I'm with you. I find it concerning that they're so consistently missing on the FAs they have decided to pursue. However, until it is a superstar FA that we miss out on I won't be too worried. The only one that sticks out to me was missing out on Abreu last summer. Other than that, FAs like Robertson, Miller, Choo, etc. don't really bother me. It seems to me that the best bullpens in the MLB aren't formed from high priced FA acquisitions, but rather from a solid internal development of an organization's young pitchers and smart low-priced FA assets. I would actually love to see the Astros go after Lowrie. He didn't have his best season last year, but his 2013 season provides a lot of hope of what could be if he were to return to Houston. However, don't count me as a fan of Chase Headley. Sure he gets on base at a good rate, but in my opinion he doesn't stay out enough to give him a contract in the range of 4 years $60 million.
If they're not landing these guys via the overpay strategy... I doubt they're going to be in the market for the real heavy hitters/pitchers that will now require $175-$200 million dollar contracts. Their best bet is to develop those stars themselves, and lock them in at the first chance they get. Absolutely correct. The Royals last year were a perfect example of this, and that bullpen carried them to the playoffs along with to the World Series. The Astros bullpen failures last year were magnified by an inept manager and guys with in-defined roles. I think Hinch already seems to have a bullpen philosophy that he will employ. Porter had no knowledge of any sorts of philosophies. Additionally, they have a glutton of young arms that getting them bullpen work could be the best way to get them into the big leagues. Lowrie would be a nice short-term upgrade. Provides lineup flexibility as a switch-hitter. Not sure why they'd commit the years and money to Headley, unless they're not as high on Ruiz/Moran as they pretended to be, or they plan on packaging those guys in another trade.
I thought it was ridiculous when he rejected the 6 year $144 million offer from Detroit last year... but not only will he now get more money than that but he gets to choose where he wants to go as well. Same goes for Lester, who rejected Boston's extension offer last year... and will now get double that. With the way contract values are exponentially going up, it makes sense in some cases that agents are advising players to wait it out.
yeah you're right. Lester is said to have his decision today so well be interesting to see who throws what at Max after this deal goes down
The Astros would not have traded for Moran if they were pretending they were high on him. Headley is a very good player at that price and the Astros need a 3B now. Astros have no problem making trades so I would say that I agree with the second part even if they don't actually have a specific plan yet. Astros have said that they try to acquire/develop the talent in minors with little regard for position because they can trade players at a stocked position for something they need at another position. The Astros probably being the club that values Moran the most will probably have a hard time getting what they value for him in a trade. Someone did mention that the Astros were trying Moran at second base (I'm skeptical of him having much value at 2nd). The Astros might want to use him as a backup at several positions to get his bat in the lineup once he reaches majors. I suspect this will be late in 2015...too late to really help the Astros in 2015.
Well, if their offer is really for 5 years, then yes... they are not only getting a 3B now, but they're planning on having one for the forseeable future which would either then make Moran expendable or force him to go to another position. I agree that Moran doesn't seem to have as much value at any other position, so their best bet is that his power rounds into form at AAA which makes him more valuable in either a trade or a potential move to 1B (presuming Headley doesn't also reject the Astros offer of most years/money). Maybe he can make an Alex Gordon-like transition to the OF... who knows.
Agreed; you're essentially paying him for his 2012 season. His seasons before/after have been... good, nowhere great. And he was an average player last year, ranking 20th among qualified 3B in OPS.
I have no problem getting a good 3B now and the foreseeable future. Even though I like Moran, he should not keep the Astros from cementing 3B with a guy that is better than him and likely (greater than 50% chance) will remain better than him for the foreseeable future. Astros need to have a team ready for Correa. Making Moran a trade chip doesn't really concern me as he still has value in trades. I do suspect that the Astros get him MLB ABs before trading him in the unlikely event the Astros get Headley.
OPS doesn't capture defense. He had an average offensive performance among starting 3B last year in a down year offensively with superb defense. His defense makes him above average. If projecting him on 2012....his salary would be double what it is projected. He projects to be close to a 4 WAR player with defense taken into account...basically, his 2013 year is probably the closest to his true talent over the last three years offensively in my opinion. Granted, we don't agree on the value of defense as Headley is a lot like Donaldson in that they just flat out get to balls than the average 3B would not on a regular basis.
He was 8th in WAR this year; 9th in 2013. He's a very good defensive 3B... who doesn't hit very much. Extrapolate his outlier season ('12) and his season WAR totals: 3.9, 2.8, 3.8, 3.5. And very little chance, at 31, he gets better. If he were agreeable to a 1-2 year deal to be our stopgap... cool. But a multi-year, big dollar salary doesn't terribly interest me.
Quit getting everybody excited about Headley!... if they get spurned again, despite offering the most money, George will be getting very upset! (rumors are he'll also be willing to go to the Yankees for less years/guaranteed money, but we shall see...)
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>After missing out on Robertson and Miller, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> still intend to acquire multiple relievers. Exploring trades as well as free agents.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <ahref="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/542375678029463552">December 9, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>With <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> reportedly still looking for relievers, and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Angels?src=hash">#Angels</a> having some extras, could be a match for SS Marwin Gonzalez. January maybe</p>— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffFletcherOCR/status/542376562620788736">December 9, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I've heard 4 yr for 65 million. I tend to value on fWAR which should be approximate to bWAR. I expect his future value over the next 4 years to be approximately 3.5-4 fWAR, 3-4 fWAR, 2.5-3.5 fWAR, and 2-3 fWAR if healthy. Using the lower numbers, I get a total of 11 fWAR (miscalculated yesterday). Considering fWAR has been going for 8-10 million per this year, that is well over 65 million over 4 years and covers the risk of injury. I would guess 1.5-2.5 for a fifth year. Pretending the 2012 year didn't happen and using your numbers as baseline, I would get 9 WAR dropping a half a WAR from each season. At 8 million a WAR, that is still 72 million over 4 years on the low side projection. If WAR drops to close to 7 million per, you are at 63 million. Still a bargain considering this is my low side projection. I am not seeing the downside to signing him to 4 or 5 years at the approximate per year numbers I have heard. Especially considering a guy I would put in the same WAR range over the foreseeable future, Sandoval got 5-95.
Those are pretty good WAR numbers. He hits plenty. His worst career OPS+ in 97, and that was 2010. He's an above average offensive player that is a great defensive player. If you think 4/$65M is a big dollar salary, you will never be a fan of signing FAs.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Astros liked Miller more than Robertson. If there’s a team that’s not inclined to overpay for “proven closer” status, it’s prob Astros</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/542396496113831936">December 9, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Weird. Miller was better last year, but would have expected the Astros to value the consistency of Robertson. I am not a proponent for the Astros paying for saves, but have no problem with the Astros paying a reliever for getting people out at a high rate.
