http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-enviable-draft-position/ Good article on just how good of a position the Astros are in moving forward.
What a great time to be an Astros fan. And I say it because with as much talent as the farm already has, having the chance to add the cream of the crop from the 2015 draft feels like gravy. Sure, there is talk this is the weakest crop in over a century. Blah blah blah.... Let's not forget that this is baseball where can't miss prospects flounder and wither in the minors never reaching the majors. And diamonds in the rough are found everywhere. And I know, it's a certain skill and luck that allows those diamonds in the rough to be found. Either way, the Astros stand to improve their farm system with this draft. And since the rest of baseball will be picking in a weak draft, then pretty much everyone is in the same boat. And when the Astros go for BPA, over need, good things happen!! I am stumped at whom the Astros will take. There is Swanson, Tate, Tucker, Rodgers, Bregmann, Cameron, etc... etc..., what is it about 10 names the Astros have been linked to. So, it is not so much whom I want them to take, but whom their scouts have singled out in either 2nd or 5th pick.
If Luhnow is to be believed, the Astros currently don't know they are to take. Or better said, their rating of the top draft talent is still in influx. Luhnow has said that the Astros make their mind up for the last three drafts within 24 hours of the draft.
It will be interested to see if Luhnow gets a way below slot agreement at 1.5 and tries to leverage the saved $$$ on the 1.37 pick.
I'm thinking he will try to save a decent amount on both picks, but I'm not sure too big of a name drops to 37. Would like it, though. Thinking Astros try to pick up a ton of HSers after 10th round.
I have read that the top talent in the 2015 draft would be lucky go any higher than 7th in last year's draft. The top 2015 picks do not deserve their slot monies. The 2016 draft right now appears to be the best draft in 20 years. I can see the Astros taking advantage of this in two ways. The Astros could offer picks 1.2 and 1.5 under slot offers, value on their relative worth in the 2014 draft. With the millions saved, the Astros could tell a draftee who fell out of the top ten picks to demand top ten monies, allowing them to fall to the Astros's 1.37 pick. Or the Astros could purposely screw up the 1.5 pick, so that it would be awarded in the next draft. That would give the Astros a top ten pick in what is looking to be the best draft in a generation. That top ten 2016 draft pick may be a better talent than anyone in this draft, at a substantially discounted price.
My view is that if I was drafting in the mid to late first, I would consider screwing up and drafting guys demanding top ten monies hoping that they don't sign. I would pick BPA. All it takes is one team to think this way, and Astros plan to slide someone to second round goes away. Astros still will probably try it, but I am not sure it will be successful.
I like your first strategy. Not sure about the second one though - 2016 is a year away, and look what happened to the 2015 class over the course of a year. Guys get injured/underperform/flop all the time, and people are wrong all the time about draft classes. I also think at 2 and 5 we can get guys like Swanson/Rodgers/Cameron/Tucker who would be top 10 in any year
I'm not cool with Bregman at #2. Dude only hit .318 this year in college. Give me Benintendi from Arkansas over Bregman any day. I've changed my mind and now want Swanson and either Fulmer or Tate
This is something, not sure what, but it's something: "Casey Close of Excel, despite last year's misstep with Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix, who are back in the draft, has a bumper crop of advisees (Swanson; Rodgers; Plant, Fla., OF Kyle Tucker; Cincinnati OF Ian Happ; Boston College OF/1B Chris Shaw; Vanderbilt RHP Walker Buehler; San Clemente, Calif., LHP Kolby Allard; San Diego LHP Aiken; Cal Poly Pomona RHP Cody Ponce). " http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...rong-shortstop-crop-solid-baseball-bloodlines
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/129115392/jim-callis-jonathan-mayo-provide-latest-2015-mlb-draft-buzz Benintendi at No. 2? No player had more helium leading up to the Draft than Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi. The Draft-eligible sophomore has been the best college performer, hitting-wise, in the nation this year and was named SEC Player of the Year. It seemed like he had risen comfortably into the Top 10, starting with the Red Sox at No. 7. But how about this potential scenario: The Astros take Benintendi at No. 2 on a deal that saves them a good amount of money from the pick value of just over $7.4 million. They could save some more, if they so choose, at No. 5, perhaps with high school outfielder Kyle Tucker, whose older brother Preston is on the Astros. Then, they could shift all that savings to their selection at No. 37. The object of their deisres could be Daz Cameron, Mike's son, who reportedly has put out a large price tag to interested teams. Think it's unlikely? Well, the Astros have done it before. In 2012, they made a deal at No. 1 overall, when they took Carlos Correa (How's that working out?). The money saved there allowed them to sign Lance McCullers at No. 41 and Rio Ruiz in the fourth round. Even last year, they had a deal in place to save some money at 1-1 with Brady Aiken so they could also sign Jacob Nix. That didn't come to fruition, but the Astros clearly don't have a problem with being creative with their pool money.
I think the Astros are all in on Dansby Swanson if he's there at 2. If he's already gone, I have no clue. They could play the slot game, they could go BPA, they might even try to cheat and push the 5 pick to next season. I really have no idea what to expect.
Don't forget who represents Dansby. I could see the Astros go high schooler at #2, save a lot of money and go college at #5 and have 2-3 million to play around with for high school pitchers later.
Lol "Casey Close reps this guy, better not draft him". That is so stupid and will never happen. Any GM should and would be fired if they drafted around a freak signing situation that happened in the past
The days of boras muscling teams into high contracts is over, there is a structure now and its in his best interests to practice business faithfully.
