See, I really don't think that sort of hot streak should just automatically be "expected." It was indeed amazing... but other factors change within the game that could extend/prolong slumps. Sometimes guys have bad years. He did end last year on a down note... could there be something "else" there that pitchers have picked up on based on stopping his "hot streak"? And unfortunately, at this point, the lofty expected "hot streak" is almost going to be required in some way to justify his playing time. Looking at the lineup right now, both him and Gattis are underperforming the most based on expectations (hence I would say they are the biggest liabilities). This is also, for the time, a WINNING team with a golden opportunity to make some noise. That wasn't the case last year, and cold inconsistencies with poor defense were somewhat better tolerated.
Carter has finished the last 3 seasons with an OPS of .855, .770, and .799. 3 straight years he has finished the year with a solid OPS. I don't see why it would be unexpected that he would finish this year with a similar high .700's OPS. Maintaining this poor OPS would be the unexpected result.
I would also say expecting last year's prolonged hot streak to happen again, in the exact same fashion, is also unexpected. For instance, in his last year in Oakland (the .864 OPS, which was really only less than half a season's worth of games) and his first year here, he never experienced the lows you're seeing over the last 2 years (in fact, in 2013... he was quite consistent). Players regress... maybe he's hurt....maybe he's unhappy... maybe he just doesn't care as much... who knows, but just looking at end of year numbers and presuming a player will end up there, without looking at any context of "how" they got there, is just an inexact (head in sand) way of looking at the situation.
Over the last 3 seasons he struck out 34%, this season 34%. He walked at 12%, this season 14%. His GB% is up a little from those years. His LD% is the same. His HR/FB ratio is down from 19% to 15%. That number may stay down, but I think it is likely a few balls start to fly out. His BABIP is also down a little, not much though. In 2013 he had a similar .719 OPS through 68 games, and proceeded to post an .842 OPS over the next 77 games before one last cold snap to finish the year. You may be right, maybe this is the year he finally sucks throughout. But unless a really good alternative presents itself, I would lean on past results to suggest there is likely more good than bad due the rest of the season and riding out the waves will be the best course of action, again unless there is a relly good alternative available. If we were gonna get rid of Carter the offseason was the time to do it, not after we've already dealt with what is likely (although not guaranteed) to be his worst part of the season.
Agreed. There's no acceptable alternative at this time. Thanks for posting more of those stats. One thing that is interesting is that despite him being more "patient" (and seeing more pitches than he ever has), it has him slugging at a career worse. Perhaps they need to tell him to go back to being more aggressive... I mean, it can't make him worse, can it?
I have no idea. In all my years of watching sports I have never seen a player that is more frustrating than Carter. He often looks like he doesn't even care when he takes some of these hopeless swings. I really wanted us to move on from him in the offseason, I'm as tired as everybody else of this roller coaster. But he's here now, we just have to make the best of it.
I think I would prefer this route. It's nice that he is walking, but his strengths reside in his slugging percentage. Take the Valbuena route...go big or go home.
This part just can't be the argument. There has to be more. As I wrote earlier, the team was winning when Gattis, Altuve, Lowrie, and McHugh were hot early. Gattis, Carter, and Altuve are ice cold, but Springer, Correa, and McCullers (the latter 2 of which were effectively zero before since they weren't up, and now they're up and producing at a very high level) help offset that now. Winning doesn't mean everything and everyone is working. Just like changes were necessary with Correa and McCullers to keep the winning going, more changes will be necessary going forward. And the guys who aren't meeting expectations are Gattis and Carter. Carter much moreso given his negative defense lately.
So much this. It's like he's guessing and when he realizes he guessed wrong he just gives up on the swing. He often looks totally lackadaisical in the field too, and it drives me nuts.
As he's 28 with only two more years of team control, he'll be moved soon. Luhnow is probably crossing his fingers hoping that Carter goes on a tear in the second half, then he'll be flipped in the off-season. I doubt that he's worth much on the trade block right now. Ditto Gattis, but Gattis has 3 more years of team control.
I think Carter's issue is that his confidence is tied to his focus. When he's hot, he's confident and focused. When he's cold, he loses confidence and doesnt pay attention.
One other thing I'd like to point out regarding Carter. I always say consistency is the key to high level of performance...and despite Carter ending up with good numbers, his hot and cold streaks actually create less wins for the team. I just looked up 2014 numbers. Carter ranked 11th in slugging and 14th in OPS in the AL. Very solid. Out of the top 20 guys in slugging and/or OPS, Carter possesses, by far, the lowest WAR out of the group. Carter was at a 1.9 WAR. The average WAR for the remaining 19 players? 5.34. You would think, that someone that ranked so highly in OPS and slugging would create more wins for his team, but Carter's inconsistent plate approach almost negates any positive he brings to the plate.
So, which one of you guys asked David Schoenfield this question: Is there a value on consistency? Player A has an .800 OPS for three months while Player B has a .600 OPS for two months and a 1.200 OPS for the third month. I know the stats and WAR would say they're the same player but isn't it more difficult to withstand Player B's down months (making the more consistent Player A more valuable)? Schoenfield's response Hmm, good question. Worth somebody smarter than me studying the issue. I know Bill James once did a where he compared a pitcher who had big peaks (say, Steve Carlton) mixed in with mediocre years versus a pitcher who was consistently better than average but never great. Maybe they had the same value over their career. The pitcher with the high peaks pushed his team to more pennants than the more consistent guy. Whether it works the same way within a season, I don't know.
I would add to the question: Is Carter's streakiness harder to tolerate in a year where a playoff spot is realistically on the line, vs. a year when they're out of contention? I know, in the end, it all evens out... but each individual season has its own narrative/opportunities that sometimes don't allow for simply allowing the numbers to play out without missing a real "chance".
The opposite could be true in a season also. I mean, if you take the concept that these streaks can last for long or short periods of time (seems to be true)...then it would be plausible that he could have a crazy hot entire season, as much as he could do what he's doing now. That would be incredible in a year where you come in projected for ~85 wins and get propelled. So I'd say the streakiness could be easier or harder to tolerate in a playoff type year. It depends on which streak is more prevalent Also, I think the streakiness is harder to tolerate in a playoff type year early in the season, because you know you have options. If Carter had an amazing first 2 months and then tanked the rest of the season, we'd think 1) He might come back to form and 2) trade deadline has passed--this is what we're rolling with into the playoffs
