The Next Moreyball Innovation That Should Happen Now

Then the problem just solve itself, no?

 

This idea reminds me of this analysis from a year ago. They took into account what happened after Deandre Jordan shot his free throws: how often the Clippers rebounded his miss, how efficient they were with the offensive rebound, and how it affected the Clipper defense. It was an interesting article.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/intentionally-fouling-deandre-jordan-is-futile/

 

Another problem with this is your best rebounders are generally the worst FT shooters. ORB% probably goes down dramatically unless the shooter is precise enough to throw it at the rim with enough speed to create more randomness in the direction it bounces (but if they were that precise, wouldn't they be able to hit the FT in the 1st place?)

 

Dorsey tries to make it and he shoots airballs, if he tried to miss? I'd bet he would throw at least two shots OVER the backboard per game.

 

And that's when they erased the dryboard and started brainstorming again.

 

That's dumb. It would make it obvious to the other teams we are pursuing a rebound, and make them just as prepared as we are to grab the boards.

 

Here's another strategy: when Dorsey is in the game and they want to foul him, make sure he elbows them in the mouth simultaneously.

Let's accept that Dorsey will get thrown out of the game once in a while, but in exchange players will be reluctant to foul like they're swiping an iphone.

 

This is the dumbest suggestion

 

Not only that, the opposing team is almost always in better rebounding position during a FT situation

 

The next Moreyball innovation?

Realize that there are a lot of teams like the Sixers and Celtics and Suns that are hoarding assets and it is no longer a real strategy for a team like the Rockets. When a player like Goran Dragic is available, you strike while the iron is hot, even if you have to overpay.... Force his hand and offer him the max and dare him to leave.

Who would you rather have right now? Goran Dragic or Donatas and the Pelicans pick?

We would in all likely hood have the #2 seed wrapped up and looking at a WCF meeting with SA or GS. Instead we are looking at a probable first round exit unless we meet Portland (we are NOT getting the second seed).

 

Yao needs to teach our bigs to do this.

https://youtu.be/ohHoK4-LeuY

 

Let's say Dwight Howard goes to the free throw line who is shooting .528 this year. The expected return is (1*.528 + 1*.528) = 1.056. If he makes the first free throw, the expected return for that possession becomes is (1 + 1*.528) = 1.528. The first free throw has no impact on making the second and making it already creates 1 point for that possession. Assuming even if the team rebound rate hold steady at .270, which is unlikely because our best rebounder is Dwight himself... the possession point expected value becomes (1 + 1.07*.27) = 1.29.

 

The sad thing is that our bigs are so bad at free throws that they would shoot a higher percentage if they tried to miss.

 

*offensive rebound rate.

 

From memory here, but there was an article that showed the % on 2nd FT attempt is usually higher than the 1st one, which makes sense (the player isn't shooting cold anymore). I think it was actually on Dwight. but the 2nd FT is more makeable than the 1st one. You can sometimes notice it in Dwight, his form on the 1st one is mostly bad, but it always improves on the 2nd one.

 

OR you could just consider the second FT its own possession. and if scoring 1 point per possession is highly efficient, and on this particular possession you have a 60-89% chance of doing that. by missing the second ft you lower your chances of scoring to the same % as your offensive rebounding rate. i'd rather just make the free throw.

 

This is one of the worst applications of (faulty) statistics I've seen on this board.

A 50% FT shooter that just makes the first free doesn't mean the chance of him hitting his second FT is < 50%. The first thing you learn in statistics is conditional probability. If you just flipped a heads, does that mean you're more likely to flip tails on the next go around? Uhh no.

So I guess if Harden is 9/10 from the field he should immediately stop shooting because he's going to miss his next 6 or so shots, so just pass it to the cold Josh Smith because he's due to make some shots, right guys?

 

To be fair, wouldn't you want to compare (i) the Rockets average points per possession excluding those free throw situations he's talking about - which is still probably about 1 since we're talking about mostly 50% free throw shooters, though might raise a little bit give Dorsey is included with (ii) the point per possession obtained from the second free throw shot by the likes of Howard, Smith, Dorsey and Capela - which, is probably 0.5 or less?

Again, to be fair, the OP stated only when the 1st free throw had already been hit. While this doesn't change the statistics, it does give you some value out of the possession (at least the one point).

That said, I think the math shown already disproves the theory.

You want:
Probability of making second free throw
Probability of collecting offensive rebound
Likely points per possession if collecting the offensive rebound

HOWEVER, I am definitely not opposed to this as a random thing to do during hack-a-player contests. Not every time, but something to think about. Statistics aren't in your favor, but if you do get that outlier 2 offensive rebounds and scores in a row, I think every someone as consistent as Pop might just change their strategy. You'd have to recognize it isn't likely to happen... but in a game like the Spurs game, heck, as a fan, I wouldn't be opposed...

And randomly, there's also a mental component. It shouldn't be this way, but I could see how one of the bigs going up there only focusing on making that first free throw might put them in a better mental state then the 2.. shouldn't be true for NBA players, but these guys also should be able to hit more than 5 out of 10 free throws and don't, so who knows.

 

Here's the issue with what the OP is suggesting. The offensive rebounding rate that would have to be considered here is not the overall offensive rebounding rate. That rate includes tips at the rim and long rebounds that come out as players are randomly positioned around the court or more specifically as the offense is spread out on the perimeter.

FTs are quite different. You have the alignment along the lane to consider. So you have to isolate the offensive rebounding rate for free throws. And that ORB% is actually going to be much lower than the overall ORB% just because the defense already has the low blocks and boxing out position.

I suppose the 3-point suggestion may POSSIBLY have some validity but not much. Because you can't stack players around the 3-point arc down low on the baselines, etc to account for higher ORB% off 3-point misses.

Great job thinking outside the box though.

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In my opinion, without a roster upgrade in sight, the best response to hacking for us is to take out our bigs and run a lineup of Harden, Ariza, Brewer, Pablo, and either Kostas or McDaniels. You burn shot clock with those 5 guys spread and let Harden make a play at the end of the shot clock. All those guys can shoot it decently well and can cut and finish with the lane cleared out. The key is to burn the shot clock down and not take early shots. Run it down all the way.

Then defensively, you press them 94 feet. You've got a bunch of smalls with ball-hawking instincts on the floor. You've got Kostas back as your safety valve. His job is to knock down the long pass and/or foul the opponent's worst shooter at the rim if the ball winds up there. But you press the opponent with multiple defenders in the backcourt, attempting to get 8-second counts or steals. Once they get across half-court you defend the best you can with automatic doubles if they get the ball to the bigs. And rather than giving up layups/dunks, you let Kostas or McDaniels use their fouls to stop the play and reset the shot clock to 14 or put the opponent on the line. Of course, if you get the turnover with man advantage you go down and finish the play. But anything that's not a layup/dunk, you back it out and set it up and burn the shot clock down. In other words, no early 3's or any other early shots other than layups/dunks at the rim.

I'd do this before I ran Dorsey out there again. And I'd at least try this if the opponent went to hacking Smith or Dwight.