Keuchel himself went in the 7th round and would have been a very low ceiling guy. It turns out that perceived ceiling was incorrect. Just as perceived floors can be incorrect. Eshelman could be the next Brandon Webb (who went in the 8th round and was never a top prospect).
gonna be that guy. can i make an insider request for this Keith Law article? http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3994
If he were a future Keuchel he would be going in the top 5? Right, except Keuchel didn't go in the top 5. All I am saying is that what the Astros use to evaluate pitchers is not the same that is traditionally used when projecting and evaluating pitchers. Therefore, the fact that another teams scout or a writer views an Astro draft pick as having limited upside means very little to me. Why? Because the Astros have proven they are capable of evaluating talent, and their unorthodox methods have worked a number of times.
Thx I'm aware of the obvious similarities, just hadn't heard of the comparison of their skills. Which is better at what. Obviously I was hoping to hear that he's better and we'll only know for sure in the coming years.
Buxton was viewed having better tools across the board: better hitter, better athlete, better fielder, better arm. Power probably comparable. Of course this isn't a knock necessarily against cameron. Just buxton was viewed as the best prospect in the 2012 and subsequently has been seen as the arguable best prospect in baseball for two years running.
The first round is already in the books, which means it's time for the second-guessing to begin. I don't kill picks, and I don't like to say picks were bad or wrong, but there are picks I liked more than others, with my big board my means for comparison. Picks I loved Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh (19th overall): Second on my board, Newman is a plus runner and true shortstop with a great swing that has made him one of the toughest hitters to strike out in Division I. He raked for two summers on Cape Cod. So what's not to like? He hasn't hit for power in school, but he also has a very wide stance without a stride, which cuts off any power. If he never hits more than five homers in a season but gets on base, plays above-average defense at short, and runs well, that's still a good big leaguer -- and if the Pirates close his stance a little bit and get him a handful of additional homers, he's a fringe star. The Pirates also got premium defender Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with great bat-to-ball skills and some questions about future power, with their sandwich-round pick. Kolby Allard, Atlanta (14th overall): Sixth on my list, Allard missed most of the spring with a stress reaction in his lower back, an injury that kept him off the mound but doesn't carry any long-term concerns. Allard has an above-average fastball and plus curveball with an easy, loose arm action, and there's still some projection left in his body, although that's more about durability than a potentially plus fastball down the road. The hammer breaking ball and repeatable delivery would have made him a top-10 pick if he'd pitched the full spring. Nick Plummer, St. Louis (23rd overall): Plummer was a scouting opportunity of sorts -- he hit very well last summer, but was hard to scout this spring because the competition was so poor and his league started hitters with a 1-1 count. That meant teams had to weigh last summer's looks to an unusual extent, and focus on his mechanics and body this spring. It's a great, short, quick swing that produces very hard contact with some power, so while it's almost certainly a left-field profile -- especially since his throwing was a little worse this spring than last year -- I think the bat will profile there. Jon Harris, Toronto (29th overall, sandwich round): A solid college starter with two above-average pitches now, strong performance and room to fill out shouldn't still be available this late in the round. Harris has a fairly high floor and the ceiling of a No. 2 if everything goes right, with a solid league-average starter a reasonable expectation. For Toronto, which forfeited its first-round pick to sign Russell Martin, landing Harris at 29 was a minor coup. Picks I questioned Taylor Ward, L.A. Angels (26th overall): I didn't have Ward on my top 100; I spoke to several scouts who said he wasn't even a second-round talent, questioning the bat (he hit only .304 with 34 strikeouts this spring) and the glove. His swing is very flat and he doesn't receive or frame well, with hard hands that betray him when working to his glove side. He has arm strength, but it's a swing overhaul with a lot of work to do on defense. Josh Naylor, Miami (12th overall): Naylor can hit and has power, with comparisons to Prince Fielder ... in body as well as in bat. He's listed at 225 pounds and may be heavier, with a body type that seems likely to get heavier; he's a first baseman who might end up a DH. It's first-round power for sure, and scouting director Stan Meek has always preferred players with size, but between the possible lack of a position and the work Naylor will have to do to stay in shape, there's a lot of risk here. DJ Stewart, Baltimore (25th overall): Stewart is a lot like Naylor, another big-bodied kid who can hit and has some power, but has major positional and weight questions. Stewart is listed at 6 feet, 230 pounds, is probably heavier, and has a thick lower half that makes it hard to picture him staying in the outfield even though he has plenty of arm for it. He also struggled with the wood bat last summer, the worst performer on the collegiate national team. Phil Bickford, San Francisco (18th overall): Bickford's probably a reliever in the long run, a one-pitch guy without great command, although the Giants do have a great track record with developing raw arms. Other teams were telling me they backed off Bickford because of concerns on his medicals, and he didn't earn any friends in his one year at Cal State Fullerton, burning all of those bridges when he left the team the day before he was due to return for his sophomore year. But at the end of the day it's about the stuff: It's one above-average pitch right now, and the Giants have a lot of work to do to turn him into a major league starter. Pick of which I just don't know what to make Brady Aiken, Cleveland (17th overall): It's either genius or it's a disaster, and I truly don't think we'll know anything at all until Aiken, who had Tommy John surgery back in March, gets back on a mound next spring. Aiken was the first pick a year ago, didn't sign with Houston after a disagreement over something in his physical when he was about to sign his contract, and if completely healthy would probably have gone first overall again (or at least deserved to do so). But with his UCL torn and prognosis less certain than most TJ cases, this is as high-risk/high-reward a pick as you can imagine.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-b...h-impressive-haul-of-prospects-042001581.html Astros win the first day of the MLB Draft with impressive haul of prospects
So you're saying that every Astros prospects turn into All-Star caliber pitchers, right? So why is it that Ludnow is paying Scott Feldman $10 mil to pitch like crap and filling the rotation with such scrubs like Hernandez. Oh, that's right, it's because for every Keuchel in the Astros system, there are tons and tons of failures that never make it. Sometimes I wonder if fans lose common sense when they switch sports. I don't remember any garm posts that states Nick Johson is certainly going to be a future max player because after all, he's a 2nd rounder and Chandler Parsons was a 2nd rounder.
Slot value is $2,393,600. Dude likely cost himself a little more than $2.5 million and a year of baseball. Had he signed with the Astros last year, he'd be richer and possibly would've have the surgery last summer. Dumbass.
Astros evaluated Mark Appel to be the best prospect in a draft that featured Kris Bryant. They are clearly infalliable and all their picks turn into gold. That is why the Astros rotation is the bestest in the MLB and therefore it's stupid to think any pitcher they take is anything less than future quality starter. I swear Daryl Morey doesn't even get Ludnow's halo and he actually has a consistent track record over years of turning crap into gold.
I still can't believe how emotional Aiken/Close were about the negotiations last year. The complete refusal to negotiate after they felt wronged by the rescinded offer was insanity. When it seemed like it was brinksmanship, it at least made sense as a negotiation tactic. But knowing what we know now, it seems they were just convinced that the Astros were sleezy and then refused to do any business at all. I can understand how the Aikens may have felt that way, but it was practically malpractice by Close if he helped fuel those feelings in any way.
Dude what the f**k are you talking about? Somebody basically says a perceived ceiling isn't necessarily a true ceiling, which is a very true statement. You somehow turn this into a diatribe about Luhnow.
Nobody assumes he'll be an all-star. Everybody's floor is that they never make it, especially with pitchers. What I don't agree with is putting a ceiling of a 4th starter on him, because that just isn't necessarily reality. His ceiling could be top of the rotation, we really don't know. Pitching is about a lot more than velocity.
