[Grantland] Goldsberry - The Future of basketball is here

I think free throws and we don't have a second guy who can create his own shot that will kill us in the playoffs. Last season, we had Parsons to bail us out but we don't have that luxury anymore.

Again, if I'm a scout for an opponent, my focus is to shutdown Harden. In fact, you don't even have to limit his scoring. As long as you disrupt the flow of the offense, we're screwed.

 

This is my observation as well. I was pulling some data together but don't have time to post it now but my sense is that the 3pt shot while is more efficient is also more volatile or has greater variance. Some nights you might see shooters hitting everything and some nights nothing is going in.

I suspect on nights when we're hitting we win by large margins and when we aren't hitting them we potentially lose by large margins as well. I haven't researched it enough but the higher variance doesn't sit right with me and how it might impact the chances for a win.

I'll post more on this when I have more time but interested to see if anyone else had thoughts on the variance of the 3pt shot and the impact on the game.

 

and people wonder why Mchale always says "just give it to Harden" when we need a bucket

 

It what way is this crowning anyone? It is just simply stating that this is the way basketball is headed.

 

Appreciate the mention. I waffle a little on Lawson. Was against, and probably still leaning that way, but can make a reasonable argument (based on what you posted) for. His shooting percentages have declined every year in the league, but his FTAs have gone up.

On the positive side, I think a trade for Lawson would look similar to the trade for Kevin Martin, i.e. expirings and maybe a talented player or 2nd round pick. His value is probably at a low right now.

On the negative.......that contract. 3 years making $12+ per. Almost no chance you have sufficient cap space to sign a significant free agent for the next two years. Maybe we are at that point now, but I'm not sure.

If you could guarantee me that you could get a quality stretch 4 to come with Lawson, I might do it as an "all in" type move.

 

This team reminds me of the 2007-2008 Rockets:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2008.html


It's a high level defensive team with only average offensive efficiency.

We have a top level perimeter playmaker-scorer (Harden is better than TMac) and a top level center with some injury issues. We also got a PF (DMo/Scola) who can score some in the post, but isn't the kind of guy who demands double teams and causes havoc. The issue is that the rest of the perimeter guys don't generate a whole lot off the dribble so it is easier to shut down the offense when you have the one playmaker under control.

That team didn't go anywhere in the playoffs. And this team feels like it's headed to the same fate without a significant roster addition. Is Josh Smith our Ron Artest? Is there a Ron Artest out there?

 

Imo it's directly related and not a championship offense, since game slows and becomes half court sets. Similar to a spread offense in football, d gets little rest, gives up points, and not a proven way. You need to run the ball which I equate to post play.

It's hard to compare past teams since it's a new philosophy. Whether it works or not in playoffs remains to be seen, but the fact that we're not efficient at it is a problem, good that it's still early and can get better ball movement, chemistry, and rythym through season.

 

I haven't run the numbers on this, so I'm not sure if it is true or not, but just by the eyeball test I think that you could say the same thing about layups and shots at the rim as well- you are going to make them or miss them.

 

Yet, that Suns offense influenced the rest of the NBA, including the San Antonio Spurs immensely. The knee jerk cynicism is really fresh, though. Thanks for your contributions.

 

I think, when contested we are a horrible three point shooting team. I've always said that Golden State and Houston are like teams inverse of each other. GS takes and makes hard 3 point shots at a high efficiency. Houston, takes and makes easy (usually open or a late defender arriving) 3 point shots. That in itself is an aspect of our streakyness, but with that said, I'd rather be taking and making easier shots than hard ones.

 

Funny how a Rockets' article comes out the same day they play on ESPN. How convenient of them to push a product.

A cool excerpt that just touches on how complex analyzing stats can become.

Basically, some bad shots are good shots, now go figure out which players in the league fit the bill and from where on the court... sheesh.

And reading that you start to think... where does Josh Smith fit in? I figured it out. He's Leeroy Jenkins.

<iframe width="480" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/LkCNJRfSZBU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

If we could ever get some real three point shooters, this team would be so dynamic

 

Leeeeeeroooooooooy ..... Jeeennnnnnnnkkiiinnnsssss.

 

You lost me. I'm gonna need to see a graph or at least a flowchart.

 

Classic!!

At least I have chicken....

 

I hate how ESPN does this - they tell their guys, no one talk about team X until we are showing their game on prime time TV and then we can talk about them....so if the Lakers are on TV 15 times, people will be writing about them even though they aren't worth writing about....

 

Yes, Harden fits that 3pts, FT's, layup offense philosophy perfectly but what about the rest of the team? Subpar 3pt and FT shooters. It's a great write-up about Harden and that's about it.

 

I think the long term impact of Harden on the game will not be getting to the foul line, paint production or the generation of 3's, as much as it will be that young players are seeing the confidence and ease with which he makes his cross court passes. That to me, is new. The ability to get to the line has generally always been a skill that the best of the best have flashed, be it Kobe, Jordan, or whomever, but it's not something easily learned, as it has been on display for decades. I do however think the cross court confidence is new. That is what is opening up the court. There are new angles because of the mastery of that variable. And it seems that all of the Rockets are doing it now.

 

I'm glad it was Goldsberry on that beat, because until I saw his name on the top I assumed it was another "oh, the Rockets are efficient but so terrible to watch and easy to hate" pieces Grantland likes to run.

Great job going beyond the box score stats to show Harden's massive impact. Beard for MVP!

 

I would love that, but Lawson is a low maintenance franchise cornerstone. He's not going anywhere.