Trade seems to be fair value. Astros are going to have to figure out a way of defending "mythical" runs with three DHs. I'm hoping Astros have another trade in the works that will allow Gattis to be either the DH or the 1B.
I think he has a chance to be the 1B without any trades... IMO, Singleton is going to have to have a very good spring and "win" the job. And a Gattis/Carter LF at MMP is doable (no worse than Carlos Lee)... with Grossman/Pressley getting more exposure on the road (those could be games they actually use Gattis to catch, which I don't see many other opportunities). The flexibility between C/DH/1B/LF will definitely make for some interesting lineups... Hinch should be prepared for plenty of 1 'M'-like shuffling. (also, who's the 3rd everyday DH you're implying?)
I simply don't like the idea of a player like Marisnick, who has a truly elite skill (maybe the best in all of baseball) being used merely as a backup outfielder. It isn't as if he is a disaster in the box. Over the final 45 games he posted a very respectable .732 OPS, and he hit well throughout the minors. IMO he needs to be given a chance as an everyday player, barring a disaster in the box his defense is simply too valuable.
Though giving up young pitching to do so (which I don't love), this trade is about winning sooner rather than later. The player they acquired has proven he can effectively hit big league pitching. I'm good with that.
If he truly is the best defender ever to wear an Astro uniform, they will find a spot for him... but even an OF full of Marisnicks, no matter how much the metrics say he "saves" runs, will not win a lot of games. Meanwhile, Fowler wasn't losing games in the OF last year... and this team was horrid offensively (and simply in winning games) when he was out of the lineup.
LF Rdrs/yr (Defensive Runs Saved per 1200 innings): Gattis = -35 Carter = -19 Lee = -3 (Though he had a season of -20) The team needs to make other moves to have this roster make sense. I'd put Carter at 1B if Singleton doesn't earn the job in ST, and DH Gattis. The reason I don't like the deal is a combination of Gattis doesn't fit, he doesn't walk, and he is a defensive liability at any position.
I'm better with giving up young unproven MLB pitching (Jason Hirsh, remember him?) as opposed to young pitching that has already shown the ability to stick at the MLB level. Also, are there any Wade/Heck drafted players left on our top 10 prospects?
I've already said that LF at MMP is the reason why it works better. If Lee played LF at Atlanta, that number would be far worse. If you don't like the deal, don't be cheering when Gattis launches 500 foot bombs on to Crawford street that hits the new apt complexes, breaks windows, people start calling it the "Bear condos", etc. etc. etc.
Just because Fowler was more good offensively than he was bad defensively has nothing to do with his defensive impact. He was a bad outfielder. If Marisnick can post an OPS near .700, a team with 3 Marisnicks would most certainly win more games than a team with 3 Fowlers. Defense matters, no matter how much you seem to feel otherwise.
Carter, Singleton, and Gattis's best defensive position is DH. Having one in LF may be doable if Marisnick is in center saving runs and even then it would not be preferable. The Astros were horrendous on defense last year. The thought of Carlos Lee patrolling LF is a scary thought for the Astros's ERA with current roster. I hope Gattis plays 1B. Carter, Springer, and Gattis are all right handed power. Astros need Singleton to step up as a lefthanded power option to fit between these guys. Carter may be the odd man out if Singleton can produce. As it is right now, Singleton should probably be on bench leaving the Astros really right handed heavy. I did like Seal's idea of extending Fowler on condition he plays LF. I suspect the only reason he is comfortable in CF is that he thinks he will get paid more there. I like Fowler's bat in the lineup and it would play even better with Gattis in lineup. This would allow Astros to have only one hole right now being 3B (or maybe SS if Lowrie gets any worse defensively). The Astros are making it very hard on their pitchers right now.
Never said it doesn't matter... just that the metrics that show runs leads to wins have been more validated and proven than the "runs saved" leads to wins are. Additionally, with the advent of more and more defensive shifts/4OF alignments that the Astros utilize more than ever, you can have sub-par defenders in the OF (something the metrics do not take into account). I'll also still take a lineup of Fowler's proven +.800 OPS over Marisnick's never hit at the MLB level OPS.
Those balls in the gap that Fowler doesn't get to most certainly cost our pitchers some very real runs. Just because there isn't an easy to follow stat to signify it doesn't mean that it doesn't happen.
Re-quoted for dramatic effect... as dramatic a statement as can be in January. I'm going to let them play a few games with a lineup that finally consists of a majority of actual proven MLB players (for the first time in awhile) before we start counting all the runs they "didn't save" via poor defense. Time for Sid to come up with more super-shifts that the game has never seen before!
His offense showed few positive signs. He is Matt Dominguez with the bat. Not enough walks. Maybe he did lose games in the OF. The team needs his bat, but that bat can play LF.
Certainly. There's always a trade-off. You can't have all 5-tool players out there. But you do need run-producers and guys who get on base to win games... they also get paid more than 1-tool defenders no matter how many "runs saved" the metrics show they give you.
Exactly... and Dominguez got far too many AB's for being merely an average 3B defensively (according to the metrics he was actually sub-par), and he eventually lost you more games while waiting for his hitting to come around. Certainly, CF defense is more important... but then again, this team was winning more than the current unit with Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio in CF at one point. They lost more games without his bat... and until he, or somebody else, says he's going to play LF, lets presume he's not.
"Mythical" runs sounds a lot like like you don't believe runs saved matters. There is error in defensive metrics. Fowler versus Marisnick....there is no where close to that error.
No... I just worry more about "runs created" than "runs saved". If I have to choose one, I choose the former even if metrics tell me that player could be a net negative (mainly because team defense is more than just what that one player does... the pitchers matter, the shifts matter, the park dimensions matter, the opponents matter... whereas what a player does at the plate is more individual). Especially in this scenario where Fowler is still a better baseball player than Marisnick.... he's not Craig Biggio-bad in CF out there. If the super-computers say otherwise, this front office shouldn't have any hesitation dumping Fowler for anybody/anything just to get Marisnick in the lineup no matter what... but something tells me they know fielding a quality lineup of run producers currently matters more right now.
