I don't. Mariano Rivera is a sure fire Hall of Famer, but that is it for closers over the last 30 years. If Hoffman gets in, then a number of other guys deserve in.
Bittersweet results today. I'm thrilled that Biggio got in, but I always expected him to. Bag's number was the interesting one. These results basically confirm my fears, he's gotten all the votes he's gonna get. Theses high and mighty d-bags have decided, without a shred of actual evidence, that Jeff Bagwell was a cheater. Because of that one of the games true luminaries is never gonna get into the HOF. F**k these voters. Innocent until proven of some kind of guilt, this is America.
Not even close. I don't think full-time relievers belong in the HOF, unless they are Mariano Rivera or Hoyt Wilhelm (and maybe Goose Gossage). Bruce Sutter is the argument for guys, but he really doesn't belong. Neither should Hoffman or Wagner as successful as they were. Why would bench players belong in the HOF? If they were good enough to be a great starter, most would have been starters.
I think people are really underrating non-steroid aspect of not voting in Bagwell. Bagwell is the type of player, steroids or not, that are consistently diminish. 1. Bagwell never hit any milestone. Voting someone in because he hit a certain, magical whole number is stupid, but that's the way it's always been. 2. Bagwell played the prime of his career at the Astrodome. And unfortunately he played in an era where no one cared about park adjustments. 3. Bagwell's value came from areas no one cared for from a power hitting 1st baseman. That Bagwell was a GG 1st base and stole bases does not really resonate with baseball writers. Steal 50 bases as a speedy center fielder? Awesome. Steal 25 as a 1st basemen? meh. I fully believe if Bagwell played one decade later, in MMP where HRs go up and steals become less useful, he'd be in the hall now.
alot of voters this year abstained, including some that have votes for bags. i still think he has a good chance. next year only Ken Griffey Jr is a slam dunk so I think he and Piazza get in for sure and Bags has a tiny chance of making it too. If not next year has Pudge and Manny, Bags has a better chance because neither will be 1st time.
I'm more optimistic. First and foremost, there's only one sure-fire candidate next year; there've been three each of the past two years. That's going to free up some column space and I think the drum will start to beat louder on Bagwell's behalf. Especially when guys like Chipper and Thome come on; Bagwell stacks up favorably to every hitter joining the ballot the next few years; it'll be hard to ignore him. Biggio going in is good for Bagwell; he'll get some run out of it and I think it'll stop possible vote/attention splitting. The Astros, for instance, can do a full-court Bagwell press next year. And I think the gains by Piazza (almost certainly going in next year), Raines and Schilling are encouraging and demonstrate that, despite the frustrations, the BBWAA can be swayed, they will reconsider - they're just slow/patient.
I'm grouping/responding to both comments because they both, I think erroneously, push a false narrative we need to correct. In his last full year ('04), Bagwell posted an .842 OPS; 116 OPS+ and 3.7 WAR. No, those #s aren't up to his standards (which were remarkably high) - but they’re still very useful/productive ML numbers. His last year ('05), when he played only 39 games - yeah, he was done. 2004 represented what should objectively be viewed as the end of a great career. He certainly wasn't Biggio-his-last-6-years bad. In terms of being a top 3 NL hitter for like 5 years – try 10 years. And it's top 2. From 1994-2003, only Barry Bonds was better. I'm not picking on you, SSG, or being high-and-mighty: we need to fully & accurately promote the extent of his greatness. He's the second greatest NL 1B of all-time, and one of the 8 best overall. And he's easily among the 50 best hitters in baseball history.
If that's your premise, how did Piazza's vote tally go up so dramatically this year? He's clearly not being totally grouped with the steroid users, or his vote tally would have never even been this high. He's in the "We will eventually put him in, but we're going to make him wait because we're suspicious" group that apparently will add 3-4 years to enshrinement. The good thing is, other than a positive test or an eye-witness testimony that discounts him as a steroid user... Bagwell can only improve in the eyes of the voters. Much more was made about his "career feats" (playing in the Astrodome, being a great defensive first baseman, winning all the awards) after this vote than any other year he's been on the ballot... it was almost as if this was his first year.
I've personally interacted with 4-6 voters who have said they'll vote for Bagwell in the next 1-2 years. I think he's actually well-positioned the more I've thought about it. You have to look at this with a great deal of perspective: he was the... 6th-7th best candidate on the ballot (Bonds, Clemens, Unit and Pedro were clearly ahead of him - the first two with obvious issues, and then you can debate Piazza and Smoltz - I'd... probably put Piazza ahead of him, personally). And he trailed Biggio by enough votes that he was never going to surpass him so he may have been as low as 8 on a lot of ballots. And then he becomes a victim of wanting to push Raines before he falls off, making sure this guy or that guy doesnt fall off... It's not hard to see him falling into the 11th and 12th slots - while still very much being considered a HoF'er. Well, now he moves up 4 slots, at least, settling in right behind Piazza. And rather than 3 new candidates jumping him as has happened the past two years, only one sure-fire guy joins the ballot in '16 (Junior). Griffey will almost certainly appear on 95+% of the ballots and Piazza north of 75%. After that... there are going to be a lot of available votes and Bagwell is next man up. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes an 8-10% jump next year, perfectly positioning him to be elected in '17 when no sure-fire guys join on the ballot. ETA: Also, I think next year is the year a lot of fence-sitters put the PED issue to bed. As Nick mentioned, highly unlikely anything incriminating comes out; he'll get some run with Biggio; I think getting back into baseball will help and I think a lot of voters - who are being patient - are going to finally accept that no evidence is going to emerge and there's not enough to convict. I'd even wager Heyman will vote for him in the next two years. It's truly a marathon but the finish line is starting to come into view.
Its his 3rd year of eligbility... both of those things existed before this year. The key is the timeframe of all of this... as long as more stuff about current steroid users comes out (more A-rod drama... which reminds everybody about Bonds/Clemens), and less comes out about those where there is no evidence, the mindset gets skewed away from guys like Bagwell and Piazza.
I wish I shared some of you guys optimism. Bagwell's vote% has basically remained neutral for 3 years. As for why him and not Piazza. Bagwell played with Cammy. We know how stupid some of these conclusions are, but to idiots in the media that's guilt by association, and there was also a number spike in 1994. Piazza doesn't have that easy link that the r****d voters can make. I really hope I'm wrong, and you are right, but I simply don't think that these voters will ever give him a chance.
Next year will be key. If he can't make a Piazza-like rise with very little other competition being eligible, it will be telling.
A little off topic but not thread worthy on it's own... Curt Schilling was on the radio yesterday saying that he thinks he didn't get voted in to the HOF because he's a republican and that Smoltz got more votes because he's a democrat (which he isn't). Has nothing to do with the fact that he's a jackass.
Nothing says "liberal conspiracy theory" like a bunch of old, white and resistant-to-change male print journalists.
Well, Bagwell *did* pack on muscles; he absolutely fit the profile. I think the biggest issue - in fact, even (disappointingly) Lance Z. promoted it when we interacted - is that too many people think he's just a power hitter. And if that's where you're starting from (just a pwer hitter), then the idea he packed on muscle and got more powerful (ie PEDs) is a pretty easy trip to make. But Bagwell was sooooo much better than "just a power hitter." I don't recall Piazza getting noticeably bigger and I think he supplemented any "steroids = power" concerns by hitting, like, .7500 every year. Piazza not being in is just insane. That guy freaking raked; good lord.
There is no question, there are a number of writers that do not like Schilling. They should put that aside when voting, but the writers are asses too.
Piazza gets the votes because he is the greatest hitting catcher of all-time. I think the difference is based purely on that narrative.
