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Lawson trade

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jayfree, Jul 10, 2015.

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rocketsballin Member

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wasnt a fan of trading for him in the first place. glad we didnt. with dmo expected to top last seasons breakout year and dwight being healthy, harden's workload goes way down from last season. it would be nice to have an actual pg on the team but w/e. guess we're gonna go for a backup to split minutes with bev

#621 rocketsballin, Jul 16, 2015

malakas Member

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Clown Baby said: ↑

Offensively, we count on James so much as a ball-handler. I think you could argue that no one player was more valuable to his team on offense than Harden was to his.

These are our top 6 minute getters on the team and next to their name is the On/Off rating those guys had on the offensive end of the floor this past season...

Code:

[B]Net Off. Rtg On Off Net[/B] [COLOR="Red"]Harden 110.6 96.6 +14.0[/COLOR] Ariza 107.1 107.1 +0.0 Motiejunas 106.8 107.4 -0.6 Beverley 107.7 106.7 +1.0 Terry 105.4 108.3 -2.9 Brewer 107.9 106.6 +1.3

Based on the on/off data, it's obvious who our most important offensive player is. Our offense falls off the face of the planet when James hits the bench. For perspective, the 76ers offense had a league-worst 95.5 ORtg and our Rockets barely scored at a higher rate than that when Harden was on the bench.

None of our other players show a real impact in terms of on/off stats on offense. An ORtg of 105.6 is the league average, and our Rockets maintain an above-average mark when all of the other top 5 minutes getters sit on the bench.

So 76ers bad on O when Harden sits, no worse than league average when anyone else sits. Harden's +14.0 On/Off mark is one of the highest in the leagues, but what makes it stand out even more is the fact that none of his teammates who received big minutes also have BIG On/Off numbers on offense. It really shows what a one-man show he is when it comes to creating for himself and others in this offense.

After I saw the Rockets' numbers, I wanted to see the On/Off Offensive stats for the Top 6 minutes getters of the other top teams in the league.

Code:

[COLOR="Black"][I]Net Offensive Rtg On/Off[/I][/COLOR] [B]Team #1min #2min #3min #4min #5min #6min [/B] LAC +19.9 +16.4 +10.2 +14.0 +10.9 -4.0 GSW +14.3 +8.5 +10.5 +1.4 -1.6 +3.4 [B][COLOR="Red"]HOU[/COLOR] [COLOR="Red"][U]+14.0[/U]![/COLOR] [COLOR="Red"]+0.0 -0.6 +1.0 -2.9 +1.3 [/COLOR][/B] ATL +12.1 +6.5 +2.7 +4.3 +2.4 -5.2 OKC +10.9 +1.3 +3.2 -1.9 +2.6 -2.1 CLE +10.3 +4.8 +12.3 +3.6 +3.3 -4.5 MEM +7.7 +4.5 +7.3 +5.9 +3.4 -3.8 POR +7.2 +7.9 +4.0 +1.4 +3.2 -2.9 NOP +6.8 +7.8 +1.4 -3.1 +2.3 -1.6 WAS +5.4 +4.1 +6.3 +3.1 +2.7 -2.5 SAS +5.3 +0.2 +5.5 -0.8 +3.0 -0.2 DAL +1.3 +0.1 +4.2 +3.2 +1.8 +0.2 CHI +0.3 +4.0 -2.3 +4.1 +1.8 -1.3 TOR -1.2 +5.8 -3.4 -7.1 +1.8 +7.1

Look at that, those are all the relevant teams in the NBA last year. And not a single one of them depended more on one offensive player. The Thunder are the only other NBA team this year who show a similar dependence on one offensive star, but since James is a better offensive cornerstone than Westbrook the difference was even more noticeable with Houston.

Harden with a +14.0 mark, while none of the other Top 6 minutes getters on the team has a mark above +1.3. That really stands out because every single other relevant team in basketball this year had a player atleast 2 players who had a +2.0 mark on basketball outside of the #1 mins player.

Look at GSW and LAC, the only two teams who showed a bigger offensive dependence on their #1 min getters. For Golden State, you can see how the #2 and #3 mins getters (Green and Klay) also have a serious impact on the offensive end. Curry is the engine of that O, but he's not the only piece who makes a bigtime difference on that end. CP3's +19.3 mark is incredible, but taking a look at the rest of the Clippers top mins getters shows you how top heavy those guys were. That entire lineup with Griffin and Jordan and Redick is just incredible on offense, while their bench is just awful which is why their ORtg falls apart.

None of the other teams depend on one player to be so valuable on offense. The balance of the Spurs' roster really shows up in this metric since there's no one player who has a monster impact on the Spurs' offense.

We have a very intriguing team. Finished 2nd in the WC regular season despite injuries, finished 2nd in the WC playoffs despite injuries. With Dmo/Jones/Smoove/Dwight/Capela, we have a really deep stable of bigs who each bring something unique to the table. Ariza/Brewer/KJ/Dekker would also make for a really intriguing group of wing athletes who can all run and jump, led by Ariza and his valuable 3nD game. But our clear weakness as a team is the fact that we have no secondary creator at all which kills us when Harden goes on the bench.

WHERE LAWSON COMES IN:
James was the runner-up in the MVP race for a reason. The man means everything to our offense. We fall apart when he is out of the game, and when he's in the game our offense can go stagnant at times due to revolving around him too much.

James played 36.8 MPG last year. If we had a better secondary creator like Lawson, I don't see why we couldn't bring Beard down to 35 MPG. I'd play Lawson 28 MPG and Beverley 20-22 MPG.

That leaves 13 MPG that Lawson can come be the #1 offensive creator for. And make no mistake, Lawson is a very valuable offensive player (+11.0 Ortg on/off) who can really do some damage with a finisher like Dwight inside. Lawson/Brewer fastbreaks would also have the potential to be a huge asset in terms of getting easy buckets when James is sitting on the bench. If we had Lawson, our O wouldn't turn into the 76ers O when Harden sits. They'd remain at a respectable level at the very least, maybe even league average or better.

So with 13 of Lawson's mins coming with Harden out of the game, that would leave only roughly 15 MPG for Lawson to play next to Harden. I can understand the concerns people have for that backcourt defensively, but Ariza/DMo/Dwight is a great defensive combo behind them that will limit the damage that backcourt gives up. This is the reason why we pay Dwight the big bucks, his rim protection can really help protect a Lawson/Harden backcourt defensively.

And I think Harden/Lawson have the potential to play really well on offense off of each other for those 15 mins. I think Harden's catch-n-shoot and cutting skills would be utilized more with Lawson, leading to a higher FG% for the Beard than we've seen in recent years. Lawson and Harden can both suck in defenses and set each other up for some open shots. A Lawson/Harden backcourt has a lot more firepower than a Bev/Harden backcourt.

I would tell Lawson straight up that he wouldn't be a 35 MPG full-time starter here. He'd be a 28 MPG part-time starter/6th man who would be the sparkplug when Harden is sitting out and provide a different offensive look next to Harden when they're both in. I think this would allow us to unleash a more energetic Bev who could make more of an impact on D with less playmaking responsibility. If Lawson would rather play 35 MPG for a bad team, let him. But this is the best spot for him in terms of Championship contention + Minutes by far.

Lawson is an idiot. All these DUIs and all these stories about him indicate that he is an immature brat. He's definitely a potentially toxic character but I think the risk is definitely worth the reward, because he could be the guy that puts us over the top as a true Championship-contender. His value is rock-bottom right now and I think he just makes too much sense for us even if he has his negatives.
Click to expand...

amazing post. Repped.

But I disagree in the end only that this is the best spot for him. This is only our interpretation as fans of the Rockets. He has other ...priorities and criteria and being a starter is one of the most important.
#622 malakas, Jul 16, 2015
larsv8 Member

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Clown Baby said: ↑

Offensively, we count on James so much as a ball-handler. I think you could argue that no one player was more valuable to his team on offense than Harden was to his.

These are our top 6 minute getters on the team and next to their name is the On/Off rating those guys had on the offensive end of the floor this past season...

Code:

[B]Net Off. Rtg On Off Net[/B] [COLOR="Red"]Harden 110.6 96.6 +14.0[/COLOR] Ariza 107.1 107.1 +0.0 Motiejunas 106.8 107.4 -0.6 Beverley 107.7 106.7 +1.0 Terry 105.4 108.3 -2.9 Brewer 107.9 106.6 +1.3

Based on the on/off data, it's obvious who our most important offensive player is. Our offense falls off the face of the planet when James hits the bench. For perspective, the 76ers offense had a league-worst 95.5 ORtg and our Rockets barely scored at a higher rate than that when Harden was on the bench.

None of our other players show a real impact in terms of on/off stats on offense. An ORtg of 105.6 is the league average, and our Rockets maintain an above-average mark when all of the other top 5 minutes getters sit on the bench.

So 76ers bad on O when Harden sits, no worse than league average when anyone else sits. Harden's +14.0 On/Off mark is one of the highest in the leagues, but what makes it stand out even more is the fact that none of his teammates who received big minutes also have BIG On/Off numbers on offense. It really shows what a one-man show he is when it comes to creating for himself and others in this offense.

After I saw the Rockets' numbers, I wanted to see the On/Off Offensive stats for the Top 6 minutes getters of the other top teams in the league.

Code:

[COLOR="Black"][I]Net Offensive Rtg On/Off[/I][/COLOR] [B]Team #1min #2min #3min #4min #5min #6min [/B] LAC +19.9 +16.4 +10.2 +14.0 +10.9 -4.0 GSW +14.3 +8.5 +10.5 +1.4 -1.6 +3.4 [B][COLOR="Red"]HOU[/COLOR] [COLOR="Red"][U]+14.0[/U]![/COLOR] [COLOR="Red"]+0.0 -0.6 +1.0 -2.9 +1.3 [/COLOR][/B] ATL +12.1 +6.5 +2.7 +4.3 +2.4 -5.2 OKC +10.9 +1.3 +3.2 -1.9 +2.6 -2.1 CLE +10.3 +4.8 +12.3 +3.6 +3.3 -4.5 MEM +7.7 +4.5 +7.3 +5.9 +3.4 -3.8 POR +7.2 +7.9 +4.0 +1.4 +3.2 -2.9 NOP +6.8 +7.8 +1.4 -3.1 +2.3 -1.6 WAS +5.4 +4.1 +6.3 +3.1 +2.7 -2.5 SAS +5.3 +0.2 +5.5 -0.8 +3.0 -0.2 DAL +1.3 +0.1 +4.2 +3.2 +1.8 +0.2 CHI +0.3 +4.0 -2.3 +4.1 +1.8 -1.3 TOR -1.2 +5.8 -3.4 -7.1 +1.8 +7.1

Look at that, those are all the relevant teams in the NBA last year. And not a single one of them depended more on one offensive player. The Thunder are the only other NBA team this year who show a similar dependence on one offensive star, but since James is a better offensive cornerstone than Westbrook the difference was even more noticeable with Houston.

Harden with a +14.0 mark, while none of the other Top 6 minutes getters on the team has a mark above +1.3. That really stands out because every single other relevant team in basketball this year had a player atleast 2 players who had a +2.0 mark on basketball outside of the #1 mins player.

Look at GSW and LAC, the only two teams who showed a bigger offensive dependence on their #1 min getters. For Golden State, you can see how the #2 and #3 mins getters (Green and Klay) also have a serious impact on the offensive end. Curry is the engine of that O, but he's not the only piece who makes a bigtime difference on that end. CP3's +19.3 mark is incredible, but taking a look at the rest of the Clippers top mins getters shows you how top heavy those guys were. That entire lineup with Griffin and Jordan and Redick is just incredible on offense, while their bench is just awful which is why their ORtg falls apart.

None of the other teams depend on one player to be so valuable on offense. The balance of the Spurs' roster really shows up in this metric since there's no one player who has a monster impact on the Spurs' offense.

We have a very intriguing team. Finished 2nd in the WC regular season despite injuries, finished 2nd in the WC playoffs despite injuries. With Dmo/Jones/Smoove/Dwight/Capela, we have a really deep stable of bigs who each bring something unique to the table. Ariza/Brewer/KJ/Dekker would also make for a really intriguing group of wing athletes who can all run and jump, led by Ariza and his valuable 3nD game. But our clear weakness as a team is the fact that we have no secondary creator at all which kills us when Harden goes on the bench.

WHERE LAWSON COMES IN:
James was the runner-up in the MVP race for a reason. The man means everything to our offense. We fall apart when he is out of the game, and when he's in the game our offense can go stagnant at times due to revolving around him too much.

James played 36.8 MPG last year. If we had a better secondary creator like Lawson, I don't see why we couldn't bring Beard down to 35 MPG. I'd play Lawson 28 MPG and Beverley 20-22 MPG.

That leaves 13 MPG that Lawson can come be the #1 offensive creator for. And make no mistake, Lawson is a very valuable offensive player (+11.0 Ortg on/off) who can really do some damage with a finisher like Dwight inside. Lawson/Brewer fastbreaks would also have the potential to be a huge asset in terms of getting easy buckets when James is sitting on the bench. If we had Lawson, our O wouldn't turn into the 76ers O when Harden sits. They'd remain at a respectable level at the very least, maybe even league average or better.

So with 13 of Lawson's mins coming with Harden out of the game, that would leave only roughly 15 MPG for Lawson to play next to Harden. I can understand the concerns people have for that backcourt defensively, but Ariza/DMo/Dwight is a great defensive combo behind them that will limit the damage that backcourt gives up. This is the reason why we pay Dwight the big bucks, his rim protection can really help protect a Lawson/Harden backcourt defensively.

And I think Harden/Lawson have the potential to play really well on offense off of each other for those 15 mins. I think Harden's catch-n-shoot and cutting skills would be utilized more with Lawson, leading to a higher FG% for the Beard than we've seen in recent years. Lawson and Harden can both suck in defenses and set each other up for some open shots. A Lawson/Harden backcourt has a lot more firepower than a Bev/Harden backcourt.

I would tell Lawson straight up that he wouldn't be a 35 MPG full-time starter here. He'd be a 28 MPG part-time starter/6th man who would be the sparkplug when Harden is sitting out and provide a different offensive look next to Harden when they're both in. I think this would allow us to unleash a more energetic Bev who could make more of an impact on D with less playmaking responsibility. If Lawson would rather play 35 MPG for a bad team, let him. But this is the best spot for him in terms of Championship contention + Minutes by far.

Lawson is an idiot. All these DUIs and all these stories about him indicate that he is an immature brat. He's definitely a potentially toxic character but I think the risk is definitely worth the reward, because he could be the guy that puts us over the top as a true Championship-contender. His value is rock-bottom right now and I think he just makes too much sense for us even if he has his negatives.
Click to expand...

Very nice.

Hopefully this shuts up the low information posters talking about irrelevant stuff.
#623 larsv8, Jul 16, 2015
micah1j Member

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Anyone know the date K-Papa's contract becomes guaranteed?

Anyone know the deadline to stretch a contract this year? IE if DEN buys out and stretches Lawson's contract to 5 years.

I think those will be important dates and deals could get done just before then.

#624 micah1j, Jul 16, 2015
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cbk41 said: ↑

Y'all think Brew could talk so sense into Lawson?
Click to expand...

I'm not sure. Lawson's problem is he likes to drink brew too much.

#625 rocketjunkie, Jul 16, 2015
SF3isBack!! Member

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DUI's are different from drugs and being a criminal. He can come back from this, he just has to choose who he hangs out with and for gods sake, get a driver.

#626 SF3isBack!!, Jul 16, 2015
malakas Member

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micah1j said: ↑

Anyone know the date K-Papa's contract becomes guaranteed?

Anyone know the deadline to stretch a contract this year? IE if DEN buys out and stretches Lawson's contract to 5 years.

I think those will be important dates and deals could get done just before then.
Click to expand...

Octomber.
And I don't think there is a deadline to stretching. If there is it is February or so, from what happened last year.

#627 malakas, Jul 16, 2015

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SF3isBack!! said: ↑

DUI's are different from drugs and being a criminal. He can come back from this, he just has to choose who he hangs out with and for gods sake, get a driver.
Click to expand...

2 DUIs in less than a year is a concern though. If the dude is a heavy drinker and likes to get behind the wheel after knocking back a few, he could wind up killing himself and/or someone else. There's no way you take on a 12 mil/yr contract for someone with that kind of record.

If he's cut and the Rockets wanna take a shot for a couple mil(like with Josh Smith), no problem. But I can't imagine Morey and Les trading for him given his behavior over the last year.

#628 count_dough-ku, Jul 16, 2015
malakas Member

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I asked this in the other thread too..but tomorrow he will go to court in Denver. Anyone knows if the process is automatic and will be fast or the verdict can take days?

#629 malakas, Jul 16, 2015
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malakas said: ↑

I asked this in the other thread too..but tomorrow he will go to court in Denver. Anyone knows if the process is automatic and will be fast or the verdict can take days?
Click to expand...

I don't think he is going to trial tomorrow. I think the DA requested a hearing with the judge because of the CA arrest and now the DA wants the ankle bracelet on Lawson, per the TMZ report I linked last night.

#630 micah1j, Jul 16, 2015
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Damn, Clown Baby...

Good stuff. Repped.

#631 baller4life315, Jul 16, 2015
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micah1j said: ↑

I don't think he is going to trial tomorrow. I think the DA requested a hearing with the judge because of the CA arrest and now the DA wants the ankle bracelet on Lawson, per the TMZ report I linked last night.
Click to expand...

He violated his previous agreement, so I don't think it goes before a jury again right?

#632 bulkatron, Jul 16, 2015
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micah1j said: ↑

Anyone know the deadline to stretch a contract this year? IE if DEN buys out and stretches Lawson's contract to 5 years.
Click to expand...

65. What happens when a player is released? What are waivers? What is the Stretch provision?

If the player is waived from July 1 to August 31, then his remaining salary is paid over twice the number of years remaining on his contract, plus one.

If the player is waived from September 1 to June 30, then the current season is paid per the normal payment schedule, and any remaining years are stretched over twice the number of years remaining plus one as described above.
Click to expand...

Report: Nuggets considering waiving Ty Lawson

But Lawson has a guaranteed contract. It’s nearly impossible seeing Denver getting out of the $25,617,977 he’s owed.

The key question is how the Nuggets would handle waiving him, whether they’d use the stretch provision and when. Here are the cap hits they’d face in each scenario:

Click to expand...

#633 craguin, Jul 16, 2015

malakas Member

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micah1j said: ↑

I don't think he is going to trial tomorrow. I think the DA requested a hearing with the judge because of the CA arrest and now the DA wants the ankle bracelet on Lawson, per the TMZ report I linked last night.
Click to expand...

ok I see. So it can take a lot of time until it is decided right?

#634 malakas, Jul 16, 2015
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bulkatron said: ↑

He violated his previous agreement, so I don't think it goes before a jury again right?
Click to expand...

I think its a judge making the decision.

#635 micah1j, Jul 16, 2015
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malakas said: ↑

ok I see. So it can take a lot of time until it is decided right?
Click to expand...

No. if they are going to court tomorrow and the DA has already filed a request with the court for the ankle bracelet then the judge will make the ruling when everyone is there most likely.

#636 micah1j, Jul 16, 2015
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micah1j said: ↑

That is what they were asking for before this DUI. A young player and a 1st rounder. Maybe a second rounder now.
Click to expand...

My guess is they don't consider TJones to be a "young player" with sufficient upside, and our 1st round picks are really more like 2nd round picks.....they would want mid-1st.

Now? I almost think Papa + Prig + Dorsey + TJones + cash could be enough. Even if we have to include our 2016 1st, is it really that big a deal?

#637 finsraider, Jul 16, 2015
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finsraider said: ↑

My guess is they don't consider TJones to be a "young player" with sufficient upside, and our 1st round picks are really more like 2nd round picks.....they would want mid-1st.

Now? I almost think Papa + Prig + Dorsey + TJones + cash could be enough. Even if we have to include our 2016 1st, is it really that big a deal?
Click to expand...

There is not much more to throw in, maybe Nick Johnson.

None of this is happening anytime soon though. Teams are going to want as much info on his situation as possible, punishment from the law, punishment from the NBA, does he have a drinking problem, is he going to rehab. So many questions factor in to how much to offer in a trade or even to trade for him.

#638 micah1j, Jul 16, 2015

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micah1j said: ↑

No. if they are going to court tomorrow and the DA has already filed a request with the court for the ankle bracelet then the judge will make the ruling when everyone is there most likely.
Click to expand...

micah1j said: ↑

There is not much more to throw in, maybe Nick Johnson.

None of this is happening anytime soon though. Teams are going to want as much info on his situation as possible, punishment from the law, punishment from the NBA, does he have a drinking problem, is he going to rehab. So many questions factor in to how much to offer in a trade or even to trade for him.
Click to expand...

thanx micah for the info. So we should expect a verdict in the next days.
I think it's safe to assume he has a drinking problem because people don't get multiple DUIs in 6 months by coincidence. And yeah it should take a lot of time. It will also take a long of time for Denver to decide what to do with him, waive him, trade him, keep him and raise his value if the trades is not worth it etc. They are not a hasty FO.

#639 malakas, Jul 16, 2015
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micah1j said: ↑

There is not much more to throw in, maybe Nick Johnson.

None of this is happening anytime soon though. Teams are going to want as much info on his situation as possible, punishment from the law, punishment from the NBA, does he have a drinking problem, is he going to rehab. So many questions factor in to how much to offer in a trade or even to trade for him.
Click to expand...

The more I look at this, the more I'm moving into BBH's camp.....we can't trade for Lawson. We CAN sign him if he's waived, but we can't take on his $13.2 million cap hit next summer.

To be a player for Durant (and I'm sure we are), we already have to unload both Ariza and Brewer. I don't expect that to be an issue, as both are on below market deals and have value around the league. But even if Lawson's trade value is restored, moving the $29 million in the combined salaries of Ariza, Brewer, and Lawson is very difficult.

As an aside, this is why reason why the Rockets are bent on keeping KJ, and it may also be a reason they drafted Dekker. Since Ariza and Brewer must go, the Rockets will need multiple cheap options to give them backup wing depth behind Durant. KJ and Dekker give you that.

Just for fun (and this is entirely realistic cap-wise)

Beverley / Johnson
Harden / McDaniels
Durant / Dekker
DMo / Montrezl
Howard / Capela

An almost perfectly designed team. Lots of experience with your starters, who are all well paid after DMo re-signs, and lots of cheap/young talent off your bench. You'd still have the ~$3 million room exception, and quality vets will flock to Houston at the minimum. Depending on what Dwight signs for, you might even be able to preserve some cap room and go after Llull again.

#640 finsraider, Jul 16, 2015

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