This is why Curry's not MVP

Uh by Curry being the favorite due to the team record yes Harden/Westbrook have been penalized for that.

 

You don't know what we are talking about. The on-off court numbers have nothing to do with defense or offense.

+/- means that when the said player is on the court, the team outscores the opponent x points, and same with off court.

When Curry is on court, his team is +16.5. When he is off court, his team is -1.4. The net is +17.9.

When Harden is on court, his team is 7.0. When he is off court, his team is -1.3. The net is +8.3.

It's a myth that when Harden sits, the Rockets lose all the lead. The fact is, when the two guys sit, their respective teams lose about the same number of points. But when Curry is playing, his team gains big lead whereas Harden's team gains a lot less when he plays.

Now, the on court number might well be due to the strength of his teammates. But the off court numbers show that the argument that Harden's team needs him more to hold the lead does not hold much water.

 

Then he needs to stop being rewarded for that recorded.

his only argument is best player on best team.

Harden has been best player.

 

This is exactly the pattern you would expect to see when one guy plays on a loaded team that gets out to big leads and sends in the nobodies later on to square off against the Lins of the world to affect the Vegas line and little else, while the other has to drag his team across the line till the end.

 

on/off is broken down into offensive and defensive ratings, it's a sum of both sides of the ball. That particular stat is very much driven by leading and trailing indicators, both players are clearly the driving force behind the offenses of their respective teams, but they're every bit non driving forces behind the defensive factors.

Who drives the defensive side for Golden State? Bogut and Draymond, maybe Klay a bit, Iggy when he's on, Curry himself makes almost no difference, yet he's a large plus when he's on the court because of who he is on the court with, ie Bogut and Draymond.

It's easy to tell the leading cause, because they're the guys with a huge differential

What about Houston? Dwight by far when he's healthy, Ariza, Beverley a bit, Josh some, it's not Harden, again a very much average defender. Harden's minutes have been staggered away from Dwight all season, as well as Ariza.

When Curry is on the floor, his team is a +13.1 on offense and -3.1 (negative is better) on defense for +16.2

When Harden is on the floor, his team is a +14.2 on offense and +3.1 on defense for +11.1

The defensive stat though isn't worth jack **** since neither of them impact it any meaningful way, they're both pretty much the definitions of average defenders right now, on teams with absolutely elite defenders.

Take Mozgov for example, he's a +12.5 on/off, -5.9 defense and +6.6 on offense, the defense is fair enough his addition has been the biggest improvement to that team's defense, but do you believe that the offensive numbers are a function of his offensive skills and not the heavy overlap of minutes he spends on the court with Lebron? Because that's what you're arguing

I know what we're talking about, you just don't understand the statistic you're using

 

I don't think Curry is the MVP merely because he is the best player on the best team. Individually, I think he has been every bit as good as Harden, when we look at it possession by possession. We can look at different stats which make one look better than the other or vice versa. But let's say in terms of per-possession individual productivity its a wash.

So after that, we can look at it in different ways:

(A) Harden has to play more minutes, and he has more focus from the defense, because his teammates aren't as good. So, Harden wins the MVP because he's producing in a much more strenuous position, making his performance more impressive.

(B) What matters in the end is how a player impacts winning, and individual stats only tells part of the story in that respect. To fill in, one must consider team success when the player is on the floor. The Warriors are +16.6 with Curry on the floor, and the Rockets are +6.2 with Harden on the floor. While its true that Curry's supporting cast has been better than Harden's, can we really say that they've been +10.4 points per 100 possession better (in my view, no).

Personally, I'm more swayed by the case in (B). Nothing against Harden, obviously, and I'd be happy like anyone else here if he wins it.

Curry is of course ahead of Harden in assists/steals, and I believe Curry leads the league in WS/48, not Harden. While you're right on Offensive RPM, their ratings on that one are pretty close and its a noisy stat.

Fair point. But going from Mavs/Blazers level to a team winning the high 60s is no easy task either. One could argue that jumping from OK to Great is more difficult than jumping from Bad to Good.

 

That still doesn't explain why Harden's team doesn't lose much when he's not on the court.

If my eye test is right, there were times when the headband brigade actually gain a lot of points with Harden on the bench. Again, it is too simplistic to say that Harden has crappy teammates and he carries the whole team to the 2nd seed in the West. The fact is, his teammates have stepped up many times to win games when Harden wasn't playing well.

I don't argue that Harden doesn't deserve the MVP. I am simply finding it amusing how Rockets fans are now acting almost exactly like the Kobe fans who only remember Kobe's amazing performances and forget the times when his teammates saved him.

 

We are obviously talking about different things. What I am talking about is net point gain. It is not broken down into offense and defense. It's broken down into on court and off court, which is exactly what this thread is about.

 

simple ... I don't see how you can be a Rockets fan and not want Harden to take home the MVP award. This is the time you are allowed to be a homer.

 

.........

 

LOL, I love how you cite stats, then go to straight to "the eye test"

The "eye test" with Harden going one on 5 and dragging it out till the end, repeatedly, week after week vs. Curry, Thompson & co riding the pine as the Warriors coast to another double digit win when Harrison freaking Barnes is hitting 40% of his 3 point shots is a pretty easy one to gauge.

It's also backed up by the non eye test.

Games where Harden had a gamescore of 10 or less, the Rockets are 3-7.

Games where Curry had a gamescore of 10 or less - the Warriors are 5-2.

 

Can't tell if serious. If so, I hope you ducked after saying that

 

The eye test is not for proof, just pointing out it's not as simple as people are saying.

You still have not explained the same off court numbers for both players. If the Warriors are sending out nobodies to play nobodies when Curry sits, the Rockets are sending out who to play who when Harden sits? Are you saying that the Rockets bench are nobodies when lots of Rockets fans are raving about how deep this team is?

I don't deny that Harden has more "closing" games. That still does not tell how their off court numbers are so similar.

So you are saying Harden has more sub-10 games than Curry?

The contention is never about which team is better. Everyone agrees the Warriors are better and thus "need" their best player less. I just don't see how that makes Harden a more valuable player in the absolute sense. The more logical question is, could Curry achieve the same success with the Rockets and could Harden achieve the same success with the Warriors? But that would be purely speculative with no objective proof either way.

If you read my earlier posts, you'd see that the argument is mostly about definition, which is pretty pointless. I don't know why Rockets fans hang so much about the MVP award.

 

Okay, that's fine. I can certainly understand homerism. I am a homer too. I just don't pretend to be rational when I am doing that.

 

I'm saying that the Rockets units without Harden have a hard time blowing games open or keeping Harden off the court in the last 5 minutes to have to win the game - this is obvious to anybody with a brain regardless of what "Rocket fans are raving about".

Well, it's been explained, at this point you obviously don't want to see.

I stopped giving you credit in this area when you made a very poor argument last year about how the Rockets had mistakenly invested in Harden due to the SG position being historically weak. .

This argument was shoddily constructed back then and is just downright embarrassing now.

 

EASY.... Just stop posting.

A couple posters took you to the woodshed and now SAMFISHER just finished you at the saw mill.

 

To the next person who says, "Curry should get the award because the award is for the best player on the best team" - ask them who on Atlanta will be the MVP Runner up then since they are the 2nd best team in the league? No one in Atlanta will get a single MVP vote and that's why the "best player on the best team" argument is bull crap - it's just their way of saying they like Curry more than Harden without sounding biased.

Whatever. I'm over it. This MVP race is turning into a popularity contest...

 

nope. Dallas 67-15. First round out. Seattle 64 wins. First round out. Certainly can happen. Maybe not first round, but the Golden State Warriors WILL NOT win a championship in the year of 2015. Nope. San Antonio or Cleveland (gasp, yes, Cleveland- watch out for Irving).

 

Golden state sucks. not even named after a city or state. Like N.E. Patriots- but Patriots earned respect. G.S. sucks. 1975 will be their last 'ship for a while.

 

I have to agree - as good as GS's record is, I still don't see it. Relatively young team, caught pretty much every break possible, lots of injuries in the league this year, rookie coach, great record in close games, etc. People say it time and time again but playoff basketball is very different from the regular season and I don't know how GS is going to respond if they get hit in the teeth against a team trying to force them out of their normal style of play. I've been wrong before but there are a lot of "never been done befores" there and I have a hard time seeing this Warrior team as the one to defy the entire history of playoff basketball. Great story, but I think San Antonio has a better chance than GS. I would LOVE to see GS lose to SA in a Pops showing em how it's done moment.