Analytics on ref Ken Mauer: no surprise he didn't call a foul

I am sure there's analytics on how a ref performs AFTER being publicized of a game changing terrible call.

I can imagine in the future, teams will have a control room, advising the coaches and players on what play to call based on analytics about every player, every coach, and every ref in the game.

Control Room: You have 45% chance of getting to the basket driving left with a pick and 56% chance of getting fouled if you do and 88% of getting the call. You have 51% chance of getting to the basket driving right and 65% chance of running into someone and 76% chance of a charging call.

Coach: Okay, DMo set a pick and James go left.

Control Room: The refs switched their positions. Now you have 43% chance of a charging call if you go right.

Harden: Copy that. I'll go right. DMo, no pick. Just slide to the weak side.

 

I understand that and as a ball handler you make moves to bluff the defender and whichever you feel is the right direction to go, you take that direction. That step back doesn't work every time and Courtney Lee stopped him earlier in the game from doing it. He might've felt that wasn't the right go-to move.

 

Sometime earlier, I have said that Harden's getting tons of foul is nice. But relying on the refs is relying on something you cannot control. Many posters at that time kept saying that Harden's fouls were all legit. But the point was not whether the fouls were legit. It's that it's relying on someones you cannot control.

 

LOL this made me laugh:grin:

 

Driving is by far the highest efficiency for Harden, if he can easily get by the primary defender. It also forces D to react for a pass.

This is not how ISOs work. Harden is making split-second decisions based upon what the defense is doing. Plus, last-second step-backs won't be as efficient if he never drives.

It is far more significant (wrt percentages) for Harden to decide based upon the defense. That's where the key analytics lie. That's the difference maker. That is: if defender is playing tight, drive. if defender goes for the jab step, then step back. and there's more variables and options than that, when you factor in help defense.

And, it isn't one ref who misses a call like that. two had to miss it (and you can't know who will have the best view). and the analytics in the OP are about individual tendencies, not crew tendencies.

bottomline: this type of analytic is over-thinking it in last second situations. Harden can improve his own odds better through his defense-reaction decisions than a pre-planned decision, which simply isn't good ISO methods.

 

Understanding tendencies? He had no problem calling fouls for Memphis.

 

This is all true, *except in the closing moments of games*, when refs tend to swallow the whistles.

That's the whole point. Leaving it in the hands of the refs to blow a whistle, instead of working to create an open shot, is what gets the Rox in this kind of mess in the first place, and what kills us in the playoffs.

Yes, Harden is extremely successful driving, creating contact, and getting a lot of foul calls. Except in a tie game with less than ten seconds to go. He's going to have more success working for an open shot than with a drive-and-pray-for-a-foul. The defense knows this as well, so they send someone to stick really tight on Harden, goading him into a drive, and they know they are going to hack the crap out of him and have a far smaller chance of it being called. I would have preferred him to take a step-back three in that situation, instead of just drive in and have a turnover because the refs won't call a foul at that point.

 

Well one would have to know if Harden truly was going for contact or he was just trying a bucket around a Gasol who really wouldn't want to foul Harden.

 

All of the analytics and tendencies aside, Harden was hammered on that play, and should have gotten the call. It's inexcusable for a professional referee to miss such a blatant, wide-open call like that in the most important juncture of a game.

 

You're somewhat going off-topic here. The historical tendency of refs not calling fouls on last-second shots is well known for decades. This thread is about new data regarding individual ref tendencies with the notion to use that info in game situations.

but regardless...if Harden never drives on last-second shots, and only does jumpers, that makes the defense's job much easier. You're playing right into what they want you to do. That was a big critique of Lebron for years.

Also, step-backs rarely create open shooters like drives do.

You are assuming drives are only shots or fouls. Harden passes a lot on drives. In that play, Randolph left a corner 3 wide open and Gasol left Jones under the basket. Harden is supposed to pass in that situation. And *that* is a great result from a drive...drawing the defense for a pass. And that is what Phil Jackson reinforced with MJ ... "Where is Kerr? Look for Kerr, if they stop your drive."