[Official] Astros @ Angels

I've been looking at expected standings a lot lately... as ever since the hot start and winning streak, the Astros have been "expected" to play .500 ball (which they've lived up to, more or less).

Calling up Correa didn't change that, Springer going on his hot streak hasn't changed that, and Carter slumping hasn't changed that... however, those predictions are still based largely on a player "living up to their expectations."

Meaning, at some point if Carter doesn't have another hot streak like last season... and continues to slump beyond a level he's slumped before... could this team play below .500 ball the rest of the season?

 

I really think it's becoming more evident day by day that the two guys with targets on their backs are Chris Carter and Chad Qualls. Once we're out of this run of consecutive games and we won't need to keep our entire stable of pitchers on the ready, I'd fully expect Singleton to be called up, and Qualls to be released. We need to have an alternative to Carter at 1B.

 

Once lowrie comes back, can they move lowrie to 3rd and have Valbuena at DH, Gattis at first or put Valbuena at 1st and Gattis at DH? then bring up singleton.

get rid of carter somehow.

 

I think anything is on the table at this point. Is there any timetable on Lowrie's return?

 

not sure how you platoon valbuena nad singleton

 

Lol, that sounds like something I would ask. I still stick to my theory that consistency is better than high peaks and low valleys. I have no idea how to show that off, other than pointing to Carter's WAR despite very nice slugging and OPS numbers....and my income example that I mentioned earlier, even though it has nothing to do with anything. :grin:

I really want Lowrie to get back in the lineup. I like what he brings to the table and Im just hoping he'll be healthy enough to provide that extra boost to the lineup that we are missing.

 

I keep seeing this idea posted, and re-posted, that there are no alternatives... what am I missing with Jonathan Singleton? I know he sucked last year; he was also a 22-year old rookie who is having a solid season in Fresno. What's the issue?

(I think the issue is that they want to trade him and are afraid another failed MLB stint will damage his value but, beyond that... I've been perplexed for weeks why they keep running Carter out there at the expense of Singleton's development; a player they've invested heavily in, no less.)

 

The answer to that is actually that it depends on the rest of the team. Take the very simple extreme case of two pitchers with an ERA of 4. Let's assume they pitch complete games for simplicity. In 30 starts:

A consistent pitcher who gives up 4 runs every game will go 30-0 if the team scores 5 runs every game, but will go 0-30 if the team scores 3 runs every game.

An inconsistent player who gives up 2 runs half the time and 6 runs the other half the time will go 15-15 with both the 5 run offense and the 3 run offense.

So with the better offense, the consistent player is more useful. With a crappier offense, the one with more highs and lows is more useful. In general sense, I think this is true of any one player. On a crappy team, an inconsistent player has more value because you're losing anyway when he's sucking. On a good team, the consistent player is going to be more useful by not dragging the team down.

 

Found an article from fangraphs regarding consistency and it's relation to winning games.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/does-consistent-play-help-a-team-win/

Here are some quotes:

Granted, this is research done while analyzing the team's offense as a whole...or the pitching staff as a whole. However, individual consistency still matters.

Volatility kills. :grin:

 

The Astros can start pulling away with just a little consistency. Explain how they can face aces and hit like gangbusters and score 10 + runs then face an average Joe and struggle to score 1+? I've said it before but feeding off one another at this extreme is rediculous. I think Correa is a less streaky kinda guy that can add some consistency and if only we had the old Altuve back this ship could get righted pretty quickly.

 

This I agree with. If Altuve turned things around, this club with Altuve/Springer/Correa at the top (and Lowrie platooning with Valbuena) might be able to better survive the swings of Gattis and Carter.

 

What if Altuve doesn't get it going? Is there any chance Jed plays second?

 

This is what i've been saying for a while!!!

Altuve is really the key, much more than the bashing about Carter and Gattis

If Altuve gets back to last year and how he hit the first month this year, that top 3 would be as good as any top 3 in baseball. Add in Gattis/Carter/Valbuena hitting for bad averages but sharing streaks of hitting bombs, and this offense would be even better than it is now (we easily forget we are 4th in all of baseball in runs scored RIGHT NOW)

 

Do you think there is a chance that the book is finally out on Altuve and he's not making the proper adjustments to how he's being pitched (primarily because he's a hacker by nature)?

To me, his approach hasn't changed much in his time in the bigs. The only difference is now pitchers have other legitimate threats in our lineup to worry about so they are exploiting his tendency to hack and not giving him as much to hit. In years past, he was the main (or only) threat in the lineup so they didn't have much to fear beyond him, so grooving him a fastball on the first pitch didn't matter as much as it does now.

IDK...I hope he figures out and gets back to where he was, but I'm beginning to have my doubts. All of that said, a 2B that hits .280 with speed and a little pop isn't going to doom a ballclub.

 

We are contenders this year, we have to consider what is best for this season. 3 Straight years Carter has finished the season strong and would ultimately end up with a solid OPS. Based on his history there is a strong chance he has an OPS over .800 from this point out.

Singleton only has a small sample, but he was abysmal in that sample, much worse than Carter. He may get better, but he may not. Simply running Singleton out there and hoping for the best would be a big risk when we have a guy that has a track record. Singleton isn't really performing much better this season at AAA.

If you're gonna dump Carter the offseason is the time to do it, not after yoy already tolerated the worst part of his season.

 

I suppose that is possible. I think it's more likely that he just got in a funk and needs to come out of it. His hand eye coordination is so good, he usually puts good contact on a ball. So many think of him as a punch singles hitter when he was top 5 in baseball last year in doubles.

I don't know what has happened to him since the first 5 weeks or so of the season, but I know we need him to get back to that kind of production. That is much more important than all of the Carter/Gattis stuff that everyone keeps bashing about

 

Altuve is similar to Carter in my book, except it's in the negative. Prior to his monster season last year, he had 2 seasons that looks a whole lot like this one. Solid start, then he tailed off ending up with unspectacular numbers in the second half. Nothing about his numbers suggest he has actually improved himself as a hitter since 2012.

Hope I'm wrong.

 

Except that Altuve is what, 25 years old?

And he DID hit for a very high average in the minors

Most players don't have career years at 24 years old

I have no idea what his career will end up looking like, just hard for me to buy in to the idea that at 25 years old his best baseball is behind him

Carter is what he is, a guy that at the end of the year will hit a lot of HR and drive in a good amount of runs, while hitting for a very poor average and being extremely streaky. Carter isn't the kind of player you build your offense around obviously, but he is certainly worthy of a spot on a good offense, just not as one of the top 3-5 hitters

 

I'm not really comparing the 2 players, just saying that when a track record is present, unless a player shows some major change I lean on that track record when adjusting my expectations.

Altuves BABIP

.309
.321
.316
.360
.301

Which of these 4 seems to be the biggest outlier.

 

Interesting stats. Thanks for posting.