I think as long as he plays well and solidified his role in the team, and we make a decent playoff run, he'll sign back.
Can we worry about this season first? Lots of things can still happen. If you think about it, the way Harden and Smith fell into our laps, what more surprises could we find along the way
No, that doesn't work. If you offer more money than you could by using the Tax-Payer MLE, that automatically means you use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. And by using the latter, you're hard capped at the apron ($4 million over the tax line).
Again, the most we can offer Smith is 8.6 in total salary (Houston and Detroit) per year without using cap room. He was expecting to make 13.5. That's nearly a 5 million pay cut in the prime of his career. Perhaps Morey can promise to give him a significant pay raise once we get his bird rights, but that's not for another 2 years. A lot can change in 2 years.
What is the tax apron around next year you think? Assuming brewer picks up his PO and they move KPap +'shved + Jones for Dragic they'd be at the salary cap ($67mm) for 2014-2015 But if they resign Dragic to around $18mm, Bev to $6mm, and Terry to a vet met that'd put us around $84mm. If luxury tax next year is about $80mm next year ($76mm) this year then the hard cap is $84mm if we the MLE on smith? Meaning we couldn't do so with a hard cap?
Finsraider, do you think taking a cut makes a huge difference for him even though his aggregate remains to same, but is spread over 5 years?
We tell him to "go out and get the biggest contract" he can. Cuba will then offer the full max and then we will choose not to match. then the rockets will go find an equal player for half the price. Sound familiar?
I do. If you're an engineer that signed a contract guaranteeing you $100k for 3 years, but then the company was able to fire you and pay your $300k in total salary over a 10 year period (or $30k a year), would you take a paycut at your new job knowing that you will still get the $300k? Of course you wouldn't. That said, Smith shouldn't and probably won't get an offer close to his former salary. I think he tops out at about $10 million (or $11 in total salary with Detroit's contribution). Would he stay in Houston for $8.6 per for 3 years with a player option 3rd year and a promise from Morey to "make it up to him" once the Rockets get his bird rights? Probably not, but who knows. Maybe he really likes it here.
Personally, I'm really worried about losing this guy. We've never seen him in a truly winning situation before and watching him here, the guy looks absolutely special. He does things as a power-forward that other players just can't contend with, they just can't. You can almost see what Dumars saw when he signed him thinking that he could make the transition to small-forward. Though he wasn't able to make that transition, you could see what he brings to the table, and it makes up for our other players' deficiencies in terms of our small-forwards (they're not creators). He's also huge and I don't see a small-forward being able to handle him when he drives and powers through people. Defensively, he was solid. He really is the perfect piece for the team as was already constructed and I want him here for years to come. Let's enjoy it while we can, even if it can't last, at least for this year, we have a special team.
I don't know I just don't see it the same way, but I'm not making NBA money so who knows what the mind of a NBA multimillionaire is. But you're example is true for an engineer whose cost of living exceeds $30k a year. I doubt smiths cost of living exceeds $5mm a year. If it does he's in trouble come retirement.
Someone did a really good writeup on the myth that good players were going to Miami for less than their actual worth during the big 3 era. Bottom line, it turned out not to be true. Players almost always choose the money. They may give a million or two to stay in a good situation, but they rarely go beyond that. The exceptions to this rule are almost always older stars that want one last championship (Duncan, Nowitzki, Allen).
as I'm thinking this out it seems like the rockets would only be able to offer smith the taxpayer MLE if they want to remain flexible enough to resign all FA's without restriction. That becomes even more important if they acquire Dragic. If they want to offer the non taxpayer MLE they'll have to move brewer and release a number of players which isn't worth the bump of a few million in smiths supposed salary I think. Ultimately he'll get offered around the MLE from another team. Would he be willing to take 2mm or so less to stay with the rockets? I think so if he values the relationships, organization and if he fits well + we go deep into the playoffs. IMO
But if it's just stretched he not really taking less, just less up front. And the difference between taxpayer and no taxpayer MLE is a couple million. So the question is does he take less? I think he does if the factors i listed in my previous post are true.
Ideally, he signs 1 year + PO taxpayer MLE. That will allow for the best team next year with no restriction of the hard cap. (I'm assuming Morey gets a good-great player at the deadline). The following year when the cap jumps we can either use all of our cap space to sign him or make a wink wink deal to take care of him once we have his bird rights and have picked up one more significant role player.
Not an appropriate way to look at it IMO. His Detroit contract was not going to be his last pay day. His Detroit contract has now been "stretched" into what would've been a new contract for him in 2017. In some ways it's almost like Detroit voided his contract, since he was going to get paid by someone. In fact, I think someone could reasonably create a conspiracy theory around the Detroit release and the Houston signing.
