Zach Lowe: Terrence Jones could be asking for $15M per year

He played well for like 15 games, and mediocre to poorly the rest of the games. I don't blame him though, he is what he is, an athletic hustle player. Those guys are going to be hot and cold as they are dependent on the availability of hustle plays and on other setting them up. Kenneth Faried got paid big by Denver for being a better version of that....but if you can do better, which the Rockets can, why would you want to settle for the athletic hustle guy?

 

In fact, the Rockets did choose to do better, which is why he got benched in the playoffs almost 2 full months after the 3 week injury he suffered near the end of the regular season that some want to blame his terrible performance on.

I get that some people don't want to admit they were wrong about the guy, but his time here is running out unless he becomes a better player than he's ever been before.

 

$15 million over 3 years more like it. (And that's somewhat scary.)

 

He'll get a lot more than that, just not from the Rockets. There will be someone who looks only at raw numbers and ignores the context the numbers happen that throws decently large numbers at him....probably not a good team, but some team.

 

A dollar for every missed layup.

 

Regardless if he becomes better or not, I don't think he'll be in a Rockets uniform next season.

 

Well I could see it if by some miracle his game progressed to where he was a better player than DMo, he might be the PF to get the new deal instead of DMo.

 

IMO I still don't think we would give him that contract. If his game progresses more than DMo, I think we would still trade him at the deadline.

I just think that if TJones stays healthy and improves this season, we would get more value out of trading him than waiting for the off-season and signing him to X amount of money.

 

You and Hollic are totally missing the point, and ignorantly arguing with the wind. NOBODY... I mean NOBODY was saying he was planned to be anything more than what he is. A mid first round pick who has been there as a serviceable versatile big who has been there for the team in times of desperation at the PF position to at least fill in on the cheap for 3 straight years. If the Rockets could have done better, as you and Hollic preach with no evidence, they would have done better.

The people who argue with you, are not arguing that he's the second coming of Neo from the matrix. The chosen one if you will. They are simply arguing against your arguments that he's complete trash that needs to be taken out yesterday. HUGE difference.

You two are totally... I mean completely missing any relevant point of discussion after who knows how many pages of merry go round arguments. You are consumed with tearing something down, when nobody was trying to build anything up beyond expectations. The only person I know of that has said anything with lofty expectations is Clyde Drexler when he called him a future all-star, and Bill and Bull sort of had a moment of "ugh...."....

However its totally and completely acceptable to realize when something isn't the greatest thing ever, but also isn't a cancer or a boil that needs to be lanced.

Let the hate campaign stop for the love of (pick your own deity)... please???

You want to talk about who is wrong and who was right. Why dont you two guys look at yourselves in the mirror. People like Hollic are the ones who in November of 2013 wanted to trade Jones AND D-Mo because apparently Casspi was a better option, and because they were about to lose trade value. How many times have these same folks been wrong that Jones is SO BAD that he will be outplayed by virtually anyone, and yet year after year, Jones seems to keep on getting the nod as the best option on the roster for the minutes he's given???.... Conspiracy from the coaches???... Is Morey that bad of a GM that he can't find land anyone better in free agency that can beat him out???

I'm just at a loss for words. WE are the ones who are wrong here? What were you two guys ever right about???... That Terrence Jones ISNT a future superstar.... again, you are arguing with the wind because NOBODY is saying that.


*TBH... I don't think you are a bad poster, or anything close to as intolerable as the "other guy", but on this particular topic, I'm just asking politely... Its time to stop the campaign. Por Favor.

 

You know Dobro its so hard to tell what their going to get with limited minute guys like Aaron Baynes getting payed $20 million for 3 years. I never thought Gordon Haywood was a max player and look what he got last off season.

You would think the cheapest and best route would be go to war with both this upcoming season and either wait for the trade deadline to move one as part of an upgrade or finish the season and sign one then let the other walk as a free agent.

IMO I don't think Morey gives either player away for peanuts especially TJ who a couple of the Minions in the garm want to see sold down the river for scraps. DMO had a nice breakout season and I would love to see him build from that if his back is ok. TJ had a injury riddled season while only being able to play 33 regular season games and if your objective he wasn't the same player after his collapsed lung injury.

I think the rockets value both very highly, but if Jones can come back with the same explosion he started the season with and "if" he can stay healthy he's capable of putting up big numbers especially playing with a pass first quarterback like Ty Lawson. I wanna see ball dumped down to DMO in the post much much more and be more aggressive in attacking when he has the ball. And both players need to rebound much better especially DMO, when the rockets rebound well they usually win.

Go Rockets.

 

The problem is that you see it as some sort of "hate campaign" when that's simply not the case. All I'm doing is pointing out the inaccurate portrayal of Jones as a likely contender for the starting job next season if both he and DMo are healthy. That really shouldn't be a controversial position and isn't a "hate campaign" as you want to make it seem like.

I also point out that the Rockets are extremely unlikely to pay 15 mil a year for someone like Jones who is a backup on their team. Again, not a controversial position.

Some like to gloss over the fact that about a year and a half ago people were talking up Jones as a future All Star talent.....and it wasn't just Clyde, and completely dismissing DMo as an NBA player. Those people were wrong then, and those who still cling to that are wrong now.

Jones is a decent but not great backup PF who can have flashes of brilliance every once in a while, but overall is fairly mediocre. When you look at what he actually does well, it comes down to athleticism and hustle (and the hustle isn't consistent). He's not a great rebounder, he's not a great or even good shooter, he can sort of handle the ball for a big man but he's not great at it, he can make open dunks, he can sometimes get flashy blocks, but other times is completely out of position or unaware of what is happening on defense.

He's pretty close to the same today as he was a few years ago. A guy with great athleticism that has the physical talent to maybe turn into something one day....but how many years are you going to keep waiting for that to happen? Maybe one day he turns into Josh Smith or Kenneth Faried, but he's not there now and probably won't be there next year either. That's not hate, that's just analysis. Maybe it looks hateful next to the glowing reviews of his personal fans, but I can't help that. To Lin fans, Jeremy Lin was the greatest thing ever, compared to that a legit analysis of Lin's game would look like "hating", but it wouldn't be.

 

(*cough*) I think they're the same guy.... (*cough*)

This. ^

Again....(*cough*) I think they're the same guy.... (*cough*)....

 

None of that is very controversial, but I see time and time again trying to crumble down any resemblance of quality and value that the guy has brought and has for the team. Its the constant argument against any positive conversation about the situation that accumulates into conclusion of being overwhelmingly geared to destroy the perception we have of the guy, and I find that to be pretty bad for an already very jadded fanbase to absorb on a daily basis.

Even with Lin, as awful is he was, didn't deserve the negative perception that he got. It was mostly due to the overwhelming nonsense from the LOF crazies, but that had nothing to do with the person or player. He still had some value to the team while on it that we should still recognize. The Rockets were better off moving on, and they did. What's done is done.

(Same could be said about Matt Schaub... is it his fault that he kept on beating out other QB options? Did he deserve to constantly be trashed, and even confronted by idiot fans at his home? Yes we all wanted Peyton Manning, but not everyone can have that. We all want LaMarcus Aldridge at PF, but this is the real world folks).

I guess we just disagree that there are really people out there that think Jones is the next great superstar other than Clyde. I certainly don't remember anything more than pretty objective analysis on here that he's young (been the youngest on the team for 3 years now until Capela was drafted), and IF he improves, he can be a good player.

Its the constant beating of the drum that he's complete garbage that drowns out any recognition of value he's had, and will continue to have this year if he's not traded before or during the season.

-The 15 million dollar thing is being blown out of proportion, and people simply aren't reading fully or listening to what Lowe is getting at. Its very much a non issue for the Rockets, and fans just don't get it.

If the Rockets are over paying Terrence Jones next year, its probably because the Rockets landed Kevin Durant. Shouldn't we be celebrating that possibility instead of groaning like an angry mob?

I think both are highly unlikely, but it doesn't mean that Jones needs to be traded ASAP. They need other assurances to be met first like making sure his role has been upgraded and D-Mo is healthy first. I know you are much more confident on this as you think what he does is very easily replaceable which I would respond by saying... If he's that easily replaceable, why hasn't he been beaten out, and replaced for two straight seasons?

The guy keeps on finding his way in the rotation year after year for whatever reason. Blame the coaches, blame Morey, or blame the other players for not doing enough to beat him out... just leave me out of it. That's a fact that you just cannot keep sweeping under the rug. I know its painful for you guys to even fathom or admit, but Unfortunately, the Rockets just very well might need him again this year (even though, I hope we are so full of talent at the 4 spot that we don't need him obviously).

Now, can we agree enough to move on to more rational discussion???

 

If you want to price a player accurately, you need to consider how his productivity will track over time and the likelihood of different outcomes. In addition, you have to keep track of the salary cap and how to adjust your salaries accordingly. Some of the front offices out there are showing they can't handle these issues simultaneously. They seem to be focusing on salary cap growth, which with the boom, would encourage you to give out huge contracts to any player that has a chance of becoming a star, no matter how small. But they are not devoting enough effort to evaluating actual productivity. The harder to emulate part of the Harden trade is that Morey did an amazing job figuring out how good Harden is. GMs who try to pretend Eric Bledsoe or Reggie Jackson is the next Harden just end up with crappy teams. The salary cap bump may end up making the Bledsoes and Jacksons worth their contracts, but Harden is going to far outperform his contract even when he gets his next raise.

 

If you were thinking you wouldn't have thought that.

Fair.

 

LMFBO LMFBO. I'm crying from laughter Rox good stuff.

 

And how do you quantify that? Where's your context for him being injured for most of last season? Do you take that into account in your assessment?

No he still looks above average.

Did that and TJones fairs pretty well, especially looking at when he played a full season last season. Ranks pretty high in PER and Win Shares.

Do you think a lot of that is due to injuries last season? TJones ranked pretty well in metrics for 13-14 when he started in 71 games and played in 76.

I did and I've come to the conclusion you either have some personal against TJones or perhaps you forgot to carry the 1 in your calculations. TJones in reality just doesn't seem to match your description of him.

 

Carry the 1, eh????

We'll look back in a few years and be able to see who knew their math.

Terrence is a JAP. He'll meander around the league. He may be out of the league in as little as 2 years or he may meander around the league for 10 years. Most likely somewhere in between. He'll put up generic numbers and never make a top 7 rotation contribution to a championship team. He may be on a championship team but it'll be in an end-of-the-bench role as an obscure 8th through 13th man.

This is my assessment of Terrence and I'm sticking to it. And I've got plenty of analytic support for what I believe the truth is about Terrence.

We'll see who's right somewhere down the road in the future.

 

A few years ago he was in the DLeague. TJones played well in 2013-2014 in the context of a 3rd year NBA player starting at PF for the first time. It seems you are just dismissing his injuries and his DLeague time.

Do you realize he's only been in 128 out of 246 NBA regular season games in the 3 seasons he's been a Rocket?