Yeah, this ^^. Keep the roster intact if that's what it comes to, except upgrading the PG spot with Llull or, perhaps, someone from the draft Who Does not Suck. If Aldridge or Love are "gets", then, Morey, go "get". This, too. ^^ Don't run Harden's wheels off waiting for Durant to stay with OKC or go to some other team. If it's a near-given Durant wants to team up with Harden, Tony the Tiger says, "GrrrrrrrrRRRrrRReat!" We'll see on this one. Unfortunately, Morey needs to go smell Dan Fegan's farts and see what he's cooking up with Dwight. Dwight's a very good player but does he still think he is / should be a megamax modern-day Olajuwon?
I don't think Morey would have to attach picks to Ariza to move him. He is a plus on his own. There will be many teams with cap space that will gladly absorb his contract. In fact, Morey should be able to get assets back.
I don't think that's what dobro meant by moving Ariza with picks. I think he's suggesting to use Ariza and picks as the basis for a trade for Durant if he decides he wants a S&T to Houston.
In a perfect world it would be the best case scenario (cap wise) if Morey was able to draft a PG, or combo guard that could be equally as productive on the court as Llull would be so we can forgo signing him if he is going to demand guaranteed year 2 money at the MLE level. Then you operate over the cap, and resign Brewer (probably somewhere between 5 and 8 mil) on a ONE YEAR DEAL or a deal with a year 2 team option or non-guaranteed salary. Then you use the MLE to retain both Smith and KJ. Smith also being a one-year deal. Lastly you have a deal in place to allow Dwight to resign after he opts out at a rate that creates slightly more cap space in year one. The big question here is would there be a PG or combo guard out there that Morey is confident enough that can be as productive if not more productive than Llull in as early as year 1. The answer to that is probably no unless they trade up to draft Russell, Mudiay, etc. which is even less likely. So this is dream scenario, but the reality is the Rockets can still get Llull over, resign Brewer, and have cap space next Summer. The questions from that point are how many hurdles will be there to create true max cap space, and what players out of Smith, KJ, or even Brewer might have to go in the process. IMO it looks like worst case scenario that's probably KJ, and having to shed assets next Summer to create true max cap space IF Durant commits to Houston. Then again, if Durant commits to Houston than who gives a flying F&$%???
Just looking at worst case scenario. Let's assume he turns into a shell of himself and is a negative contract for the sake of this exercise. The exercise even under worst case scenario should still make folks feel good about cap space in 2016.
I give a slight edge to Payne over Tyus but it's only so very slight. Payne is a little more athletic with a longer wingspan. Better shooter and defender but Tyus is hands down the better playmaker and Tyus is two years younger and will only get bigger and gain more agility and strength over Payne. The most important thing to me is we have one of the dumbest teams in the league. From coach to every player we just aren't that bright. It's funny cause we have one of the smartest GM's. Tyus instantly becomes the smartest player on the team in a spot you need smarts.
I meant signing him flat out. Going into the summer of 2016 any max free agent will have his share of teams with true max cap space to choose from. If you want to be a player for Durant you optimally need to have true max space at your disposal for leverage. I'd say the situation would more likely look like what Cleveland did this Summer with the Jack trade before free agency to give Lebron's camp that serious option. I doubt so as well. I think more than likely if Brewer is resigned he's going to have either lower salary in year two, only have a one year contract, or some sort of team option in year two which opens up much more space. -You also have potential TJones/D-Mo/Capela/2015 rookies trades this year that can free up money -lastly you have potential for Dwight to opt out and sign for lower. For for the sake of being an NBA GM in Morey's shoes I think you have to plan accordingly looking at worst case. They have the future picks in their quiver as a silver bullet if they ever need to use them, but I doubt they have to.
I just can't help but think Morey structure Ariza's contract to be dealt with KD as the ideal target. I just feels like a Morey thing to do. Aria is on a very reasonable contract that decreases over time. That's the odd part that screams trade bait to me or at the very least "make more cap space in 2016".
Agreed. I don't think it can be overstated how important it is to have a wing defender that can effectively guard multiple positions. Ariza guarded from Curry/CP3 to Blake/Dirk/Green in the playoffs. I suspect Morey would be HIGHLY reluctant to trade Ariza even for a Love or LMA. One would assume those players would still be interested in winning a ring, and losing Ariza helps. If those guys want to come to Houston, they are "forcing" the move as much as they can. Honestly, if it came down to something like: Option A: Acquire Lawson while losing "meaningless" pieces vs. Option B: Acquire LMA or Love, but lose Ariza, and not be able to really upgrade the backcourt that much. I choose Option A. If you can get LMA or Love for those "meaningless" pieces, including TJones or DMo, and keep Ariza, then sure, you do that.
The thing that is Morey's greatest strength as a GM is creating cap space as needed. I have no worries about that issue. I actually expect Howard to opt out next summer and some team to offer him 3 years at $28M or so and Morey not to match. One thing we know is that some NBA front offices will just act stupid and sign a player to way to large of a contract. I could see Bev signing for 3 years at 3.5M/year or so. He does not work as a starting PG for most teams, but Bev and Harden work well together. Brewers limitations as a player were on full display this season. I doubt he would ever be a primary target for any NBA team. And every team is watching cap so he might be cheaper to retain than we imagine.
I think Brewer is the type of player the MLE created for in the first place. I personally just don't see an 8 mil offer next year, but someone will pursue with their MLE. As I mentioned before next years salary and Brewer aren't the issue. Year 2 is going to be where their concern is, and where they probably ultimately make their decision. Howard opting out... I think that's a given. I really don't care if he leaves or he stays. I mean, it would be my preference to keep the best center in the playoffs two years in a row, but I know that the team is going to be built around Harden these next few years, and if by letting Dwight walk it opens up more space to bring in players who maybe fit Harden better than I'm open to that possibility as well. I think Morey can do a hell of alot with 23 million a year personally. That being said, I actually think he opts out and stays long term (3 to 4 years). I think he cares alot about his perception and seems to enjoy his situation in Houston. Maybe he goes back to Orlando, but I doubt it. I think he's a Rocket with his next contract. The Bev signing is pretty interesting. Remember when Morey said "You need to be the team that finds the Chandler Parsons', not the one who pays them"... I feel the same way about Beverley. He was great for the Rockets, but his primary value was what he did at the cost of what he did it for. 3 years 10 million.... ugh its not bad salary but the point is he's not the guy moving forward as the starter. I think he's been a good placeholder for the past two years at the minimum but we can't forget who he really is at the end of the day.... unfortunately not the answer.
Very great insight on alot of posts , really is making things clearer. So the big questions is if LMA or LOve says they want to commit to Houston is it A) Better to trade ariza, dmo, and our picks to get one of them OR B) Keep our roster intact and use the MLE to either add lull or add both smith and KJ Honestly iam for option B just because i really liked what i saw from DMO last season and want to maintain both flexibility and a deep team So lets assume we did trade for one of those big PFs say (Ariza,Dmo, Capela,#18) does that put us out of the durant running all together? Because like you i would think dwight will like to resign here and i do even believe he would do it for slightly less money then any other team sans feigan... so can we form a team of Dwight Love Durant Harden Lull?? or is that impossible?
The problem with that trade, and I am assuming that you are talking about Love or LMA, is that the Rockets roster next season might not be strong enough to contend for the 'ship. There would be no backup center with D-Mo leaving (and Capela, as weak as he is) and no real above average small forward minus Ariza. Love is pretty atrocious at defense, and LMA is only average. Both fall well short of D-Mo's defensive capabilities. The defense would suffer immensely without Ariza's presence and it might struggle to even be in the top half of the league. That said, it might set up Houston as the prohibitive favorites if things work out perfectly in 2016. But IMHO a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. All in all I do not see this off season as one of immense change. The Rockets, even with all of those devastating injuries, were close. I think Morey just brings almost everyone back, uses the MLE wisely and see what develops. Roster stability does have its benefits.
I don't think Dwight signs here. I think Morey pursuing an elite PF would piss Dwight off because it's mean he'd lose touches.
