Very good example. Can also look at the A's with Zito/Mulder/Hudson/Giambi/Tejada/Chavez (even though they had multiple post-season appearances, and some bad "luck"). Those teams should have had at least "one" championship, but didn't even have a World Series appearance. In the crap-shoot of the playoffs, starting pitching is the one big potential equalizer.... just like the 98 Astros had no regrets before/after of trading for Randy, this team should have no regrets about going after a rental.
I would definitely do Appel for Cueto I'm as high on our future as anyone But baseball isn't like other sports, it is much less predictable When you have a chance like this year you go for it
i'd do it if cueto would sign here for 4 years. Sometimes I get the feeling that latin players who have spent time in small markets all want to go to the east coast.
I'd be reluctant to sign ANY pitcher, let alone somebody who's going to be past 30 and has accumulated a ton of innings, for anything more than a 3 year deal. This front office also feels the same way regarding 3+ year contracts for pitchers. Nolan is totally on board with this as well, and he pitched "forever"... nobody better to know the diminishing returns effects of pitchers on long deals than one of the greatest longevity pitchers ever. The future of this team's pitching is going to be more based on LMJ, VV, and keeping Keuchel (who doesn't rely on "stuff" as much as location, thus likely will age well) anyways... along with continuing to develop young pitching.
no thanks on moving Appel for Cueto. The trade market has some options (Cueto, Kazmir, Hamels, potentially Shields, etc.). I don't think Appel needs to get moved to get a 3 month rental...it's supply/demand. Appel in a Hamels deal--absolutely. But otherwise, I don't see a need to move a recent 1/1 pick--regardless of what he's done in the minors in a very short period. I feel like some people might be spoiled by the Rodons/et. al (lately) of the world...some guys progress through the minors over a few years and can still be good.
But the second Hamels starts to age/falter... he becomes a much bigger liability/albatross. His age/regression factor/potential future injury-risk far exceeds anybody else on the market. I'd also focus less on where Appel came from... and more on what he is right now (and whether or not you think that sort of commodity is replaceable within this system).
Appel has been mediocre. Cole was good, Strasburg was good, Price was good. The quality SP from college are usually good from the start. Can he still be good? Yes, but will he probably be good is the question.
Will be hard to ever get the top ones then Yes you usually have to overpay with an extra year or two Cause that is what they cost Another reason to go after Hamels if he indeed is ok with being here
I do focus less on where he came from for the most part. I use that to illustrate that the guy had a ton of potential just 2 years ago, and 2 years of up-and-down doesn't mean it's all gone. Some guys develop differently, and I don't think we should suddenly assume it's all gone. Risk might be a bit higher. I suppose, that being said, we could probably draft someone in the late 1st round next year that's similar in terms of "high risk, high reward SP".
Well, if you have a sound scouting/drafting philosophy (and your drafted pitchers don't fail physicals), that represents the "best" way to acquire future viable starting pitchers. History has shown us that pitchers on the wrong side of 30 cost a lot of money, get hurt, and rarely (if ever) pitch out their contract at an "elite" level. Its very much dependent on what the team's current needs are... the Astros do need to add a starting pitcher THIS year, but that may not be the case going forward depending on the development of Lance and VV. Likewise, the Nationals window of opportunity is definitely now... thus making sense to sign a guy like Scherzer. Meanwhile, you look at a team like the Tigers and wonder how long they'll be able to withstand the albatross of Verlander's deal with diminishing returns and whether or not their team will be in position to contend when considering re-signing Price. You also have to anticipate what the Astros will have to pay somebody like Keuchel... as he becomes arb eligible next year, and has the type of "game" that could allow him to pitch very effectively for a very long time.
Trade for Cueto and Frazier Package 2B Tony Kemp SP Michael Feliz SP Vince Velasquez OF Domingo Santana PTBNL Trade for Kazmir Package 1B Jon Singleton SP Asher Wojchiechowski OF LJ Hoes PTBNL Rotation Kuechel Cueto Kazmir McCullers McHugh
Exactly... There's also been just as many #1 overall "bust" pitchers as there have been success stories. Prior to Cole, Strasburgh (who hasn't lived up to the hype), and Price... you had Hochevar, Bullington, Matt Anderson and Paul Wilson Even Kris Benson, while having a long career and a crazy ex-wife, never was an all-star. Thus, if you feel you can draft/sign another college pitcher who is imminently "MLB ready" (like Appel was thought to be 2 years ago)... I don't see a huge risk in trading Appel while his value is "highest". Of course, if you feel that Appel is "getting it", and poised for greatness... you keep him. Only our front office and the minor league team-specific pitching coaches will really have the full story regarding that.
Oh boy it would be amazing if that is all it took to trade for Cueto and Frazier. I highly doubt they would trade Frazier and even if it did, it would cost more than that. As for the Kazmir deal, I have no clue how much value Singleton has
Yea the thing we don't know yet is what kind of budget Crane will have long term, which will obviously affect all of this We do know this city will support the team big time if it produces a consistent winner
i think one the promising things about this front office is their willingness to adapt to certain situations. And you would definitely have to offer that 4th year, whether it's a team option or not, just to stay in the bidding from those high spending teams for a talent like cueto. I love that they want to bring him in because it shows they'd want to keep him also, but I'm also o.k if we pass since we do have young talent. it's a win win for everyone.
Based on payroll going up annually, and based on increased revenue from ROOT that wasn't there before, there's nothing really there to suggest he won't spend when needed. At the very least, they're going to attempt to hang on to their own that they feel will continue to play at a high level after their arbitration years. But yes, the attendance does need to improve to promote increased spending... and what typically happens in Houston is that success needs to be there first. Thus, you get in a "chicken or egg" scenario of spend $$$ to lead to success on the field which leads to higher attendance, more revenue, and eventually more spending.
I think this front office also values flexibility. Signing a guy like Singleton to a guaranteed money deal doesn't break the bank and still has a high reward potential if he busts out. Signing a pitcher older than 30 to a 4-7 year deal is almost assured of having diminishing returns. There are some cases where you do it (like I said above, if the window for contention is most definitely "one ace starting pitcher" away, and you don't have viable options in the minors), but on a team with multiple needs (and possible upcoming solutions in the minors), you don't necessarily "have" to do that.
Oh yea I think he will "spend" But does that mean a $110 million payroll 130 million payroll 150 million? Don't think he will be "cheap", but none of us really know where we are headed payroll wise and probably won't for a couple of years
I think they are much more open minded than you seem to I don't think they will have one solid standard for everything My guess is they would love to take on Hamels and his contract if the cost of prospects was right....and Cole wants to be here
