aren't the more important questions 1. If he re-signs with the Rox will he play? and over whom? 2. If he signs somewhere else will he play and contribute? 3. Does he want the cash or playing time or winning?
1) I don't think he'll get a lot of playing time. I think he's strictly an insurance policy in the event of an injury or a trade. I also wouldn't be surprised if we picked him up with the intention of trading him again prior to the deadline, but then that deal fell through. 2) Probably some young team looking for guys that they can later flip, or teams looking for talent anywhere they can get it. Think Nets, Mavs, Lakers, maybe Sacramento- teams like that. 3) Probably playing time. No one will give him money if he doesn't get playing time, and winning is no fun when you're playing the role of Adam Morrison (in my opinion, anyway). That said, if we were to offer substantial more money than another team with an opening, then I don't see how he says no. But I don't see us doing that since we are probably trying to retain Smoove.
Malakas. The time hasn't come yet but I'm calling you out on this. We'll see if I'm a poorly educated on the cap rise or you're a poor judge of talent
..ok? Also it's not so much judging talent as judging the market. And why since nothing ahs happened yet you quote me? Did we spend the mle?
no. I don't see us waiting this long and then offering him the full MLE Hey. I could have waited until I was right and typed that. But I'm confident I will be right. Just a friendly jab back
K.J. McDaniels has potential but I don't feel as though he's a priority for the Rockets. If some team makes a sensible offer sheet, I could see the Rockets matching it otherwise I don't think he's really a game changer at all especially given how poor he is offensively.
***UPDATED FIGURES BASED ON $70 MILLION SALARY CAP*** Max Offer Sheet Amount: FWIW: The max offer sheet that K.J. McDaniels can be signed to is either (a) 3 years, $29.1 million or (b) 4 years, $47.7 million. If matched, it would hit the Rockets' books as follows: 2015-16: $5,464,000 (the Non-Taxpayer MLE) 2016-17: $5,709,880 (4.5% raise on MLE) 2017-18: $17,884,176 (max salary had he been signed to max deal in 2015) 2018-19: $18,617,428 (4.1% raise over Year 3 - yep, that's not a typo) Of course, it is unlikely that a team will extend such an offer sheet to McDaniels. BUT, if a team did extend it, that team would need to have at least either (a) $9.7 million (for a 3-year deal) or (b) $11.9 million in cap room (for a 4-year deal) (the average salary across the entire deal) to do so; and the cap hit on its books would be at those average figures in each year of the deal. I think my math is correct. Please try not to get confused, though. An offer sheet doesn't HAVE to be this large. This is just the absolute max. But the general principles (from a cap hit) are similar for any offer sheet that pays more than the full Non-Taxpayer MLE: Year 1: full MLE Year 2: 1.045 MLE Year 3: [amount necessary to get to total contract amount] Year 4 (if applicable): 1.041 of Year 3 salary Confusing enough for you? Yeah...
Here's my take on it: Given the Rockets actions this summer, i.e. drafting Dekker, resigning Brewer, and signing Thornton, I wouldn't be surprised if KJ's agent was doing everything he could to get him out of Houston. Unfortunately for him, the options are limited: 1) KJ signs the QO ($1.05 million) - Problem is, they would likely be right back in this situation next year. KJ won't get a ton of minutes with Brewer on the team. 2) Full non-taxpayer MLE ($5.4) - Who? Tons of teams used cap space this summer, i.e. they don't have the MLE. Other than Houston, Charlotte is the only team that has the full $5.4 million remaining. The rest have already used the majority of it. 3) Tax payer MLE ($3.4) - Only Miami and OKC still have it, and both would have to pay multiples of KJ's salary to get him. Miami is in the repeater tax, so we're talking big luxury taxes. Besides, they just draft Winslow. OKC has historically avoided taxes like the plague, but will pay some this year for Kanter. Unlikely they get involved, especially since Houston would just match the offer. 4) Room MLE ($2.8) - IMO, Houston would be fine with a team to offering KJ the room exception. It can only be 2 years in length, so Houston would still have plenty of the MLE left if they matched, and they could make KJ restricted again regardless of whether he took the one or two year contract. 5) Cap space (the infamous poison pill) - Haven't looked into this, but I don't believe there's many teams with cap space left. IMO, the risk of this happening is overblown. KJ is good, but he's not "super young" (turns 23 next season), and he's a defensive SG/SF tweener that hasn't proven he can shoot. How many teams are really going to give that kind of money to a project. So here's my interpretation of events: The Rockets have made KJ two offers, 1) A 2 year contract at $1.5-2 million per year. This pays him like a mid-1st round pick, and allows him to become a free agent a year sooner than the 1st round picks in his draft class. It's lower than the room exception because we have the leverage of matching all offers, and gives Houston full bird rights. 2) A 4 year contract at $2.5-3 million per year. Maybe a team option/non-guaranteed 4th year. This locks him up for the longest stretch of time, but also gets him a huge pay raise. Don't discount this. KJ has only earned ~$500k as a pro so far, so we're talking about a substantial amount of money for a guy who was drafted in the 2nd round just a year ago. It would cost Houston a little more up front and the rockets wouldn't be able to make him restricted at the end of the contract, but if he plays well, his contract could become a really nice asset quickly. So here's the hangup......KJ is probably searching for a room MLE offer, but nobody is giving it because they know Houston will just match. Also, even if Houston doesn't match, the new team would not be able to get bird rights from a 2 year contract. Houston has offered something below the room.....my guess is $1.5 million per, so that they have enough of the MLE left to sign a euro guard and Montrezl. Don't know how things will shape up, but I'd be shocked if KJ wasn't a Rocket next year and if he signed for more than the room exception.
