[Spanish Radio] Sergio Llull close to deciding to join the Rockets?

OK. You can obviously read Morey's mind. But a question. If it comes down to Smith or Llull who do you pick? Who actually will have a greater impact on the Rockets win totals? Is Llull actually going to get PT from Bev and Terry, the Rockets best three point shooter next season? Is Llull a great athlete, or supremely long for his position, or with eyes in the back of his head to get assists like Milos Teodosic? You cannot name a European player who had a better first season in the NBA than they had in Europe. And there have been hundreds.

 

This is like the opposite of news.

 

If the rumors are true about the contract Houston has offered Llull ( I think Cyber said 6 million) that tells me that Morey thinks he is going to improve quite a bit. You don't pay that amount of money for the stats he put up in the euro league. If the contract rumors are true Morey seems to have faith Llull will expand on those numbers.

I would still take Llull over Smith. Harden needs help in the worst way on the offensive end, we need that 2nd playmaker. I also haven't given up on Jones as a player like many have he had to deal with a lot this year. Plus if we land Scola as well that's great insurance. Dmo, Jones and Scola rotation is perfectly fine with me.
I still would prefer it if Josh stayed and I ultimately think we land Llull and Smith comes back

 

Rubio. Pau.

 

Ever heard of Ricky Rubio and Rudy Gobert?

 

Well, who am I to bust anyone's bubble? It will be what it will be.

 

Have a little faith in the GM that compiled a team that went from the lotto to the WCF in 3 years

 

And they both had pretty much horrendous rookie seasons.

 

Why did u guys like to dispute so-so topics?
Morey has instigated this guy over 6 years, do u guys all think smarter than Morey?

 

Both outperformed their Euroleague #s within their first two seasons (Rubio in his first), as did Pau.

 

You are right about Pau. Rubio probably not. But you know what, is Llull Pau? I think not. Is Llull even Rubio? You decide.

 

If Gobert's 9.6 minutes and 2.3/2.3 stat line as a rookie improved on his Euroleague stat line ...

 

Niko Mirotic

 

I'm of the opinion that Sergio Llull almost has to come over this coming season if he wants to have a real impact. He will be 28 next season and players from Europe usually need a season to acclimate to the NBA before they are truly difference makers. Of course most European players don't come over in their absolute primes.

I remember when the Mavericks signed Antoine Rigaudeau over from Europe. Many people believed that at 31 he still had a few very high caliber years left. He was a former MVP and had been a Euroleague all-star many times. He was never able to adapt to the speed of the NBA game and failed miserably.

I looked at players that have widely been considered some of the very best European players to come to the NBA. I was curious about their age and if there was any sort of trend. Since I don't watch Euroleague Basketball I was pretty much at the mercy of the internet and players that I know from their time with the NBA. So please, if anyone has better data on this then use it.

Technically Sergio Llull will be 27 at the start of the NBA season. But he turns 28 within a couple of weeks after the season starts. So I divided the players up from Those who played their 1st NBA game between the ages of 25 - 28 and those players that played their 1st NBA game from the age of 29 and on. Players like Dirk Nowitzki when started their NBA career prior to age 25 were not considered since they are still not in their primes (in my opinion).

1st NBA Game at 25 - 28 years old
Luis Scola was 27 - very good NBA player
Manu Ginobili was 25 - all-star player
Juan Carlos Navarro was 27 - failed
Sasha Danilovic was 25 - played pretty well
Dino Radja was 26 - very solid NBA player
Sarunas Marciulionis was 25 - very good NBA player
Toni Kucoc was 25 - very good NBA player
Drazen Petrovic was 25 - very good NBA player
Stojko Vranković was 27 - very spare NBA player
Nikola Pekovic was 25 - very successful NBA player
Arvydas Macijauskas was 26 - failed
Andrés Nocioni was 25 - solid roll player
Tiago Splitter was 26 - solid roll player

1st NBA Game at the age of 29 and on.
Antoine Rigaudeau was 31 - failed
Pablo Prigioni was 35 - back of the bench roll player
Arvydas Sabonis was 31 terrific player
Sarunas Jasikevicius was 29 - failed
Zeljko Rebraca was 29 - spare NBA player
Jorge Garbajosa was 29 - spare NBA player

In the vast majority of the cases, those players that came over from Europe prior to the age of 29 had some lever of success. Maybe not the 1st season but overall their NBA careers were good. Those players that waited until after they turned 29 to come over mostly had a failed NBA career.

Just based on the data that I found on the internet, if Sergio Llull has any desire to give the NBA a shot, now is the time. History is on his side to have success in the NBA if he comes over prior to the age of 29. If he waits until next season, he will be fighting history to try and be a productive NBA player.

 

Is he the guy who changes his pre-draft posts after every draft??? :grin:

 

No, that is not accurate. At least stat wise, he did not improve over his Euroleague stats in his first NBA season. That being said, he was still considered productive. In Euroleague he was knocking down 46% 3pt shots & 54% 2pt shots. In the NBA he barely knocked down 40% of his shots total. He wasn't exactly very efficient at putting the ball in the basket last season, if fact he was bad.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mirotni01.html

http://www.euroleague.net/competition/players/showplayer?pcode=000796#!careerstats

 

Number of twitter followers does not equal a reliable source. Chris Broussard has 991,000 followers. Do you think he is reliable?

 

FWIW, I would not categorize Juan Carlos Navarro as a "failure" in the NBA. In his sole NBA season, he played all 82 games for the 2007-08 Memphis Grizzlies, scoring nearly 11 ppg in 25.8 mpg. I believe that Navarro simply didn't like playing in the NBA all that much and decided to go back to Europe, where he could be a star. Had he stayed in the NBA, I'm sure he would have had a long career as a rotation guard.

Also, Jorge Garbajosa was a good NBA role player in his "rookie" season with the Toronto Raptors (2006-07), averaging 8.5 ppg, nearly 5 rpg, nearly 2 apg and 1.2 spg in 28.5 mpg (67 games, 60 starts, many playing out of position as a small-ball center) and played a key part in Toronto winning the Atlantic division that season. His second season was cut short due to a horrible leg injury (I believe), and he wound up back in Europe after that. If not for his leg injury, Garbajosa could've maybe had a "Nocioni-level" NBA career.

Frankly, if the Rockets can even get a Navarro/Garbajosa-level rookie season out of Llull, I would consider that at least within the spectrum of a decent year for him.

 

The Rockets do not need huge scoring numbers from Llull. How many points he scores is not as important as how his scores these points. They need him to attack the basket off the dribble and generate layups for himself and open shots for teammates. The guys we had this past season mostly just shot spot-up 3s and put all the playmaking burden on Harden.