Kind of a weird stat to post? Hard to give up runs if no one is on base. I would be more interested in his triple slash lines with batters in both situations.
Glad Appel is pithing well. Also glad he wasn't traded at the deadline. Even if the trade would have propelled the Astros into the playoffs. This is baseball, where money doesn't translate to wins, so because a talented individual is brought in, does not always mean more wins. Baseball is a lot about chemistry. Right now I'm a huge Cole Hammel fan for nixing the trade to the Astros. I don't know if Appel would have been included in such a deal, but my logic thinks he would have. Also for anyone downgrading Appel because he doesn't project to be a staff Ace, when you already have someone like Keutchel as the Ace, all you are looking for is that strong front 3 guys. Keutchel Kasmir McCullers Feldman Fiers McHugh Velasquez Appel Musgrove Feliz That is quite the stable of guys!!! I wonder if the Astros will put out a major contract for Kasmir? McCullers and Velasquez are practically ready to join the rotation next year. McHugh is a bulldog. Fiers was an integral piece of the Bret Phillips trade. Appel is showing signs he might be ready! Feldman is showing why he's always been regarded as a workhorse. Musgrove is mowing down AA. Feliz is showing so much flash! I'm assuming that Appel must be in the rotation next year. Keutchel McCullers Velasquez Fiers Appel So would the Astros trade Feldman, McHugh, let Kasimir walk? What about fragility of new arms? What a great problem to have. I'm sure a lot of GM's would like to have Luhnow's problem. But Appel is showing what made him the concensus #1 talent 2 years in a row (2012 and 2013).
The team should re-sign Kazmir unless the money gets too crazy. You can't count on Velasquez to be healthy. I do think you trade Feldman, or even see if somebody wants to pay big for Fiers/McHugh. You could also move Velasquez for a young controllable bat. My rotation for next season: Keuchel McCullers Kazmir Fiers McHugh Velasquez moves to the bullpen to hopefully serve as the closer.
There is too much value in Velasquez as a starter long term, for them to just make him the closer next year. I think he would have to fail as a starter I believe. Corpus Christi did use him in the ninth inning yesterday though. It will be interesting if they put him in the pen later this season and in the playoffs.
I know the Astros are in the thick of things right now. But, after year and years for following the Minor and perpetually projecting the future starting rotation and the playing rotation, I am stumped when it comes to where to project the minor league talent. Velasquez was being called the most advanced arm in the system, but because of the injuries was rated a lot lower than his talent dictated. McCullers who had been casted off as a prospect on the downward slide, just mauled AA and then did the same to the MLB until his last outing which went 1/3 inning and yielded 6 runs. Musgrove is pitching like a stud, and the Astros are taking notes! Appel with all of his arsenal is making huge tides and is getting quite dominant results. The list goes on an on it sems!!! It is going to be hard going with Velasquez, McCullers, Appel in the starting rotation. But whom do you trade for? The OF is stacked with Springer, Tucker, Gomez, and all of the top talent in the Minors (Tucker, Cameron, Fisher). What about 3rd base, but Lowrie is there and so is Moran and JD Davis! What about 1st base. Well Singleton is still there, and so is AJ Reed! The Astros have such a glut of talent everywhere, that they will need to trade away the talent just to give guys their chance of playing in the Major!!! Gone are the days when we'd all be looking at guys like Nolan Fontana as the future of the franchise!! No disrespect to Fontana, whom I do root for to make it to the Bigs!!!
Aroldis Chapman was originally going to be a starter, and for a few years they discussed moving him into the rotation, but it never happened. His injury history and production so far as a starter make it very questionable to how valuable he will be as a starter. Right now he isn't easily better than McHugh/Fiers and maybe his stuff will play better out of the pen. I'm all for developing as many arms as possible to be starters, where there is more value, but the MLB club will only use 5 arms regularly, and Velasquez is the guy least trustworthy in terms of making 30 starts.
I'd guess that is true with most elite relievers. Just looking at recent Astro history: Lidge was a starter in the minors (and started a couple of MLB games). Wagner was a starter in the minors. Dotel started in the majors. Hell, Mariano Rivera was a starter. There's also a litany of former elite relievers who ended up becoming very good starters (Wainwright and Derek Lowe come to mind). A lot of it comes down to the needs of the big league club at the time... along with the overall effectiveness of the starting pitcher in question. VV has not been bad... and he should have every chance to be a long-term starter. He's still very young and has more minor league success as a starter than some of the previously mentioned Astros. If he fails, or never gets past mediocre, you convert him. Or if he takes to the reliever spot very naturally (much like Lidge, Dotel, Wagner did), you see what the needs of the team are and make that decision if needed. It should be a fluid decision... regardless of what happens the rest of this season.
The tough question is, do you potentially preempt a major injury for a guy who has a history of injuries by moving him to the pen now, rather than waiting for him to fail as a starter while opening him to more injury risk in the meantime?
I don't think its ever been proven that high-use relievers are less injury prone than starters... has it? I know Smoltz (who would have first-hand knowledge) said he thought being a closer/high-volume reliever actually put more strain on his arm/elbow than when he was a starter.... These guys are still warming up in the bullpen frequently, and the more "easy" innings they throw, the more appearances they rack up (which goes along with more bullpen warming up, etc.).... and then they occasionally get a game where they have to give a little bit more to get out of a jam. Whereas starters could technically have a set routine in between games, and try to maximize the recovery period for the arm... again, I don't know what is truly worse, but I don't think one is significantly worse than the other.
And while we're talking about it... I could easily see Appel possibly converting (and having a high probability of success) as a reliever... IF he ultimately failed as a starter. Thus why I don't think the Astros give up on him any time soon.... they've already invested in him, his value isn't all that high right now, and he's still got a very good arm.
Yes, on paper it "should be"... but then again, you're not accounting for the increased frequency of throwing those fewer innings, less time in between appearances (less time for the arm to recover which does increase injury risk), more warming up/sitting down/warming up within games... Again, just relaying what former pitchers have said. I also believe Wainwright thought the transition to starter (where he knew when he'd be pitching, and how he'd need his arm to feel prior to that) was much less taxing than when he first started closing (after being a career starter in the minors). Of course, we're talking about pitchers (Smoltz, Wainwright) who have had an extreme amount of success in both roles... so they did have a "choice". Some guys don't have a choice because they're simply better at one role than another. I still don't think prophylactically making somebody a reliever due to previous health issues is a worthwhile decision... unless that pitcher struggles to be effective as a starter as well.
In my mind, it seems like starters require TJS more often, including Wainwright and Smoltz. Even his bad luck torn achilles this season doesn't happen if he is in the pen, because he wouldn't be batting.
Unless you are stupidly dominant, relievers have very low value. If you have a guy that you think can start, you use him as a starter until he demonstrates that he can't be good at it. I wouldn't be opposed to using Velasquez out of the pen this year, but he has shown flashes of success as a starter. If he can hammer out a few issues, I can easily see him being a TOR level starter. I wouldn't want to give up on that long term after a handful of starts. Same with Appel, it's gonna be an interesting offseason. Keuchel and McCullers are locked in, but the other 3 rotation spots are a mystery.
I guess I saw a guy like Smoltz move to the bullpen after arm troubles. And I feel like we've seen that in the past as well. Nothing is coming to mind immediately, but I thought that was a decision people made if someone was known to have arm issues. If Smoltz says otherwise, then maybe not. I agree, warming up on multiple days could make it different. At the same time, SP's throw bullpen sessions on a lot of their off days. I have a hard time believing they're not throwing significantly more (when you count practice, warmup, and game action) than RPs
A mystery...but one with multiple options that are at least "good". So the mystery is figuring out the best of a ton of good options. Which is a pretty great position to be in!
