What's the going price for Dragic by the trade deadline?

I wouldn't be willing to give up more than the combo of NOP 1st pick, KPAP, TJones, Capela, Nick Johnson, Isiah Cannon, 2nd round picks, and overseas players (lull) in order Dragic. I think Tjones + KPap + NOP pick + Cannon/Johnson would do the trick.

 

NOP pick, terry, Capela and a future 2nd


No more no less

 

This is incorrect. Once you have spent the full MLE (or S&T but in this case just the MLE), then a hard cap is instantly put on the team. For this season, the moment we S&Ted for Ariza, our cap became $80.8mil. You cannot go over the hard cap no matter what. Not even for bird rights.

On the flip side, once we go over the luxury tax by re-signing Dragic and whoever else, the full MLE instantly becomes the MMLE and all S&Ts are no longer available.

So order of events is irrelevant. If the Rockets plan to spend a ton of money, they cannot use the full MLE at any time. There is no loophole.

 

The short answer is YES, the Rockets could keep that team together . . . IF Les Alexander is prepared to pay a bunch of luxury tax for at least one year. My guess is that one or two of those players moves on to make more money elsewhere than he would be worth to the Rockets, with the Rockets bringing in new players at lower salaries who reasonably replicate those players' production. Kind of like with Chandler Parsons this season.

Agreed, except that signing Smith to an MLE contract does not have to be timed around anything else, so long as the Rockets are operating over the cap. If he signs to the Non-Taxpayer MLE, then the Rockets will be hard-capped at the apron level no matter when they sign anyone else. If they sign him to the Taxpayer MLE, then there will be no hard cap, and the Rockets can re-sign their other own free agents using Bird rights without regard to cap constraints. It would simply be a matter of how much luxury tax Les Alexander would be willing to pay next season.

So long as the Rockets neither acquire a signed-and-traded player nor use the Non-Taxpayer MLE or the BAE, then they will not be constrained by a hard cap next season. They used those exceptions/S&T this season. That constraint is based on a season-by-season analysis. It doesn't carry over.

Not entirely true.

You are correct on your first point about a hard cap automatically being imposed once a team acquits itself of a S&T or uses the Non-Taxpayer MLE or the BAE. However, the luxury tax is only determined in the last day of the regular season, so teams can go over, back under, and back over again throughout the season. And even if a team would be over the tax, use of the MLE or S&T could still be done . . . so long as those moves would not result in the team thereafter going over the APRON level ($4 million over the tax threshold).

 

NOP, Knicks 2nd rounder, Capela, and Shved

 

That NOP is likely to be in the 5-10 range. Don't see AD being that healthy as the season progresses.

 

Based on what? Is he an injury risk? Nop might sneak in and get the 8th seed imo

 

NOP pick, a 2nd, Terry, Shved, Capella and cash...

NOP pick, a second, Terry, Capella and NJohnson or canaan if they will pull the trigger early....

and if they have any interest in Dorsey, Black (if still around) or TJones (if tradeable) they are a throwin...

 

He hasn't proven to be healthy in his career. NOP aren't going to pass OKC or Suns for 8th spot. Denver will likely end up having a better record too. I think they end up with 10th at best and possibly 11th seed.

 

Here is my projected (and imminent, i.e., by the end of December) trade, see my recent posts in the Trade Ideas thread for details and rationale:

Jason Terry, Kostas Papanikolaou, and Gerald Green to Brooklyn

Deron Williams, Mason Plumlee, Clint Capela, Nick Johnson, and the Pelicans first round pick to Phoenix

Goran Dragic, P.J. Tucker, and (soon to be waived) filler (either Markel Brown or Cory Jefferson) to Houston

This creates the open roster spot that will be used to sign Josh Smith.

Houston may, on 2/19 (trade deadline), package one or more young/cheap players (Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, Isaiah Canaan, Tarik Black) with the expiring contracts of Corey Brewer (technically not expiring but Brewer will not exercise his 2015-16 player option IMO) and Alexey Shved for a fairly expensive veteran, probably a big man, possibly a "stretch four." Al Horford would be great although who knows what will and will not be available at the trade deadline. If Horford is reluctant to sign an extension with Atlanta then the Hawks will (IMO) auction him off to the highest bidder. This gives Houston an absurdly good core of Harden, Howard, Horford, Dragic, Ariza, Josh Smith, Beverley, Tucker, and possibly either Jones or Motiejunas (Atlanta likely demands one if not both players). My god, what a team! Expensive, yes, but the next collective bargaining agreement will look very different than the current one. Team payrolls will be MUCH higher in 2016-17 than they are in 2014-15.

Part of the reason why (IMO) Morey wants to assemble this sort of roster, and to sign guys to extensions this offseason, is because salaries are about to skyrocket. Houston's 2015-16 payroll (after re-signing Dragic, and Horford) will seem massive, but in 2016-17, it will suddenly seem perfectly reasonable, relatively speaking. The contracts being dished out under the next CBA will make the large contracts handed out this offseason to Dragic and Horford look like chump change.

 

I like Bev only because he plays D

 

I didn't mention this because I thought it really doesn't matter. Because if you are over the luxury tax and spend the full MLE, then you automatically go over the apron by default because the full MLE > $4mil.

Either way, I don't think the order matters. If the Rockets trade for Dragic and will extend him, I'm pretty sure whether we use the MLE first or give Dragic his payraise make a difference in terms of the cap. Maybe I'm wrong here.

 

NOP is a pretty good team, and it is mostly likely that the pick will be 13th or 14th.
AD doesn't seem to be more injury-prone than most bigs in the league. Even if he is hypothetically out for many games, given the lack of incentives to tank for NOP, it's extremely unlikely to have the pick better than the 10th. Remember there are so many awful teams in the east.

 

we dont realistically have a way to trade for him until the deadline without trading something we don't want to, keep in mind they'd probably make whoever trades for him take Zoran as well.

 

PHX will pass the Pelicans for sure...I can see DEN, SAC passing them too. I don't see AD being that healthy as the 2nd half of season goes. I think it will be the 9th or 10th pick.

 

I love Goran Dragic. He was one of my favorite players when we had him but we don't 'need' him to be contenders. Anything additional just gives us better odds but there comes a threshold when the extra talent brings depreciated value. This team is already a strong title contender as constructed.

 

He is a fine 3 point shooter too,and a great rebounder. His toughness cannot be measured in words. He is always ready to challenge the best players in the league. There are many players who are more talented than him, but there only one Patrick Beverely.

 

the suns can waive two guys (expiring) on their roster, shavlik randolph and the guy they just traded for.