So all older players succeed right away? The leap from AAA to the majors is big no matter when the player actually makes that leap. Its the biggest leap he'll ever have to take (some say its bigger now than it ever has been). He's already good enough at 20 to be at AAA... and if he excels there, further exposure to that level is literally going to be wasting his time. He's going to have to not only make the leap but start the adjustment process to the vast differences that are MLB pitching/lifestyle/strike zones/salary/press and media obligations/pressure/stadiums/etc.
LMJ getting promoted! <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> officially promote RHP Lance McCullers, Jr. from AA Corpus Christi to AAA Fresno.</p>— #VoteAstros (@astros) <a href="https://twitter.com/astros/status/598888159062142976">May 14, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
With Correa moving up, this is going to give more at bats to Mier. I am intrigued by his good year. And maybe he has picked up his game to the next level. He was left unprotected in the rule 5 draft.... Maybe that opened his eyes to the reality.
Glad to see his advancement. If he were in the draft this year, he might be a top 10 selection. Brett Phillips could be a late first round. The talent on board is amazing.
So how would everyone rank our pitching prospects? I think if you throw away draft position/hype and just look at stuff/control/performance, for me it's: 1) Mccullers 2) Velazquez 3) Musgrove 4) Appel 5) Feliiz (just had a good start, think he'll turn it around)
I'd be curious to know if Luhnow and his staff TRULY believe McCullers can remain a starter and be successful in the majors or if to them it's a forgone conclusion that he will become a closer.
He is the closer we haven't had in years. I would love to see him try to start, but if truly has two plus-plus pitches, then why not make him a dominant closer? Yes yes... I know there is more value in starting, but having someone in the pen that you know can lock down a game is critical as well. Especially in the playoffs.
I love his stuff, but he's now pitched in 64 games over 4 seasons, and he's gone more than 5 in only 5 games, and he's never pitched into the 7th. Unless the Astros have him pegged for a closer role, I really need to see him stretched out on a regular basis before I get too excited for him.
Odds are that he'll be a future bullpen player... hell, that's the odds for most pitching prospects that eventually stick in the big leagues regardless. But in this case, the "inconsistent/short" starts, the two+ pitches, and his family history all push him towards becoming a end-of-game reliever (doesn't necessarily have to be a closer... plenty of value in having a lock-down 7th/8th inning guy). They could always try him as a starter... as they did Lidge... or get his feet wet as a closer and then convert him later (success = Wainwright, failure = Neftali Feliz)
Mike Moustakas this year is another good example. Big time prospects sometimes fail in the majors early on, but they're also more likely than other players to figure things out later on and turn into legit major leaguers as 26 year olds.
When the Astros drafted Lance, I believed that he was destined to be a future relief pitcher. However he has made major advancements to his secondary pitches. His best pitch is a hammer, that makes his very good fastball dominant. He has really developed secondary pitches and at this point I would say it is 50/50 that he becomes a starter. He has a better shot at being a long term starter than Folty, IMO. I will be interested in seeing how his command is in AAA. As far as not having pitched often over 5 innings, I agree with you.... and it is why I have been critical of the tandem system in the past. He was flat out dominant in AA this season, but he should have been given a shot to go 6-7 innings several times by now.
His change up has developed a whole lot this season, it is probably the largest single reason he has been so dominant this season. I never thought the change up would become an MLB pitch, but he is throwing it for strikes effectively. Right now you have a guy with 1 wipe out pitch (slider), 1 plus pitch (4 seam fastball) and an above average change up. Now, just because it is getting AA hitters out, doesn't mean it will at AAA and at the big league level, but that change up is possibly his ticket to the rotation. He also has a split that he toys with, but some in the organization don't want him to throw it, believing it long term could hurt his four seamer.
Mengden isn't far behind. And I really like Akeem Bostick, though not sure if he's projected to be anything at this point.
Is McCullers a starting pitcher? He was so dominant the other night in San Antonio. His off speed stuff is so filthy.
