ESPN projections for Western conference playoff matchups as of 4/6/2015

Suspect Memphis would only be lower due to Portland being a division champ.

 

we played a lot of games with injuries so our point differential blows, and these espn predictions are all about point differential

 

On paper, you have two guys that require guarding closely to 3 point line. In practice, that leads to the least percentage of points from 3 pointers (fewer 3 point shooters), points in the paint (lots of guys sagging into paint making it difficult to get shots in paint), and free throws (fewer shots in paint leads to fewer FTs).

 

Facing Dallas scares the crud out of me. Our games against them this season have been far too close for comfort.

 

True, but 3 were without Dwight and the other was with him playing 20 minutes. That's a factor.

 

You'd think a coach like Carlisle would be able to make it work. After all, a large chunk of people here would trade McHale for him any day of the week and probably pay for the privilege. Of course McHale has seamlessly integrated a guy waived by another team that thought it better to pay him to not play than deal with him. Shrug.

 

Dallas is not a good team. Rondo is average (if that) at this point, Parsons is a lesser Hedo, Ellis is underused because of Rondo, Dirk's offense is still there but is probably the worse defender in the playoffs, and Chandler has declined.

 

he turned their original starting lineup into a pretty dynamic offense, but even he can't get blood from a stone

 

If you're scared to face Dallas, who are you not scared to face?

And please don't say "San Antonio", like they're some team the Rockets can just easily bully around any time they want to.

 

We also dominated them in the playoffs, it is just the officials who handed them the series.
We were leading the series 4-1 (on NBA apology for stuff ups) before Lillard hit the shot

 

I'll also go as far as saying that in our only loss, we were coming off the week-long All Star Break and it was our first game back. Dallas had already been warmed up the night before and we came out sloppy. We weren't the only team to come out like that (Atlanta, Portland and Washington as well)

I'm not afraid of Dallas. No matter how much we hoist up Carlisle as this genius who'll seemingly embarrass McHale.

 

Division winner being top 4 guaranteed is really hurting us! Portland would be 6th right now and since we will likely end up 2nd / 3rd we could face Portland or Dallas.

 

Let's at least win the games we should (Spurs, Pelicans, @Hornets, Jazz) and end up at 57-25 and have the Grizzlies lose at least 1 remaining game (@Warriors or @Clippers?) to end up at 56-26 at best. Otherwise let's hope we sweep our division and take the tie-breaker. After this, it will take some luck.

Tie-breaker.......Head to head is already 2-2, division record could easily end up tied at 9-7. This is where we hold our own destiny. If we can go 3-0 against the Spurs x2 and Pelicans, we will win the tiebreaker (although this may be difficult vs the Spurs twice, with one in SA), flat out, otherwise it will go to the conference record.

Current Standings:
Rockets: 53-24
Grizzlies: 52-25

Remaining Schedule:
Rockets:
@ Spurs
Spurs
Pelicans
@ Hornets
Jazz

Grizzlies:
Pelicans
@ Jazz
@ Clippers
@ Warriors
Pacers

Tiebreakers (head to head is 2-2, so it's division record):
Rockets 7-6 division record, games remaining:
@ Spurs
Spurs
Pelicans

Grizzlies 8-7 division record, games remaining:
Pelicans

Grizzlies likely to end up 9-7, and if the Rockets beat the Spurs and Pelicans at home and end up at 9-7, it will go to conference record.

Rockets 31-17 conference record, games remaining:
@ Spurs
Spurs
Pelicans
Jazz

Grizzlies 33-15 conference record, games remaining:
Pelicans
@ Jazz
@ Clippers
@ Warriors

Here's where it gets difficult. The best we can hope for here is 3-1 because if we go 4-0, that means we would have won the tiebreaker with the better division record. If we go 3-1, that puts us at 34-18. That means they have to go 0-4, which isn't likely, but possible. Here's where it would end for us, and drop us to 3, because we have no chance of winning the next tie-breaker.

The next tie-breaker is the record against western conference playoff teams, where we have no chance of catching them. If you really want the info, here it is:

Spoiler

Current Record vs Western Conference Playoff Teams:
Rockets: 11-8 with 2 games remaining
Grizzlies: 16-5 with 2 games remaining

Even if we win both of ours, and they lose both of theirs, we end up at 62% and they end up at 69.5%.

 

We matchup well with the Mavs. They no longer have the Rocket killer Jason Terry, we do, and Dirk is looking kinda old. Plus, I think Corey Brewer might be a mini Mavs slayer. That being said, it will still be a very competitive series. First we have to finish #2.

 

I'm warming up to a Mavs matchup. We have multiple guys to put on Ellis (and Parsons if need be), multiple bodies to throw at Dirk (I fully believe J Smoove can give Dirk fits, btw) and Dallas doesn't really exploit our weakness at PG now that Rondo is washed up. Dallas is the only playoff team out West besides us that does not have an All Star caliber PG. We need to be thankful for that.

I just can't see Dirk or Ellis exploding on us and having a huge series and that is really the only shot they have to win. Rockets in 6 only because Dirk and/or Ellis will have one huge game.

 

Ellis will probably do well against us unless we stick Brewer on him the whole game. But Ellis will have a good series. Dirk has regressed far too much to really be effective against our bigs. Smith could definitely handle him and I believe in Jones as well.

 

I feel like Ariza can spend some time on Ellis as well. Harden can guard Parsons all day long and let Ariza/Brewer wear Ellis down. I guess Harden can play him too but I wouldn't do that until late in the game to ensure Harden doesn't get into foul trouble.

He might still have a good series but I think it will take a monster series from Dirk or Ellis for Dallas to have a chance.

 

We get Dallas in the 1st Round and you can guarantee Jason Terry will have one F--- You game for 30+

 

Glad to have the Mav's with no shooting Rondo playing point, it scares me if they start Devin Harris who can actually shoot and penetrate. But this isn't the 2011 Mavs, this is the old Dirk, Tyson, Shoot till my arm falls off Ellis, and non shooting Rondo. If we can't beat them, then we deserve to go out in the 1st round