The answer is yes, and we may even fit a third star if Smith, Bev, and that third star can share the remaining pie. I'm just making some assumptions - maybe salary cap expert can weigh in on this. Current cap: 63.065M, luxury tax cap:76.829M, apron: 80.293M projected 2015cap: 66M -(luxury tax 79M) apron 83M If we are so lucky to get another star/ a truly above average player (eg. Dragic), we would have no choice but to send one of DMo/TJones, Papa, and Brewer off. Otherwise, we should be able to keep at least 2 of the 3. 2015 - 2016 salary: Howard 22.4M Smith* 7M (re-sign at 4yr 30M at max increase 4.5%; 3rd yr player option) Ariza 8.2M James 15.72M Beverley** 6M (re-sign at 4yr 29M = 6.7M/yr, max annual increase 7.5%) Dorsey 1M Motiejunas/DMo 2.3/2.5M X 1M star off the bench** 12M (re-sign at 4 yr 48M = 12M/yr) Canaan 1M Capela 1.24M X 1M X 1M or 1.5M vet min Johnson 1M Terry 1.5M vet min. ============================ 82.36M / 82.86M (very close to the assumed 83M tax apron) Which means, if another star arrives at the trade deadline and we still want to keep Smith, they will have to go next season: Papanikolaou 4.9M Jones/DMo 2.5/2.3M Brewer 4.9M Assuming Brewer is to stay after this upcoming trade deadline, the max we can afford to trade for the star at the deadline would be: Papanikolaou + Jones/DMo + 1st round pick , which I think is a very competitive offer for this star-level player. * Smith may be okay with a 7.5M/yr contract because he still has 2 years left from his Detroit's contract, so effectively he will get much less than the whatever amount anyway. Maybe Morey can give him an opt-out clause after 2 years. We have to use the salary cap to sign him because we don't have the Birds right for him, so we sign Smith before we retain Beverley and that incoming star ***. ** Beverley gets the security of a long contract (well deserved!). 6-7M/yr seems reasonable. *** A Kyle Lowry's type contract - Note: must have acquired via trade with the Birds right.
I think terry after this season will be on the sideline as an assistant coach. I think he would make a hell of an assistant coach with Mchale.
and we may even be able to keep both TJones/DMo if we instead get Canaan/Capela out and also offer those .5M contracts instead of the 1M ones... The Rockets doesn't have to trade TJones/Dmo at the trade deadline, but I'm assuming that the Rockets would have made a decision which 2 PF (TJones/Dmo/Smith) to retain beyond this season. I don't think they can retain all 3 beyond 2016 when TJones/DMo get their new contracts.
So much depends on how all these guys play over the next few months. I also think the Rockets want to take a good look at Shved while he is here. I know Shved hasn't looked good so far, but it's still early. Maybe Morey thinks Shved can be another Dragic. None of us were expecting much from Dragic and he turned out to be very good.
Okay someone check my math. The salary for 2015-2016 as of now (assuming Brewer picks up his PO, the Rockets trade or chose to decline KPap & Shved's option, Terry isn't re-signed and a cap hold for Bev of his current salary) is $60,926,879. Spoiler Howard $22,359,364 Harden $15,719,062 Ariza $8,200,000 Brewer $4,905,000 Jones $2,489,529 Dmo $2,288,205 Capela $1,242,720 Dorsey $1,015,421 Beverly $915,243 Cap Hold Canaan $947,276 Johnson $845,059 Total: $60,926,879 Scenario 1: Assuming a Salary Cap in 2015-16 of $67,000,000 and a Luxury Tax of $80,000,000. This would leave roughly $6,000,000 in cap space for summer 2015. That could be used to re-sign Smith. In this scenario you can sign Smith to just over MLE money and still match whatever Bev gets on the market. You could also sign JET back for the vet min. Scenario 2: Brewer drops his PO or is traded for no salary in return 2015 Cap Space = Roughly $11,000,000 for Smith and other FA's Scenario 3: Trade KPap and Capela for Dragic. Dragics Cap hold would eat all of the remaining cap space topping us out around $71mm. This leaves on exceptions to work with. Spoiler Howard $22,359,364 Harden $15,719,062 Ariza $8,200,000 Dragic $11,250,000 Cap Hold Brewer $4,905,000 Jones $2,489,529 Dmo $2,288,205 Dorsey $1,015,421 Beverly $915,243 Cap Hold Canaan $947,276 Johnson $845,059 Total $70,934,159 Scenario 3a: Re-Sign Dragic to $17-18mm/year + Match Bev to about $6mm/year + Re-Sign JET to the Vet Min $1.5mm. I don't know if roster space charges apply to fill out all 15 roster spots or just 12. Without any roster space charges this would bring the 2015-16 salary to just under $84mm Spoiler Howard $22,359,364 Harden $15,719,062 Ariza $8,200,000 Dragic $17,500,000 Brewer $4,905,000 Jones $2,489,529 Dmo $2,288,205 Dorsey $1,015,421 Beverly $6,000,000 Canaan $947,276 Johnson $845,059 Terry $1,500,000 Total $83,768,916 That's just under the assumed apron. So the question here is whether you can offer Smith Non-Taxpayer MLE money ($5.5mm) or Tax-Payer MLE money ($3.5mm). I think I'm hearing two different things from Crash and Bima. IF the team is just under the apron ($84mm in the example), can they offer the non-taxpayer MLE and go over the apron, or does the team need to still be under the apron even after offering the non-taxpayer MLE. In this scenario, if the tax apron is $84,000,000 and the team salary after re-signing and matching Dragic/Bev is $83,768,916, could they sign Smith to full non-taxpayer MLE at $5.5 and be hard capped after that, or can only offer the taxpayer MLE of $3.5mm?
The thing is that'd only be for one year assuming the cap blows up the following year. It might well into the tax for 2015-2016 but back under in 2016-2017. so there wouldn't be any repeat offender tax (which is when it gets real painful)
I don't think Bev will break the bank. Teams are going to ask themselves: What happens when this guy doesn't play next to Harden? I expect him to return. After what happened at Detroit, teams will have huge reservations about Josh Smith. Even if he shines the remainder of this season. Clearly, fit is more important for his success than with most players. If things go well with the Rockets, he will want to return and may end up being affordable. If another team opens Fort Knox and the Rockets don't win a championship, Morey will let him walk.
Nice analysis. If we can sign Smith to the full non-taxpayer MLE, that would be awesome. You also have assumed that KPap has to go and potentially Brewer after the season if we could get Dragic. Considering Dragic's age, would Morey be willing to spend 17-18M on Dragic and would Dragic really cost that much?
Terry said publicly that he will stay in the league as long as he can for one more championship. Stated if it took into his 40's he would play
I think 12-14M/yr for Dragic for 4 years seems fair. If we retain Dragic's Bird's right, we can start Dragic off at 12.5M in the first year. At 7.5% increase per year, the Rockets can offer 56M/4 yrs, which averages out to be 14M. It looks doable.
I think i read that he was really good friends with kerr and kidd. So he might get a some sort of coaching gig with gsw or the bucks.
I think the benchmark for salary is shifting (last year with Parsons/Hayward) and into this year up until the new cap expands. If Parsons is getting $15mm I don't think Dragic goes for less. Bledsoe's contract is also a barometer as well and as a RFA his contract should be slightly suppressed. Dragic in UFA should go for much more....
Once the Non-Taxpayer MLE is used, a team is hard capped at the apron for that season. It is not a matter of timing. There is no exceeding the apron allowed at that point.
Can someone with good knowledge about this tell me what will happen with the Pistons' cap space if let's say we sign for 4/40 type of deal. Is he going to be making money from both contracts?
