It's just that I'm a Houston fan. Watching mediocrity is unfortunately something I'm all too familiar with and really don't feel excited about.
Oh it wasn't a knock on your opinion, just that 75+ wins would have been considered crazy two years ago. I don't think many are "excited" about the short term, but hot damn... the future (2016 and on) is bright. Here's to 2015 being a tease that's worth while.
I myself only predicted 78 wins, and I am still excited. Teams almost never go from garbage to contenders overnight in baseball, it just doesn't work that way. With so many moving parts, and even the best players only having limited value in the grand scheme improvement is usually incremental. Going from 50 wins to 70 wins is usually easy because you are replacing garbage players with decent players. Improvement after that is usually slower. Expecting us to go from 111 losses to the playoffs in 2 years is an unrealistic expectation If this team is withing striking distance of .500 at the end of the year that is a success.That's legitimate ascension, not treadmill mediocrity. It would make a playoff run next season a very realistic expectation. Although i don't think a cinderella run in baseball is ever out of the question unless you are dogs**t terrible, which we aren't anymore
Fangraphs has the odds of the Astros making the playoffs at 16.7% this season. Not too far off from the 10% I've been thinking and definitely well above the 0.0% last season.
You have basically pointed out why I am so men on the upcoming season. Brady Aiken's lack of ucl has further pushed the timetable back. If we are to give the normal development curve of the prospects, and that this draft is where we basically accumulated 2 years worth of prospects, then we're actually 3-4 years away from truly benefiting from the tanking. That' 2018-19ish, maybe 2017 if Ludnow starts trading prospects for vets to win. Pretty long way off. That is success in the same way a Rockets team with Scola, Hayes, Battier, KMart, and Lowry are successful with a .500 season. We jumped from the 9th seed to 8th seed in 2012, yet every Rockets fan was much more pumped about 2012 compared to previous years. Why? Because of Harden. Harden brought upside. A splattering of mediocre talent brought stability but ultimately mediocrity. That's what the Astros currently have. Ultimately the only players that will truly matter for us going forward are Springer and Altuve. Gattis, Carter, etc. are good for cost control moving forward. But they're support guys. Ultimately whether we're going to be playoff contenders will depend mostly on whether our prospects, starting with Correa and Appel, turning into studs.
I disagree on the relation of the Rockets to the Astros on that...mostly because the sports are entirely different. Teams can get to and win a World Series without "superstars." I don't think anyone thought the Royals were just loaded with superstar talent last season....and they won the pennant.
Using the exception to support your argument doesn't make it strong. I'm quite certain if you stack up the number of all-stars on playoff teams, the number is significantly above average. The Astros have one all-star talent in Altuve. They MAY have a 2nd one this year in Springer if Springer meets all the hype and stay healthy. But if we do use the Royals as an example and say you can win with historically awesome bullpen, I would say the odds that the Astros get 3 relievers with ERA in the low 1s to be basically nonexistent.
I'd say you're underestimating the potential of Kuechel/McHugh, the defensive impact of a Rasmus-Marisnick-Springer OF (best in baseball), and you're basically selling low on Carter/Gattis/Castro all being below-average players and putting up below-average numbers. Sure, nobody is expecting them to win the pennant.... but there have been bigger surprises in baseball history. The Astros wouldn't even qualify in the "worst to first" category (if they were to make a run) as they didn't finish at the bottom last year.
The Giants have won 3 WS, with Buster Posey being the only top tier position player. You don't need superstars in baseball, a well rounded team can win it all.
Am I the only person who believes that (A) pitching matters as it seems others are ignoring that part about the Astros that's still not very good and (B) there are tiers in player contribution beyond superstar and scrub? Astros is currently filled with many below average players. This is indeed a step up from their previous tanking strategy of having absolutely terrible, below-replacement value players. But having the 20th best guy in baseball at the position, while greatly better than having the 30th best, is still not good. And it's still 10 spots lower than a team having the 10th best guy at the position that "well rounded" playoff teams tend to have.
To say the Astros are filled with many below average players is simply untrue. There were about 75 guys (don't remember the exact number) who finished last season with an OPS over .775 with a minimum of 300 PA. The Astros have 5 of them. Marisnick is still an unknown offensively, but he very well may be the best defensive CF in baseball. Lowrie, Castro and Rasmus have been up and down over the last few years. They have been at times really good, and at times average to below average. The Astros aren't a finished product, none of us think that they are, but this team is much closer than you think. Pitching wise, the Astros top 3 starters were better than the Giants top 3. For whatever reason some people are convinced McHugh and Keuchel were flukes, but if they weren't (which I don't think they were) that is a great duo to start with. Feldman is a proven capable 4th or 5th starter. Again work to be done, but not far from a great rotation.
Name me the superstars on the Giants Name the superstars on the Cardinals that won their last WS This is an entirely different game. Teams compete at the highest levels in baseball without looking like an all star team. Basketball rosters are smaller, and the addition of one guy is gigantic...far less so in baseball.
I've really got to reacquaint myself to this team/franchise. Up until this season, I haven't been able to watch them on TV in 3 years. So outside of Altuve and Springer, I really don't know who most of these guys are. I blame CSN Houston. There was a time not long ago when I could name every single player on the roster. That's the way it's always been for me growing up and the way it was up until about 3 or 4 years ago. Hopefully this is the year I can get back there as a fan, now that I can watch games on TV again.
He was... in that game 3 where he hits 3 HR's. But despite that game, and the Cardinals winning the series, Freese (who would be a no-name, "below average player" in this discussion) ended up winning MVP.
Max's question was to name a superstar on the Cardinals in 2011. Pujols would be considered a superstar at that time.
I like Lowrie a good bit, and Valbuena is solid, but there's no reason I can see that Correa isn't the everyday starting SS on June 1, if not sooner. One of those 2 guys would make great trade bait.
