For the record - you can believe all of this is true and still believe that D-Mo should be more agressive with his shots INSIDE rather than always passing back outside.
not "exact the same", since we are talking about math ... even if you are talking about 33.33333% at 3 vs. 50% at 2 The 2 pointers will have slight edge in netting points than the 3 pointers. Take 3 shots. You also need to look at how the scoring is distributed. Your logic is over simplified from a total points of view. Shots are taken one at a time. In basketball, makes and not makes do make a difference to the confidence of a player, which further affects their shooting. Player is not a robot.
Coaches come into play here, encouraging their players to keep taking the open shots. Also James Harden is a great leader and consistently still passes to them and doesn't get mad that they miss. I was impressed to hear on the broadcast last night that the coaches make Josh Smith MAKE 250 threes in every practice. no wonder he's been shooting the 3ball so well as of late.
The problem is that, at times, we pass up lay-ups for three pointers. Recently, we have been passing up lay-up for threes when we shoot sub 30% from three. You should make 70% of your lay-ups, especially if relatively open. That doesn't not equate to sub 30% from three.
From a regular season POV, you may be right. However, 3 point centered attacks have never worked out in the postseason. The Rockets are currently attempting 33.6 3-pt FG per game and are shooting 34.8% on those shots, higher than your magical 33% number. So that must mean good things right? <PRE> Team Team Rk Season Tm G W L W/L% FG% 2P% 3P% FT% FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS 1 2004-05 PHO* 82 62 20 .756 .477 .512 .393 .748 40.9 85.6 9.7 24.7 19.0 25.4 11.8 32.3 44.1 23.5 7.0 5.5 13.7 110.4 2 2005-06 PHO* 82 54 28 .659 .479 .511 .399 .806 41.8 87.4 10.2 25.6 14.5 18.0 9.5 32.3 41.8 26.6 6.7 5.0 13.3 108.4 3 2006-07 HOU* 82 52 30 .634 .445 .475 .372 .753 35.4 79.6 8.6 23.1 17.5 23.2 10.7 32.6 43.3 20.8 7.1 4.1 14.2 97.0 4 2006-07 PHO* 82 61 21 .744 .494 .532 .399 .808 41.3 83.6 9.6 24.0 18.0 22.3 9.0 31.5 40.5 25.9 6.7 4.8 14.5 110.2 5 2007-08 ORL* 82 52 30 .634 .474 .516 .386 .721 37.3 78.6 9.8 25.3 20.1 27.9 9.4 32.6 42.0 20.8 6.3 4.1 14.3 104.5 6 2008-09 ORL* 82 59 23 .720 .457 .495 .381 .715 35.7 78.2 10.0 26.2 19.6 27.5 10.0 33.3 43.3 19.4 7.0 5.4 13.9 101.0 7 2009-10 ORL* 82 59 23 .720 .470 .521 .375 .724 36.6 78.0 10.3 27.3 19.2 26.5 9.9 33.4 43.2 19.7 6.2 5.6 14.1 102.8 8 2010-11 ORL* 82 52 30 .634 .461 .507 .366 .692 36.0 78.2 9.4 25.6 17.7 25.6 10.5 32.7 43.2 20.0 6.7 4.7 14.9 99.2 9 2012-13 NYK* 82 54 28 .659 .448 .487 .376 .759 36.5 81.6 10.9 28.9 16.0 21.1 10.9 29.7 40.6 19.3 8.2 3.6 12.0 100.0 10 2013-14 GSW* 82 51 31 .622 .462 .496 .380 .753 39.5 85.4 9.4 24.8 15.9 21.1 10.9 34.4 45.3 23.3 7.8 5.0 15.2 104.3 11 2013-14 HOU* 82 54 28 .659 .472 .529 .358 .712 38.0 80.5 9.5 26.6 22.1 31.1 11.2 34.1 45.3 21.4 7.6 5.6 16.1 107.7 12 2013-14 LAC* 82 57 25 .695 .474 .525 .352 .730 39.1 82.5 8.5 24.0 21.2 29.1 10.5 32.5 43.0 24.6 8.6 4.8 13.9 107.9 13 2013-14 POR* 82 54 28 .659 .450 .481 .372 .815 39.1 87.0 9.4 25.3 19.1 23.5 12.5 34.0 46.4 23.2 5.5 4.7 13.7 106.7 14 2014-15 ATL 55 43 12 .782 .468 .507 .385 .774 37.9 80.9 9.9 25.6 17.4 22.5 8.5 32.6 41.1 25.6 8.8 4.6 14.2 103.0 15 2014-15 CLE 56 34 22 .607 .457 .504 .355 .753 37.6 82.2 9.1 25.7 18.3 24.3 11.4 31.4 42.7 21.9 7.3 4.1 13.9 102.6 16 2014-15 DAL 57 37 20 .649 .463 .511 .358 .759 39.9 86.2 9.6 27.0 16.6 21.9 10.8 31.6 42.4 23.0 8.3 4.8 12.5 106.1 17 2014-15 GSW 52 43 9 .827 .481 .523 .387 .771 41.8 86.9 10.5 27.2 16.5 21.3 10.3 34.7 45.0 27.3 9.4 6.1 14.8 110.6 18 2014-15 HOU 55 37 18 .673 .439 .499 .348 .716 36.8 83.8 11.7 33.6 17.8 24.8 12.1 31.5 43.6 21.7 9.7 4.7 17.1 103.0 19 2014-15 LAC 56 37 19 .661 .473 .520 .372 .730 39.4 83.2 9.7 26.2 18.8 25.7 9.5 32.3 41.9 24.7 7.9 4.8 11.9 107.3 20 2014-15 POR 54 36 18 .667 .443 .483 .359 .797 38.1 86.0 10.0 27.7 15.9 20.0 10.9 34.9 45.8 22.1 7.0 5.0 13.8 102.1 Rk Season Tm G W L W/L% FG% 2P% 3P% FT% FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS 21 2014-15 SAS 55 34 21 .618 .456 .491 .363 .768 38.0 83.3 8.4 23.1 16.5 21.5 10.0 33.7 43.7 24.5 7.6 5.3 14.3 100.9 22 2014-15 TOR 55 37 18 .673 .454 .499 .351 .783 38.2 84.1 8.9 25.4 19.8 25.3 11.1 30.9 42.0 21.0 7.8 4.6 13.1 105.1 </PRE> Those are all the teams in the history of the NBA that have 23 3PA/game, shoot 34.8% on 3PA and have a W/L over 60%. All champions have won over 60% of their games so if they're not on this list, it's because they didn't shoot a large number of 3's. There are a few teams that won a ring but not 60% of their regular season games, like the Rockets in 94-95, but because the teams in this list are only from the last 10 or so years, it doesn't matter. Now here's some analysis. Who has the worst shooting percentage of all 22 teams? The Houston Rockets from the 2014-2015 campaign. How many NBA Champions are on this list? Zero, but all current contenders (GSW, ATL, CLE) are on this list, so there will be 1 team in a few months. How many conference champions? There's 1: Orlando in '09. My point is that in history, no team has ever a championship, shooting 34% on 33 3PA/game. Obviously the trend is changing, all the teams on the list are from the last 10 years and this season has like 7 or 8 teams on the list. But out of every team that does it, we have the worst percentages and that speaks to the flaws of our offensive strategy. I'm not arguing the analytics in play here. 33% may be equal to 50%, but teams that focus solely on 3's and can't even shoot at them at an average rate tend to run stagnant offenses that are inconsistent and unreliable. Those are two words that describe the Rockets against worthy opponents all season long: inconsistent and unreliable.
It is a problem, but that's a problem with coaching and our players. There's no arguing the math of the 3 pter, it's how it's implemented, which is the issue.
Yes we are inconsistent and unreliable outside of Harden. For sure. My point is that if we were trying to shoot more midrange twos we would be even worse. Shooting threes is what is keeping us in it.
Appreciate the info and work. Again, the math of the 3pt is clear, however it is the implementation of the strategy. Our overall offensive strategy gives a TS% that is good for 10th in the league and we are much better against +0.500 teams this year. More so than over, except maybe in the JVG era, our offensive looks very inconsitent.
Yeah you could be right, but I feel like a motion offense, based on cutting, slashing, screens, and just overall movement is a lot better than Harden drives and kick out. You can't just throw offensive strategy out of the door because of math. Analytics are supposed to be a tool, not an answer.
Then i shall provide you with a basketball lesson to supplement the OPs math lesson. Your TS% include shots like transition baskets and drives into the paints, which do indeed have higher likelihood of going n than a 33% 3pt shooter. However, the TS% of JUMPSHOTS is most certainly not that. That is the true comparison, since the Rockets arent shooting contested 3s while theres an open layup available.
THANK YOU. Someone please give HP all the reps in this thread. I'm tired of these mawrans oversimplifying things. The midrange is the most versatile shot in the game...it occupies like 80% of the shooting space. Teams really only shoot within 6 inches of the 3pt line as the percentages drastically drop from there on (can be proves scientifically too).
At last noted genius LPH has decided to join this thread. You know something is wrong when he says it. Tell me more about Trevor Ariza and Pat Beverly taking contested midrange shots. That's the ticket! Even if they were open they couldn't hit fifty Percent on a consistent basis. It's sad that longtime posters are this dumb.
LPH's entire post ignores the fact that most of the threes we take are wide open. How is the shooting space relevant? LPH has some major Byron Scott in him, the poor guy.
I guessing the OP is referring to mid range shots, 2 pts from the paint are the best shots since it results in more fts but since Ariza drives to the paint whenever possible anyway there is no reason why he wouldn't just shoot 3s all game long and then drive if theres opportunity to do so. Btw your second point just shows 3s are more effective than 2s, teams can reach 33% with regular players but only a few can bit 55% from the 2. Given that we dont have HOF offensive players apart from Harden why should the Rox be attempting 2 pt shots?
