I live in Durango, considering driving down to ABQ where Fresno will be playing this Friday...not sure I can make it though. Do people think he will still be at AAA in August (their next trip to ABQ)? If not, and I can't make their ABQ game, I'll have to give serious consideration to a Colorado Springs or SLC trip...
Zero chance, barring some unimagineable downturn in his performance. Even if they wait out the Super 2 deadline, that'll likely fall in July.
If he's called up in June, he'll have enough AB's to "qualify" as a rookie, but will likely not have the numbers compared to rookies that have been up since opening day or after 2 weeks. For comparison's sake, Bagwell's rookie year began April 8th. Hopefully this is not another "built-in service time" excuse to keep him down till next April ("We want him to have a chance at winning that award... analytics show us that most players who win that award go on to have very good careers.")
(It's actually a fairly decent predictor of success, if you look at the past winners - Bagwell, Piazza, Pujols, Jeter, Beltran, Pedoria - just to name a few...)
So, none of those players would have been successful if they were called up mid-season the previous year, or mid-season of that year, and didn't happen to win the award because of a lack of cumulative stats? Its perfect example of how some correlations/data can be mis-interpreted to indicate causality, rather than the natural result of simply being a good player. In this case, I think these players were all great, and would have all had great careers, hence they win ROY in their first full season.... rather than the award itself helped spur their confidence, helped create a new increased work ethic, and the award itself spring-boarded them to having that career. Thus, the ROY award is not a predictor of success... its a result of being a great player! (end speech... and I'm sure I'll get the below response).
did they actually say ROY was the reason to delay Springer? And that winning ROY would mean a better career? Can't imagine anyone in the organization would be dumb enough to make that statement..
They never said that... and to reiterate again, that statement was totally made in jest by myself, and I have no fears they're going to dick around Correa like they did Springer... But there were several other choice "excuses" used for Springer's delay (since no team can legally admit they're using service time as a reason for stashing)... with the best one being they wanted him to get exposure to minor league playoff games.
... Relax, Nick; seriously, stand-up, walk around a bit - maybe grab a smoke? Or a Twix bar - you like Twix? I love Twix. I don't believe ROY has any meaning whatsoever (beyond shining some prestige on a player/franchise for roughly 15 seconds) nor do I think the Astros would even legitimately entertain the idea that winning the award somehow guanratees long-term success for Correa (or any other player). I suppose there could be SOMEONE who believes that. But I'd like to think I've at least earned enough credit that you wouldn't think I was one of them because, frankly, that would mean I'm a supremely dumb human being; at least when it comes to baseball. It *IS* interesting how often the award got it "right," in terms of selecting great players.... but beyond that, I was kidding.
I know you were kidding... and its still not that interesting to me that ROY's end up being good players. What's more interesting is that only 14 of them are in the HOF right now (with Pujols, Jeter, and hopefully Bagwell to soon change that).
Random thing that could have been interesting relative to the Astros. This conversation got me thinking about interesting ROY stuff. I've always been fascinated by the Dodgers with their 4 straight ROYs (without overt tanking that I remember, I might add) in Karros/Piazza/Mondesi/Nomo. Suddenly I realized the Astros, with so many very early picks, could have been in line for a run like that (obviously depending on call-up dates and whatnot). I mean, it's theoretically feasible that Altuve/Springer/Correa/Appel/whoever else could have made that happen. What's interesting to me now is that the Dodgers never had huge team success even with that slew of talent. So even a huge group of ROYs at the same time--and with ROYs often being "right" as you said above--still doesn't mean team success necessarily. Not that that's a revelation, but interesting to realize it already played out that way.
