 240 total minutes in an NBA game for all 5 positions. I think minutes should be spread like this:

PG: Beverley - 24 minutes (I like the idea of Pat being the pseudo-starter ala Thabo Sefolosha during his Thunder days)
SG: Harden - 34 minutes (I really hope that where we can keep his minutes this season)
SF: Ariza - 32 minutes (Same for Ariza as with Harden)
PF: DMo - 28 minutes
C: Howard - 30 minutes (We should try to put Howard in a Duncan-esque schedule i.e. no more than 30mpg and sit out some back to backs)
6: Lawson - 30 minutes (Love if Lawson can be out super-sub)
7: Brewer - 24 minutes
8: Jones - 20 minutes
9: Capela - 18 minutes (We really need him to get big minutes and even start games when Howard rest)
10: Thornton - Really needs to become a solid shooter to get consistent minutes. TBD
11: McDaniels - Probably split time in RGV or as an insurance if Ariza/Brewer get hurt. I like K.J but he may be tradebait.
12: Hayes - Insurance / Mentor
IR1: Dekker - RGV
IR2: Harrell - RGV

I think we are going to roll with a 9 man rotation with Thornton, McDaniels, Hayes and the rookies getting minutes sparingly or as insurance. If we can get a 3rd string PG (Terry?), we are literally 3 deep at every position. Love the depth on this team.

 

If it's position-less basketball, why on earth would you sit Thornton?

I really doubt he signed here to sit. You can play Thornton-Harden, Thornton-Lawson, Beverley-Harden, and Lawson-Harden, maybe even Lawson-Beverley.

Thornton will likely play at least 10 mins a game.

Harden-30
Lawson-30
Beverly- 25
Thornton-11

But of course, from night to night, it depends on matchups.

 

I thought Thornton was brought in because he is a good shooter - he's streaky, sure - but his shot is one of the few things he is above average at. I think KJ gets more playing time than you think but his minutes will be up and down because he is going to be more of a "unit" guy - he would be in the 'switch everything defensive unit' guarding any position from 1-4. Thornton is likely in the "shooters" offensive unit.

I really think the Rockets will surprise us with less minutes given to anyone not named Lawson/Harden. It just seems like the empirical data is starting to emerge that gives some concept of a line between peak athletic efficiency and productivity. I think the Spurs have already proved there is merit to it - I wouldn't be surprised if this is the year that Morey starts experimenting more with different lineups, reduced minutes, etc.

 

KJ hasn't really showed he belongs out there. He's going to make some impressive plays, if you let him sink or swim for 35 minutes, but we can't afford to do that. He really needs to go to RGV and work on his offense and confidence.

 

Harden is gonna get 34-36, my guess would be closer to 36. Doubt anyone else in the rotation is much higher than 30.

 

Harden and Beverley's minutes need to come down.

Harden averaged 36.8 vs Steph Curry's 32.7. Doesn't seem like much, but over the coarse of a season that's a difference of 9-10 games. If we can get Harden down in the Steph Curry area, I'll be satisfied.

Beverley's style demands that he gets plenty of rest. If you look back at his first season, he was playing 17 minutes per, shot 37.5% from 3, and played excellent on-ball defense. I'd like to see him down in the 24 minutes per game range, similar to Brewer.

Lawson has averaged about 35 per game for the last 4 seasons. Similar to Harden, I think he would benefit from less minutes to help keep him fresh. I'll estimate 30 MPG.

I see Thornton getting more minutes than some expect. He is our Jason Terry this year, who got 21 minutes per as a 3 point specialist. That's around where I see Thornton.

33 - Harden
30 - Lawson
24 - Beverley
20 - Thornton

107 Minutes total. That means you've got 11 minutes per game of small ball (or 3 guards on the court), which sounds about right.

 

Lawson - 30
Beverley - 10
Harden - 36
Thornton - 10
McDaniels - 10

 

i think thornton gets spot minutes, with brewer getting most of time backing up the 2/3.

ariza (34) - brew (20)
harden (34) - thornton (6)
lawson (30) - bev (20)