Nets could make huge moves at deadline

So, rumors have been flying for awhile now about the Nets, possibly wanting to move out 1 or 2 of their big contracts to "rebuild". Originally we heard that they were considering "packaging" Lopez and DWill for as much assets and draft picks as possible. But that went down the drain quickly when they tried to deal DWill and discovered that all they could get back were slightly shorter term deals and no real assets.

Here's the truth. Prokhorov wants to take advantage of the big sale of the Clips by piggybacking on that sale his own sale of the Nets. It's all about money. And for that reason the Nets want out of the luxury tax and they want cap space to rebuild through free agency next season.

How does that translate to the players? Very simply. If Prokhorov can move out both Brook Lopez and Deron Williams, he can get under the luxury tax this season, and he can get far enough under the salary cap next season for the new owner to have something to work with in free agency.

Why is this important? Because the Nets have no draft picks to rebuild young with. And there is no way they can move out all 3 of Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and Deron Williams.....because they don't have any draft picks and precious little young talent to tack onto those players to get them out the door. Brooklyn sold it's soul to the devil when it gave up all those draft picks to the Celts for Garnett and Pierce and before that for to Atlanta for Joe Johnson.

A new owner wants somewhat of a clean slate....flexibility to change the team. Well, Brooklyn gave up all it's quality future picks. So the only clean slate that Brooklyn can possibly give a new owner is to get far enough below the salary cap that there is the ability for the owner to add a max player or possibly even players. And that's the only choice Brooklyn has to make itself attractive to a new buyer.

For Brooklyn to get below the luxury tax this season and far enough below the salary cap next season to go after another max player they've got to dump both Lopez and Deron Williams for basically nothing but expirings. They've got to try to clear out both guys. Or possibly dump Joe Johnson (the most valuable of the 3 players) and Deron Williams (the least valuable of the 3 players).

All this talk about trading Lopez for a first rounder or a really good player (Thad Young)...is just talk. Brooklyn wants a pick or picks so they can throw in that pick with Deron Williams and get him out the door. So they can sell the team. It's that simple.

Will a single first round draft pick get DWill out the door? Probably not. Somebody has to take on that contract and either keep DWill or buy him out. Brooklyn already tried to move DWill earlier this year to Sacramento. Couldn't get it done because Sacramento wanted them to take back mediocre talent like Jason Thompson and Carl Landry on long-term deals. And Brooklyn needs expiring contracts or no salary at all. Because Brooklyn has to shed almost $14 million just to get out of the luxury tax.

So, the question remains how can Brooklyn trade both Lopez (or JJ) and DWill, a total of $35,473,527 (or more in JJ's case) in outgoing salary, and get back nothing but some expiring contracts and players on rookie deals or minimum salary deals that total around $21.7 million or less. It's not critical that they get all the way out of the luxury tax. But it would help since they would then get a few million extra dollars for participating in the profitability of the NBA and receiving the luxury tax dollars that the Knicks are going to pay. And it is pretty critical that they are able to clear out Williams' long-term salary so they can open up cap space for 2015 free agency and grant a new owner his choice of how to rebuild the team. Not to mention save over $85 million in luxury taxes and salaries wiped off the books. This is a third to a fourth of what Prokhorov paid for the Nets in the first place. So it directly affects his bottom line plus it probably raises the price of the franchise since the new owner would have some options to work with if the team is under the cap by around $20-24 million.

Enter the Philadelphia 76ers and their huge cap space of around $19.4 million. Now, obviously that cap space isn't enough to take on both Lopez and Williams. But it is enough for Williams. Only now the price has to be right for them to take on Williams and buy him out. So what would that price be. It would cost Philly roughly $7 million above what they are required to spend this season and it would cost them $20 million in dead salary in 2015-16, which shouldn't be a problem for them if they get enough value in picks/young talent for doing this.

And then there's Deron's final year at $22.3 million. Would Deron consider a buyout of that entire last season? To get out of Brooklyn? A place he's tired of and wants to leave?

Well, let's consider the possibility. First of all, if he agrees to a buyout of $22.3 million, how much of that can he make back up over the following 2 seasons? What if he goes to a playoff contender? Can he make himself look good enough to go after a 2-year MLE deal that pays him roughly $11-12 million? If so, that means he's down $11-12 million for his buyout. What about taxes and living expenses? What if he moves to Miami or to .... Houston, someplace where there's no state income tax and the cost of living is lower than New York? How much difference now?

Can you see the possibility of Deron accepting a buyout of his entire last season salary to escape basketball purgatory and get to a winning climate where he has a chance to play in the playoffs? I can. I can for sure see him giving up $10-15 million of that last season. And I don't think it's a stretch to see him giving up the whole $22 million.

If that were the case then Philly would have paid out roughly $7 million more in salary for DWill this season then they would have been required to pay out anyways plus they'll be on the hook for his $21 million next season. They probably wouldn't want to stretch this. That puts Philly at roughly $36-$40 million on next season's cap depending on what they did with their non-guaranteed players and draft picks.

So...how much draft pick value would Phily have to have to be willing to do that? Well, last season they gave up $5 million of cap space (but money they had to spend anyways in the Granger/Turner/Allen trade) for Golden State's second rounder...a pick probably somewhere between 55-60. What would it take to get Philly to take on DWill and buy him out? I don't know but it'd be interesting to find out what Hinkie would ask for that?

And then how does Brooklyn get the picks to trade to Philly to get them to take DWill and buy him out? Well....they could possibly get a low first round pick for Lopez....or perhaps a couple low first rounders and some expirings for JJ. And then they've got Mason Plumlee. He's worth a mid-first round pick.

So...that's how Brooklyn can possibly clear the deck. Trade Lopez (or JJ) and Plumlee for expiring contracts and picks and send those picks to Philly to swallow down DWill's money.

So come to your own conclusions here. Is there a team that will trade for DWill and send Brooklyn back just expiring contracts with very little to no long-term money? (IMO, nope.)

Or how much draft pick value does Philly have to have to take on DWill and buy him out? And how much draft pick value can Brooklyn extract from either Lopez (whom they prefer to trade) or Joe Johnson and Mason Plumlee?

 

Plumlee wasn't traded because it wasn't the right deal, not because they won't trade him.

Brooklyn goal is to cut as much salary as possible to maximize their sale value. It's not about keeping Plumlee. It's about clearing their cap.

In the previous talks with Sacramento they were going to have to take back long term money plus give up one of their only valuable trade assets. That deal along with whatever they could get for lopez would have kept them in the luxury tax this year and capped out next year with worse overall talent.

That's why they didn't do the deal and give up Plumlee. Because the trade did not accomplish their objectives. They were not going to be able to slough off one or two of those contacts from Sacramento on to us or phoenix or some other team that either had cap space or a large trade exception to work with.

If you understand what Brooklyn wants you'll understand my reasoning.

As far as Dwill goes.........you're right. If he's washed up and he knows it.........he won't accept a buyout. But if he isn't washed up and he wants to ball he most likely will accept a buyout. Because there is no doubt now that he wants out of Brooklyn. He doesn't like Hollins and he wants out.

 

Nets and Kings could not find a taker for any of those contacts. Nobody wanted Collision, Derrick Williams, nor Jason Thompson. That deal would have left the Nets $10 million over the luxury tax line and then they're up a creek trying to find 2 other teams, one team to take Lopez and a second team to take in the crap the first team wants to trade lopez for. Not only that but that Sacramento trade leaves the Nets at a minimum of $74 million in next year's salary. So no Plumlee, plus Atlanta pick added to the roster means no flexibility to make the team better.

That's why they weren't willing to do the deal. They may have done the deal without Plumlee because they could have then used Plumlee later on to help them clear out Thompson and Collision.

If the Nets are going to get out of the luxury tax and clear cap for next season they've got to go through Philly.