Wow really? Rangers have been doing this for over a month now..M's have looked pretty awful. Not all too familiar with Fangraphs--how accurate are their predictions?
Well, they're not really "predictions" as much as they are odds.... and I will say, its pretty comprehensive as far as the factors they take into account (but again, its based largely on EXPECTED performance of individual players... so if a player struggles all season long, or plays above their head all season long, the projections won't be as accurate). They also have a different model that uses season to date stats.... which obviously will weigh what has happened recently moreso than the first model. On that one, the Astros are still greater than 50% to win the division, while the Rangers are 24%. They expect the Astros to be about a .500 team the rest of the way... which would mean it wouldn't take 90 games to win this division.
Usually as good as anyone else. Their before the season predictions are usually within +/- 10 games. I would assume they are probably +/- 7 games at this point...even though the first quarter of the season they were way off on the AL.
I didn't realize just how much Carter is walking this season, he's has the 9th best walk rate in all of baseball. Dating back to May 23, he is getting on base at a 44% clip. His outside the zone swing% is the lowest is has been since his last year in Oakland. After being abysmal for the first 2 weeks his numbers have been consistently coming up. It's gonna be interesting seeing how this plays out over the rest of the year.
FWIW, Carter leads the league in pitches per plate appearance. Altuve has a good hold on the bottom of the list at 3.17. Next closest is Adam Jones at 3.32.
He has more walks (13) than hits (10) since June 1. And he's damn-near even for the season (42 to 38). I honestly don't know how I feel about this; this team confronts every long-held idea I've ever had about baseball. I intellectually understand the importance of getting on base; I remain perplexed that he's still slugging sub-.400 for the year. I'm pretty sure I'd still much rather see Singleton.
He had an .089 SLG% through the first 2 weeks, since then he's slugging .467. All of his overall numbers are still skewed by that abysmal start, since then he's been a very productive hitter.
Getting closer. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jed Lowrie is on the trip. Playing catch now on the field.</p>— Julia Morales (@JuliaMoralesRS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JuliaMoralesRS/status/611280856959729664">June 17, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
But .467 - even if we jettison his two worst weeks - still ranks 14th (out of 24) among all 1B (with at least 200 PAs). His .361 OB% and .837 OPS both rank 11th. So he's basically Eric Hosmer. And, again, that's with us removing his two worst weeks. If we did that for all the eligible 1B, I'm sure he'd slide back into the bottom third of everyday 1B. I just can't wrap my head around Chris Carter; moreso because I'm being asked to perfrom the same mental gymnastics with Gattis and Valbuena. ETA: And for the record, between May 1 and May 15, which covers 13 games (same as his two-week abysmal start) he went: .146/.265/.390/.656 - it's more than *just* a bad start.
Carter>Gattis. When the power comes around for Carter his OPS should really jump, his almost 15% BB walk is a positive sign as well.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tonight's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> lineup for the first of two at the Rockies. Oberholtzer on the mound at 7:40 pm CT. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/whiff?src=hash">#whiff</a> <a href="http://t.co/xXeyemn5tL">pic.twitter.com/xXeyemn5tL</a></p>— #VoteAltuve (@astros) <a href="https://twitter.com/astros/status/611282917474463745">June 17, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
