2015 Spring Training

I am surprised so many people have a problem with Hernandez. Having a guy who will almost certainly put up a league average ERA in 120-150 innings at the 5 spot is not bad at all.

Wojo no doubt has a better upside, but he has an injury history and most recent Astros starting pitching prospects have been known to put up a 5+ ERA in their first action (Mchugh excluded).

 

That isn't bad, but Hernandez hasn't done that since 2010. His career ERA+ is 89. Over the last 4 seasons it is 79, with a 4.75FIP.

There is a reason he had to sign a minor league deal. People seem to remember his couple of good seasons in Cleveland, but beyond that he has been mediocre to terrible.

 

Yea he is terrible. Hopefully we are truly thinking about winning this year and will not run him out there when the season starts. If we do run him out there, my boy Jared Cosart should bet the over on those games :grin:

 

150 innings of mediocre has value. We're not trying/going to win 100 games. As long as he's not a bottom 20% pitcher, which I don't think ERA+ of 80 is, he'd be fine. A FIP of 4.75 is still within one standard deviation of the mean.

Wojo I really doubt would get to 150ip and could easily envision him putting up a 5+ ERA in his first go around. I like him and probably still prefer him to Fauxsto but this isn't nearly as one-sided as the conversation's been.

 

I understand that all of the new fancy stats like ERA+ and FIP and so forth, have a legitimate place in baseball and figuring out who has a chance to be good and who has less of a chance

But with a guy like Hernandez, he has been been around since 06 and a majority of his years he's had an ERA north of 5. He gives up a ton of baserunners every year. Even in 2010 when he had his "good year" going 13-14 with a 3.77 era, he gave up 275 baserunners in 210 innings. He isn't good. If we were not truly trying to compete (and maybe we aren't) then it wouldn't bother me so much. But if we really are trying to compete this year, Wojo won the job over a guy that has never really been good.

We don't know what Wojo will do, but he does have the potential to be good. If the best we could possibly get from Herandez is mediocre, why keep him around? Especially when we've seen nothing this spring to make us think we are gonna get the best we possibly could from him?

 

I like Woj, but if he doesn't work out, then Astros have Straily, Peacock, Deduno, Buchanan, Smith, and White to try before Appel is ready. Hernández is replacement level. I don't mind him for a start or a few starts, but Astros should be able to get replacement level performance.

 

Why pay 2.65 million for replacement level though? That money could be used in much better ways than giving Hernandez a few starts over Wojo or the others

 

I have near zero belief that Peacock, Deduno, Buch, Smith and White could pitch a better 150 ML innings than Fauxsto in 2015. That holds true to a much lesser extent with Wojo and Strailly. Without looking it up, I'm fairly certain none of them has pitched 150 IP in a season, much less at the major league level.

The guy who's capable of throwing 150 major league innings that aren't disastrous has value. If nothing more that spares the bullpen and simplifies the 40-man shuffle.

 

I'm not a Hernández fan. Assume Astros want to trade him. 2.65 million is not bad for replacement level, but not good either.

 

None of those guys has to throw 150 innings. One doesn't work out, send in the next. My guess is that at least two of those guys produce more than Hernández.

 

In a vacuum, yes. In reality probably not. Anything the club needed from last season they went out and got. There's not a glaring hole anywhere on the roster where'd the money would have been better spent.

 

I seriously doubt that. Not one of those pitchers produced more than Hernandez in 2014, much less two.

All it takes is one injury to Keuchel, McHugh or Feldman and you'd be begging for a guy who could throw 150 IP of sub-5.00 ERA.

Does seriously no one remember the game of musical chairs with guys who got 6-8 starts with a > 5.00 ERA? Paul Clemens? Aneury Rodriguez? Edgar Gonzalez? Armando Galarraga?

I didn't start out thinking RH was that important but I'm actually convincing myself that he could be an extremely important part of the club if something goes wrong.

 

Edited

 

I'm hoping for a playoff run, if Keuch or McHugh get hurt and we are counting on Hernandez to hold down the fort, then what i'm hoping for ain't happening anyway. No idea if Wojo could help out in a playoff run or not, but I know that Hernandez can't

 

edited

 

A spot on apples to apples comparison would be if Bryant was injured for the season, would the Cubs rather take a 2-win Valbuena over the higher upside/unproven options in Arismendy Alcantera, Javier Baez, and Mike Olt.

Again I'm by no means a RH fan, but I see the logic in having a known quantity option available.

 

I do agree that Hernandez is a much more known quantity

No idea how we would do with Wojo making starts

But it's pretty safe to say, looking at history, that would could very likely win at least 25-30% of Hernandez starts

 

I remember those days, and that is exactly what Hernandez is. A garbage pitcher. Peacock nearly threw 150IP of sub-5ERA ball last season, and he sucked. Hernandez lucked out early last season. He isn't going to repeat an ERA in the low 4s.

 

Over the last 4 seasons Hernandez has a 4.84 ERA and a 4.75 FIP

Brad Peacock has a career 4.68 ERA and a 4.92 FIP.

Dan Straily has a career 4.54 ERA and a 4.71 FIP

Samuel Deduno has a career 4.20 ERA and a 4.55 FIP

Hernandez fluked his way to a low 4 ERA last season, so even that mediocre ERA was overachieving. I see no reason to keep Hernandez.