I said ace is usually top 10 -12 pitchers. 2015 ERA....19th, WAR 35th, K/9 19th. 2014 ERA 9th, WAR 16th, K/9 20th So of the stats you cited, only 1/6 would suggest ace. The one I think is most comprehensive, WAR, puts him as the 19th or 20th best pitcher. Under xFIP which typically does a better job of predicting future ERA than ERA....He's currently 60th for 2014-2015. Cole Hamels was an ace. His ERA has been going down, but so has the league as a whole. He's still a very good pitcher, just not an ace.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-well-can-we-predict-era/ Here's a nice article on the accuracy of predicting ERA relating ERA, FIP, and xFIP. For Cole Hamels, his xFIP and ERA for his career are 3.38 and 3.26 so he isn't a pitcher that has historically had an ERA much lower than his xFIP. Over last 5 years, his xFIP has gone up each year except last year. I would say he is likely to be out of the top 30 in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR in 2 years. Also, he'll be 33 in two years. Only 1 33 year-old had a WAR over 2 WAR last season. Two years ago, only one 33-year old had enough innings to qualify. Three years ago, you had 4 33 year-olds above 2 WAR. Among 31 year olds this season, he's 5th best in WAR. He was 3rd among 30-year olds last year. Getting old sucks.
That's silly. So if 12 pitchers had 0.00 ERAs and then another 10 pitchers had 0.10 ERAs, you'd say they weren't aces? I know that's extreme, but my point is that the stats and contributions should stand on their own--they don't have to be relative if the pitching is strong. Also, Hamels xFIP has always been higher than his ERA (2013 being the exception in the years I listed). Similar to some guys consistently having a higher BABIP, I think there are guys who can outperform measures.
When your scenario happens, there will be more than 12 aces. I said about ten to twelve as an approximate as it fluccuates. Hamel is not in the top tier of pitchers.
Maybe we just differ on "ace". I think "ace" means a pitcher worthy of anchoring a staff on a championship team because he's good enough to do it. I think he's that, I think his stats say as much, and I don't think he shows signs of falling off in the next 2 years (despite his age)
Right And with him and Dallas at the front, if we do indeed get to the playoffs we would have a legit chance to win it all
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Know GMs who think Kazmir goes to Houston:'Stros need him, they almost signed him before A's, he'd be home, no state income tax</p>— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) <a href="https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/610505917784825856">June 15, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
For what? He is a slightly better version of Marisnick... Doesn't walk, his power his down but he does play good defense. I dont really see a significant upgrade.
I've always thought he was the most likely target. The Phillies appear to be price gouging for Hamels. Oakland is usually much more willing to deal. Given his hometown, the state tax, and the fact that he is at an age that he likely won't command a stupidly large deal, us re-signing him seems realistic.
Yeah; I really think the Astros consider 2015 house money - they'll make a deal, sure - but it'll (likely) be minimal and cost next-to-nothing. I don't think they want to derail the rebuild right now; keep as many prospects as possible. They have a TON of arms in the farm.
If the trade deadline comes and we are in contention, I don't think they will view it as house money. With the nature of baseball, us winning a World Series this year is very realistic if we simply get to the postseason. If we can address a major hole, they won't pass that up. Having said that, there is no way we make a move unless we are confident it will help us win for the next 2 -3 years as well. There certainly won't be an all in on this year type of move ala the 98 Astros.
If we're still in contention six weeks from now, just how big a hole is it? I agree with you, generally; and I think the Astros would share a similiar urgency. But I think they'll be cautious. The only pither that fits your criteria is Hamels, right? Sure, Kazmir would probably love to stay here, etc. But if he pitches well and we make a deep run, he's going to want to get paid (unless he's signed past this year? I'm assuming he's a FA2B?) Also, I think they'd be reluctant to block too many paths moving forward. Their pitching depth is fairly significant; do they really want to tie up a spot with a fairly spotty 31-year old who was out of baseball three years ago and has been fairly mediocre, this year aside? Frankly, I'd hate for them to deal for Kazmir. Feels like the kind of move the Astros made in 2005-2008.
They have a glut of prospects... in fact they're going to need to deal some simply to avoid rule five casualties and to make room for the "younger" guys who are currently being stalled at various levels simply due to organization depth. With as many prospects they have, and with the still likelihood that very few will actually "make it", they're going to end up making more and more trades like the Gattis one... might as well fill a "need" for each year they have one (and this year, its starting pitching). I also don't think getting a commitment or re-signing the guy they trade for is a "must"... as you said, plenty of other youth coming up (or they could just take the possible free agent $$$ and go after another player in the off-season). One thing is for sure... you don't pass up a chance to improve your team during a year of contention, provided the cost isn't too steep (and in the vast majority of deadline deals, the team getting the "prized" player ultimately doesn't regret trading the prospects away... from the Astros with Randy Johnson, to the Astros trading Bourne, Oswalt, and Pence).
106 ERA+; 1.7 WAR is... OK. He was roughly Scott Feldman-esque. It's honestly not worth much beyond a low-level C-prospect, IMO. ETA: His FIP last year was actually 3.35 and he had a 1.16 WHIP - he's probably better than I give him credit for.
If the idea is a three-month rental that bolsters your '15 chances *and* jettisons some of the lesser minor league floatsam, I'm all for that.
Chances are, it won't be all that "lesser"... at least not around here, where every prospect seems to be slightly over-inflated. Hell, this regime traded Cosart when they didn't "have" to... and he had actual positive MLB results to show for himself... so I wouldn't be surprised to see any of their current prospects included in deals. (outside scenario has them looking to trade Castro again... although his value is slightly worse than the last time they tried to trade him).
The pitchers really seem to like him, particularly Keuchel. Offensively he's not good, but he's not a big liability either. He's also solid in the running game. I just don't think trading Castro will net much, versus the possible disruption trading him may cause. Very few catchers are offensive difference makers anyhow, this is more of a don't rock the boat scenario IMO.
Conger has caught a fair amount of Keuchel starts this year... basically Hinch has Conger/Castro in a straight lefty/righty platoon right now, regardless of his own starting pitcher. Don't think that will be the difference (nor should it ever be the difference)... and I don't think they are looking to trade him again... but I also don't think they're looking to lock him up long-term when he becomes a free agent after next year either. Hinch does mostly call all the balls/strikes as well... does he not? Another reason why I see he doesn't care about who catches for him based on his own starting pitcher.
