I don't think we have the pitching to compete this year. SP Keuchel SP McHugh SP Feldman SP Oberholtzer SP Straily/Wojo/White/Peacock That is not very inspiring. Lunhow, Ryan, Crane said all along that they weren't going to pay big bucks for a starting pitcher on the open market. So they must be counting on Appel to come up and be a legit MLB #3 starter. Risky gamble. But it also indicates they know that 2016, not 2015, is the year they will make a push for October.
Dave Schoenfield has been bullish on us before. I wouldn't mind Vogelsong, just would have depended on the contract.
Seems Singleton and Carter are on the hot seat. Singleton to do anything to show he belongs. Carter to prove one half of baseball was no fluke (because when he was offered for trade nobody wanted him before he went on his 2nd half surge).
To be honest, I don't think you can make any long term plans with this current rotation. Aside from Feldman, this entire rotation has a very wide cone of possiblity. Keuchel and McHugh were spectacular last season, and the peripherals supported their numbers, but it was still just one year. Entering last year these 2 were fringe major leaguers. I could see a very real scenario in which we end this season needing to remake the entire rotation, but I could also see a scenario in which we end the year with a spectacular 1-2-3 punch of Keuchel/McHugh/Appel. Until we're a little more sure just how dire our rotation needs our, it's probably best to wait before making an investment. We've improved the squad, but we aren't in all in to win mode yet. I'm perfectly OK giving a good look at our in house guys this season.
We were middle of the pack as a rotation last year, but that was with a little bit of Lucas Harrell and a lot of Brad Peacock.
Compete? Luhnow is just trying to break 500, ie 81+ wins. If two or three of the bats exceed expectations, the Astros might get into wildcard contention. Might.
The Astros rotation was about the 12th to 14th best last season. The Astros starting pitchers for the most part pitched lower in the zone in 2014 than before. Keuchel and McHugh should both exceed their projections (Zips, Steamer have them regressing by about 33%) even if they do regress (I'm thinking it will be closer to 20% regression with McHugh pitching more innings) as long as they don't have injury problems. Oberholtzer is a wild card. He's been a flyball pitcher that hasn't given up many homers in the majors. Homers were his problem in the minors. I haven't seen any of his minor league starts, but I suspect he's throwing a lot more down in the zone in the majors than he did in the minors if he follows what other pitchers for Astros are doing. If he continues not giving up homers as the rates he did in the minors, he's a decent starting pitcher. If he starts to give up homers, he will be a fringe 5th starter. Feldman probably isn't very good. The scylla of age looks to be catching him. He might have one more year as a BoR starter in him. I do think the Astros expect Appel up sometime this year and I expect him to be better than Oberholtzer. In conclusion, I'm not thinking the rotation is great, but it should be around average a little bit worse than last year.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> have yet to be told they're out of the running with RHP Ryan Vogelsong, who appeared close to a deal Tuesday.</p>— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) <a href="https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/558290779933003777">January 22, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> officials monitoring the situation after a <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> report that Vogelsong has re-engaged with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SFGiants?src=hash">#SFGiants</a>.</p>— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) <a href="https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/558290844311371776">January 22, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Of all the offseason moves, pumped about Rasmus the most. I think he's the perfect FA to sign. Coming off a bad year. Had some great years. Gets a "prove it" deal where if he does well, the Astros will be able to get prospects at the deadline, or draft picks by offering him arbitration at the end of the season.
I dont necessarily have an issue with what Vogelsong brings to the table as a pitcher...but he prevents us from having a solid look at our other in-house pitchers that actually have a future on this team. If he was head and shoulders better than what we have, then sure...but we'd essentially be taking a step sideways with this move, and paying for it. Basically, I dont understand the logic behind signing him.
My problem is: 1) I've seen enough of Peacock as a starter. 2) Alex White struggled in AAA coming back from TJ surgery, and needs to go back to AAA. 3) Wojciechowski didn't look great in AAA I see Vogelsong as a real improvement over those 3. Right now I think Straily is clearly the #5 guy headed into ST unless we sign Vogelsong. Not that I have a problem with that. Even if we signed Vogelsong, he'd still have to earn his spot in ST.
That's valid...I guess I just want Straily to succeed for the time being until Appel comes up. Ive been down on Appel for a while, but now Im getting this weird urge for him to hurry up and get to the majors and start dominating. Im just being antsy because I want baseball to hurry up and get here. Having said that, it does give some stability to our #5 spot with Vogelsong.
I wouldn't mind Vogelsong as long as the contract is team-friendly, and we're not relying on him to be a linchpin in the rotation. I'm pretty tepid on him, but I do see the need for someone LIKE him to help eat up starts while we see where we are with Appel.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhiteSox?src=hash">#WhiteSox</a> agree to terms on minor-league contracts w/ following free agents: Jairo Asencio, Scott Carroll, Jesse Crain, Logan Kensing, (1/3)</p>— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) <a href="https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/558367480465592322">January 22, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> An FYI for those of us hoping Crain might be back on a minor league deal.
Marisnick/Moran/1st round comp... pretty good price. But I will for sure be watching to see what Cosart does this year. He outplayed his peripherals pretty well to this point in his career.
He's just another flawed, high variance player. Granted his floor is higher than most people guessed, but as an Astro he would have infuriated people when he didn't reach his peak ceiling. There's a reason why guys like Folty and Cosart got traded; Luhnow and Co. thought they were more sizzle than steak. I like the approach of going with prospects with pitch-ability. They have elite guys like Appel and then BOR guys like Tropeano (now traded), Brady Rodgers, Kent Emanuel. I pulled for Nick Tropeano more last year than Folty or Cosart. Maybe I just like the underdogs overperforming.
