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Iran: No deal reached, only framework; Iran can still enrich

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by bigtexxx, Apr 2, 2015.

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Commodore Member

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<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6TcbU5jAavw?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

#81 Commodore, Apr 4, 2015

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Commodore said: ↑

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6TcbU5jAavw?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Long-time Capitol Hill watchers should be struck with déjà vu at this point. The United States and North Korea were in a similar situation in 1994 when the Clinton administration was negotiating the Agreed Framework despite significant congressional skepticism. The challenge for the Obama administration is not only to secure an agreement with Iran—with assistance and occasional pushback from European allies like France—but to avoid the fate of the Agreed Framework. That accord failed to prepare for a breakthrough in bilateral relations or prevent North Korea from acquiring a nuclear weapon. It has cast a long shadow over the current negotiations as well as other non-proliferation efforts.
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But...

Fortunately, there are several important differences between the examples of Iran and North Korea. The Agreed Framework hinged on the construction of light-water reactors, a project that required considerable funding that Congress could control with relative ease. The current agreement with Iran, on the other hand, does not require any congressional action, at least in the short run. (The president can waive certain key unilateral sanctions on his own under current law; lifting others will require eventual congressional approval.)
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First of all, the inspections regime that Iran has already accepted is more intrusive than anything North Korea permitted. Second, the agreement under consideration would be more comprehensive than the Agreed Framework. Third, North Korea possesses a single trump card in its dealings with its adversaries, and it has been extremely reluctant to trade away that card. Iran, on the other hand, could give up on a nuclear deterrent because it has considerable conventional firepower, more in fact than North Korea, as well as a number of ways of interacting successfully with the international community. Indeed, Iran, with its abundant energy resources, its geo-strategic location, and its well-educated population is already much better positioned to take advantage of full reintegration with the global economy.

These differences underscore another key disparity between North Korea and Iran: the latter is a far more politically heterogeneous place than the former. There was never much expectation that the Agreed Framework would embolden political reformers inside North Korea because no one had ever been able to identify such a faction inside the regime. Iran, on the other hand, has much clearer political divisions, and a nuclear agreement could very well play an important role in the country’s liberalization, thus enhancing the chances for the kind of political and economic normalization with the United States that was so lacking in the North Korean example. Such normalization could ensure that Iran sticks to the terms of the agreement, for otherwise it would have to much to lose.

Finally, North Korea and the United States had very few overlapping interests in 1994 apart from a more-or-less shared preference for diplomacy over war. Iran and the United States, on the other hand, are both focused on the threat of Sunni extremism – in the form of the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and other formations. Both countries also want to see a stable Afghanistan. And then there are the commercial interests that drive U.S. and Iranian business interests. Iran is a far more attractive trading partner and location for U.S. investment than North Korea ever was.

These practical considerations – around sanctions, reform inside Iran, and intersecting geopolitical and economic interests – suggest that the current nuclear negotiations have a much better chance of successful implementation than the Agreed Framework did in 1994. But this assumes, from the standpoint of Congress, that Republican hardliners are susceptible to arguments based on pragmatism. Their recent actions, from the Netanyahu visit to the letter of the 47 senators, suggest otherwise. The challenge for the Obama administration is to create sufficient momentum for rapprochement with Iran that even a Congress inclined to say no will eventually have no choice but to say yes.
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http://www.lobelog.com/iran-north-korea-and-the-congress-that-says-no/

#82 NewRoxFan, Apr 4, 2015
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It comes down to the fact that you cannot trust either regime, so a contract with them is worth almost nothing; on the contrary, you make concessions which they will only regard as weaknesses and will exploit, before crapping on whatever obligations they entered into.

#83 AroundTheWorld, Apr 4, 2015
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AroundTheWorld said: ↑

It comes down to the fact that you cannot trust either regime, so a contract with them is worth almost nothing; on the contrary, you make concessions which they will only regard as weaknesses and will exploit, before crapping on whatever obligations they entered into.
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I fear you're correct. Obama is too naive and too focused on trying to do something, ANYTHING, to have a positive legacy.

#84 bigtexxx, Apr 4, 2015
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As has been pointed out before; it's best to just laugh off those who would reject this historic deal. They are nobodies who would criticize anything that was proposed anyway, so it's best to just ignore them.

#85 mc mark, Apr 4, 2015
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mc mark said: ↑

As has been pointed out before; it's best to just laugh off those who would reject this historic deal. They are nobodies who would criticize anything that was proposed anyway, so it's best to just ignore them.
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so just laugh off congress, right?

lol -- "because Obama"

#86 bigtexxx, Apr 4, 2015
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bigtexxx said: ↑

so just laugh off congress, right?

lol -- "because Obama"
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well, the American people have.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html

One Economist poll has Congressional Approval at 12%. LOL.

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/day-old-congress-hated-ever

On the Senate side, Joni Ernst (R.-Iowa), newly elected to the most despised Congress in American history, said that the low approval number was no cause for concern.

“If you ask somebody to pick a number between one and ten, eight is a pretty high number,” she said. “So it’s all good.”

After Senator Ernst made her comment, Congress’s approval rating plummeted to four per cent.
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#87 Northside Storm, Apr 4, 2015

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So you guys trust the government of Iran? Seriously?

#88 AroundTheWorld, Apr 4, 2015
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bigtexxx said: ↑

so just laugh off congress, right?
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This congress?

LOL

Here texxie, here's something more your speed you can whine about.

The 137th White House Easter Egg Roll

#89 mc mark, Apr 4, 2015
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bigtexxx said: ↑

so just laugh off congress, right?

lol -- "because Obama"
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Yes, it is definitely best to laugh off the biased partisans in Congress who, in the middle of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, stated that their top priority was making Obama a one-term president. The entire economy was on the brink of absolute disaster but they didn't care "because Obama."

When a group is so desperately partisan as these clowns (that includes you, bigpuffery), it is best to simply laugh at their desperation. They will say or do ANYTHING to try and disparage Obama, it has been their entire raison d'etre since November of 2008, this is no different.

#90 GladiatoRowdy, Apr 4, 2015
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AroundTheWorld said: ↑

So you guys trust the government of Iran? Seriously?
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Not completely, which is the entire reason there are verification requirements, which if violated will result in the sanctions being reinstated.

#91 GladiatoRowdy, Apr 4, 2015
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GladiatoRowdy said: ↑

Yes, it is definitely best to laugh off the biased partisans in Congress who, in the middle of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, stated that their top priority was making Obama a one-term president. The entire economy was on the brink of absolute disaster but they didn't care "because Obama."

When a group is so desperately partisan as these clowns (that includes you, bigpuffery), it is best to simply laugh at their desperation. They will say or do ANYTHING to try and disparage Obama, it has been their entire raison d'etre since November of 2008, this is no different.
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The American people spoke in November. And Republicans won in a landslide.

#92 bigtexxx, Apr 4, 2015
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bigtexxx said: ↑

The American people spoke in November. And Republicans won in a landslide.
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*33.9% of eligible voters, the lowest in American history.

The American people spoke in 2008 and 2012 and will speak in 2016 for the important ones

But you're derailing: the deal doesn't imply trusting Iran. In fact as Gladiato pointed out mechanisms are put in place that imply and mitigate a lack of trust. The whole point of negotiation is to build trust. What alternative are you proposing?

#93 Northside Storm, Apr 4, 2015

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AroundTheWorld said: ↑

So you guys trust the government of Iran? Seriously?
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Seriously?

Did you miss the part about the inspectors?

Trust doesn't matter. Either they do it, we come in and check and they get their sanctions lifted, or they don't.

#94 larsv8, Apr 4, 2015
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larsv8 said: ↑

Seriously?

Did you miss the part about the inspectors?

Trust doesn't matter. Either they do it, we come in and check and they get their sanctions lifted, or they don't.
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Has that worked well so far in North Korea?

#95 AroundTheWorld, Apr 4, 2015

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Northside Storm said: ↑

What alternative are you proposing?
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Working with congress. The smart choice.

#96 bigtexxx, Apr 4, 2015
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bigtexxx said: ↑

Working with congress. The smart choice.
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Many members of Congress want to bomb Iran. Do you agree with that?

If not, what exact provisions of the deal do you want strengthened?

Given how many Senate Republicans showed their ignorance of basic constitutional principles and were lectured by Iran's foreign minister on this very topic--why do you trust Congress on foreign policy?

#97 Northside Storm, Apr 4, 2015
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bigtexxx said: ↑

Working with congress. The smart choice.
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Americans (and the administration) have all come to realization there is no "working with (this) congress".

#98 mc mark, Apr 4, 2015

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Speaking of Americans and what they want...

Washington Post-ABC News poll: Clear majority supports nuclear deal with Iran

Support 59%
Appose 31%

#99 mc mark, Apr 4, 2015
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AroundTheWorld said: ↑

Has that worked well so far in North Korea?
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Great, they don't have a nuke.

#100 larsv8, Apr 4, 2015

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