Scott Kazmir would likely help a lot and be significantly cheaper than Hamels and Cueto. Besides for tweeter, makes a ton of sense.
So what would it take to get him? Hopefully not Reed, Phillips or Kemp.. I'd be okay giving up, not all together, Velasquez/Tucker/Santana/Carter from our big league roster...
He's on A's which makes Santana doubtful. My guess would be something like Straily, Qualls, and Hoes without looking at their 40-man roster. A's understand importance of depth and club control years.
Why does everyone presume the A's are going to be sellers? They're not that far out of the 2nd wild card spot, and are currently playing the best baseball in the division (and have the 4th best run differential in the AL).
Because they know selling doesn't hurt their chances, which is about 10%, that much. Also, they would also likely be buying at deadline. I suspect they would be willing to take a chance on getting lucky with a AAA MLB ready pitcher, someone the can play left, and a bullpen pitcher.
they're not taking our garbage for someone with value. That's silly. They know Straily's value obviously...which is some, but not crazy. Hoes had a shot and couldn't make it. You need to include something to entice them into making a deal. Especially in-division. Especially when they're not super far out of the race. I'd say a Santana/Tucker-type will be the major piece of a Kazmir deal
Seven games and about 8 teams between them and 2nd wild card(rough guess without looking) is far out of the race. Kazmir is worth about 1.2-1.4 wins rest of season. He's got value, but it is only for one year. A rental. Qualls, if he gets healthy, is worth about 0.8-0.9 wins this year and next and helps the As by more than that as they are getting negative production from the pen. If not a fan of Qualls, make it Neshek. As are also getting negative production from LF. Hoes is likely less bad than what they have in left. Instead of Hoes, it could be Santana, Kemp, Fontana, etc from AAA that have club control, but are near MLB ready. Instead of Straily, it could be a number of near ready MLB arms in AA or AAA not including Appel or Feliz. Astros will not break the bank for a rental. Carter could also be thrown in instead depending on Singleton's performance. A's typically want MLB or near MLB talent. As far as As are concerned, helping Astros for this season doesn't affect them much as they aren't likely to be holding their breathe that the Stros and Angels both fall apart.
Fair enough when you put in other options. Neshek, Santana/Kemp/Fontana, and Peacock/Musgrove/Woj is a vastly different offer than what you put forth initially. Personally I wouldn't deal Neshek or Kemp in a move for Kaz. At least I'd try not to move Kemp (and no way I'd want to hurt a big part of the pen right now).. "Less bad than what they have in left" isn't good enough because they'll want some form of upside in the deal. Not just "eh, we'll get some guys who we already know are mildly better than what we have, and at least we'll control them for a couple of years". They could sign a Qualls-type and a Hoes-type for cheap in free agency..and they know that.
Come on man, Qualls and Straily?? If we want to add a solid starter, it's gonna take a decent prospect I'd put Kemp in a deal for Kazmir and wouldn't think twice
It wouldn't shock me if they moved a guy like Kazmir But they ain't gonna give him away for crap Gonna take a good prospect plus a couple more mid level ones to get it done Some of us around here value prospects too highly because a few of ours have come in and played great right away We value prospects as if they are all gonna be like Correa and McCullers, and forget how bad guys like Singleton and Santana and others are right away Most prospects that aren't top top top prospects, are not going to be great major league players
I could be underestimating the bidding market for Kazmir, but there is little chance Astros go crazy and give up anyone too good in minors for a little more than a third of a season rental. Kemp maybe okay. Personally, I think Astros are making playoffs without needing to trade. If I was Astros, I would be seeing if anyone wanted the "garbage" for a rental player. There are a ton of Matt Dominguez's out there that the Astros " garbage" is better than. That may be a little bit of hyperbole.
Strawman argument. No one is saying all Astros prospects are going to be great major leaguers. Only a third to a half of season is left after trade deadline. A prospect that has a 33% chance of having one season as good as Kazmir's this season is likely worth more than Kazmir because he'll also have 6 other seasons to give marginal help. One third a season of Kazmir is worth one full season of a backup OF. There is generally a "surcharge" for pitching at deadline so it may be more than I said, but Astros are not going to give up a prospect that has greater than 33% chance to have a season or two as a solid MLB player.
Hey I hope you are right, I hope we could get Kazmir for Qualls, Straily and Hoes I'd be completely shocked. In fact, i'm not sure Oakland would give us any of their starters for those three guys. I don't see any of those guys having much trade value at all. But like I say, I hope you are right. I mean to get a guy with a sub 3 ERA, who was very good last year too, in a trade for two guys who can't even make our roster (and aren't in the prospect talk anymore, just former prospects struggling to make a career for themselves), and a 36 year old "injured lol" reliever who has struggled greatly...yea that would definitely be good for us
We could always fall back on the Appel, McCullers, Tucker trade you suggested just over a month ago for Hamels. Astros are making the playoffs. They aren't going to give up anyone of significant value for marginal help (a.k.a a good pitcher for only 10 or so starts). Astros are likely getting a deal that is going to shock you or are not making a big deal.
McCullers isn't going anywhere. Big difference from being a prospect to being a guy who has had good success at big league level. Appel I would definitely put in a deal for Hamels And to get Hamels, you would likely have to also include another arm like VV or Feliz. Hamels wouldn't be cheap, but he also wouldn't be a rental as he has 3-4 more years on a reasonable contract When you trade prospects for players, sometimes those prospects will turn out great, sometimes they won't. It's not an exact science.
the key is what defines "significant value". I agree with the statement, but that's super subjective. My definition is different from yours which is different from Luhnow's. So..we'll see. I think moving a Tucker or a Santana isn't significant value, so pull the trigger for a Kazmir.
Big difference, but not enough to go from second piece in a trade to be laughable to be included a month later. Sometimes the old guy gets hurt or old. Hamels is on a reasonable contract. Astros could easily sell Appel to Red Sox and sign Cueto in offseason for price of Hamels's contract and what Red Sox would give for Appel. Heck, DBacks just got 10 million for Touki and are being laughed at for not getting more.
Biggest problem there is Cueto will likely cost a lot more money than what Hamels is making It's crazy to me the contracts these aces are getting, but with the Yankees and sox likely after him, Cueto will likely get something huge I disagree on McCullers. I do think showing you can have success and at times dominate in the bigs changes your status a lot. The hardest thing with prospects is not knowing if they can handle the move to the show, lance clearly can
