If Ariza puts in a good playoff performance, he may be retained or he may be moved as well. If he does poorly, I think Morey will try his best to trade him as soon as possible.
For once I would like for the organization to keep the roster for more than just one season. I say keep them all IF possible.
I wondered about the Bi-annual exception because we used it but only for a one-year versus two year deal so didn't know whether that meant you could use it again. What happens if Smith comes back at the MLE? Can you still sign KJ to his qualifying offer? Morey might not be making the deadline splashes we all want but this front office seems to be adept at bending the cap rules to make pieces fit they want to retain.
I think the thread should also mention K-Pap. I have no idea what our plans for him are next year. But if I had to guess while being uninformed on the cap, I'd guess a few things: 1) No way we're not retaining McDaniels - unless someone offers up a good trade for him. You don't give up assets for a young, high-potential guy, bench him all year, and then just let him walk. That makes no sense. 2) We will try to keep Brewer and Smith, but they might leave. Not sure how much money we'll be able to throw at them, but I think everyone in the Rockets org knows they are valuable. If either of them leaves it will be because he's not happy with the money. 2.5) If we're only keeping one of them, I'd bet it's Brewer - simply because we have DMo and TJones at PF. Those two and Dwight healthy would leave far fewer minutes for Smith, whereas Brewer could be a backup wing next year still getting big minutes. 3) We'll be dangling K-Pap as a trade piece until at least the next All-Star Break. I think he was only ever brought over to be an eventual trade piece. 4) For reasons I don't really understand, I am anxiously awaiting the arrival of our next bench wing - Alessandro Gentile. Don't know where he'd fit in or when he'd play, but I like what I've read about him.
If the Rockets keep Brewer, I don't see McDaniels, who is not part of the current rotation, wanting to re-sign with the Rockets. Ariza is making $8.6 miilion per. I can not see the Rockets offering Brewer his Birds-rights max $8.225m (175% current salary $4.702m). I also do not seeing another team ponying up that type of money. If these three player were smart (and they never are), they would sign one year deals and roll the dice when the following year when there is a big jump in the salary cap.
Here is my order of preference if we can keep one and only one of the 3. 1. Brewer 2. KJ 3. Smith We are win now mode and Brewer seems to be the perfect fit off the bench and the perfect player considering our run n gun style. Dude is all energy, hustle and can actually play. I like KJ potential but he is more of a long term project. Very inexperienced to be logging big minutes for a win now team. I love what Smith has done and would love to retain him but fact remains once Dwight comes back, some of the big men minutes will be eaten into and that includes Smith. TJ somewhat provides what SMith does with less playmaking but less turnovers
I don't think Brewer would be smart to turn down a multiyear deal. He's approaching 30. Take the guaranteed long-term payday now. Don't risk injury or the market drying up in 2016 after all the big name guys get paid. What he's worth remains to be seen. I don't necessarily view him as a 8 mil/yr player(not that it'll prevent another dumb team from offering that), but he'll definitely get 5-6 mil from someone.
Is there an official statement that Brewer will or will not exercise his player option next year? IIRC at the time of the trade Brewer waiving his option was the reason that there was trade interest in him.
When the Rockets went bust last free agency Morey said they had to build up their cache of assets again. McDaniels looks too far away for a win now team that has another long term project on board in Capela. I get the feeling he'll involved in some kind of trade, the earliest being free agency. It certainly would surprise if they use their MLE or at least a chunk of it on either Llull or Gentile.
My understanding of the Josh Smith situation is Detroit pays the salary owed to him next year. He only makes additional money if his new contract pays him more than what Detroit is paying him. If that is the case, it seems like he would resign for the vet minimum.
I think it's a little more complicated than that. It's kind of prorated as Bima or someone else broke down a while back. So a team has to pay him significantly more than we would for it to really make a big difference to his bottom line. (not to mention the taxes if it is in a state with state income taxes) I thought it was for the BAE? Or is that the same thing? lol
If we stay above the cap, then Smith is most likely gone. We will use the MLE to re-sign KJ McDaniels and bring Sergio Llull over. The only way we go below the cap is if we trade Ariza.
For every dollar he gets above the vet minimum, it reduces what Detroit owes him by 50 cents. His market value right now is probably in the $7-8 million range. I could see him giving Houston a bit of a discount and signing a two year contract for the MLE. The problem is I don't see how that serve's Houston's best interests. It would leave us with zero flexibility to add quality free agents (including McDaniels, Llull and Gentile). Most likely Houston will choose to stay above the cap and offer him 125% of his current salary (around $2.5 million) and he will go somewhere else. Unfortunate, but there's not much the Rockets can do short of trading Ariza (which I am not against).
I think we keep Smith with the MLE, Brewer we use the Bird rights to re-sign him, KJ McDaniels we will make the RFA offer of 1.2 million and match any offer he gets (probably won't get an offer) and I also think they will pick up Kostas Papanikolaou's team option of 4.8 million as it is the only way to re-sign him unless at the minimum contract. Now having said all that, the NOP will probably be traded before/at the draft along with players for a PG.
We have "Early Bird" rights for Brewer if he opts out this summer which means we could exceed the salary cap to pay him up to 170% of his current salary. Basically we could offer him a salary staring at approximately 8~ million dollars. We have "Non-Bird" rights for both Josh Smith and K.J. McDaniels which means we can exceed the cap to sign both up to 120% of their current salaries. We can offer Smith a salary starting at about 2.5~ million and we can offer McDaniels a salary starting at about 608~ grand. I don't think any team will offer Brewer more than 8 million a season so I think we are safe with him. As long as the Rockets value him high enough then I think they will keep him. I think we would need to use the MLE to sign both McDaniels and Smith. I don't think Smith resigns for 2.5 million and I think K.J. will get an offer better than 600 grand.
Depending on the offer to K.J. though, we can probably still match based on the "Gilbert Arenas" provision? I'm not sure how it works exactly, but some team could give us a taste of our own medicine ala 'poison-pill' contract.... though I doubt anybody offers him more than the MLE
My money is on them keeping all 3. Brewer and Smith are reborn playing on a winning team and you can see it in their enthusiasm. Brewer waived his player option as a condition for the trade. Morey got him to do that before he approved the trade. My guess is Morey asked him to waive the player option so that we could have the cap space and then go over the salary cap to resign him. They probably had a wink nod deal. Smith and Brewer are not going to want to go to a losing team so cross out all non contenders. Smith makes less from Detroit the more he makes from another team so his incentive to chase money is mitigated. KJ is restricted and Morey already said he will be back so there is that
