Very true. It could be luck or adjusting, but it will need to improve in the 2nd half for him to be a Top 100 guy.
He is rated 129 overall prospect on minorleagueball's website. There are 33 players above him in the majors. ISO doubling this year in a statistically relevant sample size in A and almost relevant sample size in Lancaster is likely a much bigger influence on his ranking than his BABIP dropping in a statistically small sample size in Lancaster. He's likely very close top 100 on at least one list and likely will be close on other prospect lists that rate tools highly. For small sample sizes, prospect evaluators that are stats heavy likely use regressed stats instead of raw data. If his BABIP remains near .300, his prospect status will likely drop on stats heavy lists. If his BABIP to end of season is somewhere between .340 and .360, his prospect ranking on stats heavy lists shouldn't change all things remaining equal except regression in ISO down to say 0.170-0.180.
David Paulino allowed 5 hits and struck out 8 over 6 shutout innings as Quad Cities defeated Clinton 1-0 in the first game of a twinbill.
And.... A.J. Reed just hit his 22nd homer of the year for Lancaster. That call is coming soon, surely.
It's really odd, considering how he has completely obliterated Lancaster, that he has not been promoted. What could be the holdup? You think there is an agreed upon trade in the works with the Reds and we are just waiting until after ASG to make it?
We just don't know. It's Lancaster, for one, so stats...schmatz. Also, we have no idea what the developmental guys have specifically told him to work on. There were scouting reports a year or so ago that said he had a poor hip turn, that led to him having a slower/longer swing than he should. That could be a point of emphasis right now. I dunno, we dunno. He'll be in Corpus soon enough.
Whatever issue he had last year, at least in Lancaster, seems to be fixed. With everyone else getting promotions, it is odd that the gaudiest stat guy we have on our farm continues to sit in A ball. Hope he brings it to Corpus and soon.
That's the thing though, "seems". We're not watching, or even if we were we're not equipped to judge, what he's doing on a swing-by-swing basis or even a game-by-game basis. How does he handle [pitch x]? Does he drop his hands on a good inside fastball? I dunno. We also don't know what he's like in the field, or in the dugout/clubhouse, or anything really other than a statline, which says nothing truly meaningful at that level.
What I mean is, if issues still exist, the lack of competition to exploit it at Lancaster won't allow it to manifest itself. He needs a promotion to see if stronger competition can. I don't think he is a Lancaster only star either, as he is one year removed from being the best player in college. Anyway, as you have stated, he should be in Corpus soon enough.
Here is BA's chat Guys mentioned in the chat include Reed, Bregman, Correa, Musgrove Reed: Spoiler Bregman: Spoiler Correa: Spoiler Musgrove: Spoiler So to summarize: Phillips (21), Bregman (top 30), Appel (39), Reed (top 75), and Musgrove (top 120ish?) I think Fisher would be near Reed; don't really understand the first quote. This isn't even counting guys like Feliz, Daz, Tucker, Hader, Nottingham, Velasquez, McCullers, Correa (last 3 will graduate), etc. System still looks good
Scouting is still the largest component of player evaluation, but certain stats do have some meaning at that level even though there is still a lot of noise. AJ Reed's time in A+ is limited, but probably won't move up until Astros shake things up a little in upper levels.
It's going to take moving Singleton or Carter in a trade to start the organizational dominoes falling. Really wish Singleton would get past the 4A approach at the plate and settle in to the majors.
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Lancaster played an early game today and lost in extras. AJ reed went 3-4 with a double and a walk. Should have gone 4-4, he needs more time. Nottingham went 2-4. He is hitting well so far, granted it is in lancaster.
Hopefully Appel can begin to silence his detractors.... And he can begin is case into turning into a top 2 or 3 guy in the starting rotation.
AJ Reed is on pace for a triple crown in high A. And it's not even that close on any of the metrics (AVG, HR, RBI)
