I say make a push before the Correa years (which would be now). And his ascension/development can be the addition that gets them from good to great. They will likely have a different core by the time he is in his pre free agent prime years (which eill acquire more moves), so might as well book-end those time frames with some competitive baseball. If Hammels is willing to waive what he needs to waive, he'd be a tremendous acquisition. Hell, can we give them back Singleton?
4 years at $100M or 5 years at $122M. That isn't a major value. His career FIP is 3.48. He's never pitched an AL game. Lester shows us that he probably would get more in FA, but I wouldn't call that a major value. I'd love to have Cole Hamels, but the price couldn't be anywhere close to what the Phillies have been looking for.
Agree with most of this. I'm not necessarily against acquiring Hamels, but he is a big risk in my book at that contract. What Phillies want would be key. I would just caveat that any deals that Astros make need to be examined closely so that jump starting contention doesn't become an anchor when the Astros could be strong contenders. I really doubt there is a deal that Phillies and Astros both accept. I consider Hamels on a close to fair deal if Astros were buying him on free market for money left on contract. Astros start throwing in prospects and it could be an over pay really quick. Phillies would need to pay Astros the cash value for whatever the Astros send over. I don't think Phillies do this.
Well the Phillies aren't necessarily dumping payroll... they're jettisoning assets to replensih the farm. I'm sure there would be financial negotiations for certain prospects they are actually interested in. The Astros should be able to offer one of the most competitive prospect packages, amongst other teams, and its time to start utilizing this resource to get the big league club competitive again. I doubt they'd be on the hook for the entire Hammels contract if they're giving up some plus prospects in return. I'm also not as concerned about the contract/payroll implications... I don't see them spending big on free agents every season but if the right piece is available, they'll make exceptions. They should also be in position to add at least one key farm piece each year (Appel, Correa, TBD) which is akin to adding a free agent. Hammels can/should age well. Not necessarily a hard thrower... a lefty... and has big game experience (which doesn't count for anything UNLESS you're a starting pitcher).
Depends on how progressively you value WAR in the FA market. Back when WAR was $5-6m per win his deal was fair. Now that WAR is going for $7-8m per on the FA market, it looks like a decent amount of excess value. His 3.48 FIP is 12th among active starters. He's firmly a #1 starter who can pitch like an ace in the big games.
I suspect the Astros are holding back budget for one free agent or trade acquired ToR pitcher (25-30 million per year). I think the Astros see their window opening up in 2016. This year, they are paving the way to get a team ready for that year. Cole Hamels would be very nice for 2015 and definitely fit the bill of ToR for 2015. Hamels has not showed signs of aging, yet. However, I suspect the Astros are very risk adverse and they will want to make the decision on who this pitcher for 2016, 2017, and 2018 closer to 2016 (or maybe even in offseason after 2016) to push team from good to great. When you start looking at a guy that will be about 1/6 of the contending team payroll for Astros (thinking it is somewhere between 110 and 130 million), that's a lot of eggs in one basket and caution needs to be exercised by the Astros. Granted, if the Phillies make a very good offer, I am sure the Astros will listen because Hamels is definitely a very good pitcher now.
Guessing that the Phillies would want Appel plus 2/3 top 20 prospects. Is that too high a price for the Astros to pay?
Prospect-only trades have really gone out of style. The Phillies desperately need young cheap ML talent. I'd expect them to ask for Keuchel or McHugh as the primary piece plus a couple of non-Correa/Appel prospects. Maybe Keuchel plus Ruiz and McCullers.
Agreed... except next year is next year... different pitchers available and prospects possibly with different (lesser) values after another year of exposure. If a deal can be struck, I don't see them hesitating... neither for prospect reasons or payroll reasons. Windows of contention are truly mythical. Most recently, the Rays and Orioles have gone from sub 70 win teams to contenders just within one year. The Royals went from 72 wins to 86 wins to an 89 win World Series team (and the 86 win team probably could have won a few more games with some additional resources). Yes, the Astros aren't expected to contend next year... but with a full year of Springer, a possible full consistent year of Carter, continued OBP excellence from Fowler/Altuve, repeat stellar pitching from Kuechel/McHugh, a revamped bullpen... and adding a ToR starter? Mind you, these are all best-case scenarios, but that team has at least a chance of making some noise.
I'd say Ruiz/Moran are inter-changeable... meaning if a team wants one, but not the other, and that's the only hold-up point to the deal, the Astros should give them the one they want.
Yes. I think Hamels is on a fair contract. In other words, it is worth what you could get on free market without trading anyone. If he has little or no aging, you are only talking about 2-4 WAR for life of deal upside. I think Appel will be worth well over 2-4 for his club controlled contract.
Acquiring Hamels isn't about further WAR upside, it's about getting a TOR starter with significant control left. That's going to cost a decent premium. Maybe not Appel, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was the starting point for discussion. I love me some prospects, but Appel isn't as valuable as you think. The Marlins traded Andrew Heaney, a comparable prospect, for freaking Dee Gordon. The untested, high-upside prospect isn't as valuable as it once was.
All future predictions are just predictions. I am more willing to bet on Correa years than pre-Correa years. If the Astros need a ToR starter in 2015, they should have been aggressive on Lester and Max.
Hamels has been around a 4 WAR player each season, but Steamer also projects his WAR to only be 2.5 next season. I don't see a lot of exta value there. Last year was the best year of his career, but it also featured an increase in fastball velocity, which is unusual at age 30. For me, yes it is. I wouldn't want to deal Appel for Hamels. Mostly because there aren't a lot of arms with his ceiling and as close to the majors for us. I'd be far more willing to part with Feliz or Velasquez (guys I like a lot), or Foltynewicz (who I think will never harness his potential). They will ask, but we shouldn't entertain that notion. I'd trade less proven MLB talent, but if we want to compete, we need Keuchel & McHugh with Hamels.
Ugh. Good player, good deal, and no prospects were sent out. Astros can't even outbid the Yankees for Headley. Usually, the Astros can't outbid the Yankees for anyone..but considering that deal...ugh.
Allegedly they DID outbid the Yankees. He wanted to stay with NY though so ultimately it didn't matter. He's a good player, but he's not the type of player the Astros should gamble on in my opinion. Risky medicals. Yankees can afford to risk needed to find his replacement if he gets hurt, Astros probably couldn't.
We signed Dan Johnson to a minor league contract. http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/astros-sign-1b-johnson-to-minor-league-contract/
