I have created a list of undervalued players. In other words, players loved by advanced stats but unappreciated (or potentially unappreciated) by their current team, and probably by the market (i.e., other teams), in general. We should all recognize by now that Morey always targets undervalued players, and that he refuses to overpay for talent. Goran Dragic and All Horford = big names, big asking prices. NOT undervalued! Here are some undervalued players who I have identified (in alphabetical order): Lavoy Allen Bismack Biyombo Jimmy Butler DeMarre Carroll Ed Davis Gorgui Dieng Reggie Evans John Henson Kyle Korver Carl Landry Meyers Leonard Pablo Prigioni Henry Sims Lance Stephenson Mirza Teletovic Isaiah Thomas P.J. Tucker Jeff Withey Tyler Zeller Let's now look at each player's situation. Lavoy Allen. The Pacers are presently hanging around and could emerge as a frightening opponent if they can get some stars healthy. If they fall out of the playoff race by early February, then look for nonessential veteran pieces to be traded for draft picks and/or cheap young players. Allen makes less than $1 mil and his contract expires at the end of the season. A second round pick gets it done. However, Larry Bird tends to overvalue his own players, plus, the East is so bad that the Pacers will likely still be in the playoff hunt in February. Prognosis: Unlikely. Bismack Biyombo. Charlotte does not play Biyombo much and presumably view him as a major bust. Biyombo makes $4.1 mil this season and he hits restricted free agency this summer. Charlotte likely does not tender him a qualifying offer which means they will get nothing for him when he walks. Thus, he can be had, for next to nothing, although Houston does not have useless guys making around $4 mil on its roster, so you would need to use the traded player exception ("TPE") obtained in the Jeremy Lin trade to acquire him, OR trade both Jason Terry and Kostas Papanikolaou (both are on expiring contracts) for a Biyombo-Lance Stephenson package. Prognosis: Easily acquired. Jimmy Butler. Chicago loves this guy, but do they love him enough to match a max offer sheet for him this summer? They should, because he is an amazing two-way player, and probably the best all around player on that team. A smaller lineup with Butler at SF and Trevor Ariza at PF would be an insanely difficult lineup to match up with. However, my guess is that Chicago is in win-now mode and will not want to deal away Butler for the sort of picks-prospects package that Houston is peddling. Too bad. Prognosis: Unlikely. DeMarre Carroll. Too bad that Danny Ferry got himself canned for non-basketball reasons because he was doing a great job. Does the new regime properly value the assets inherited from Ferry? Maybe not. Carroll is exactly the sort of player you target if you are Houston, as Carroll's team is under new management and Carroll is going to be a 29-year-old unrestricted free agent next summer. He makes $2.5 mil, so you need him packaged with another player (Paul Millsap?) for Terry-Papanikolaou-picks-prospects OR you'd simply absorb him via the TPE (Atlanta would expect a second round pick in return). Prognosis: Easily acquired. Ed Davis: The Lakers are going nowhere and should immediately trade away everything on the roster besides Julius Randle for draft picks, cheap young guys on rookie contracts, and expiring contracts. But they are the Lakers, and they do not make rational decisions in the post-Jerry West era. Extremely difficult people to do business with. Too bad, because Davis would be a nice rotation player for every single team in the league. Prognosis: Unlikely, although check again three days before the February trade deadline. Gorgui Dieng. What a player! And what a badly managed team! If Houston could pry him away somehow... but this likely does not happen, and for the reasons why Ed Davis is a hard guy to acquire. Namely, bad management. It is difficult to reason with an unreasonable person. Plus, Flip Saunders is afraid of getting ripped off. Very difficult team to do business with. Prognosis: Unlikely. Reggie Evans. This guy has been undervalued for his entire career and is still going strong! Plus, Sacramento has a glut of PFs, and Evans is the oldest. But I think Houston can and willd better. Prognosis: Easily available but not a primary trade target. John Henson. Henson is clearly the odd man out of that young Milwaukee frontcourt but remains a very nice player. He is in the third year of his rookie contract so he rains cheap through the end of next season. What would Milwaukee want? The Pelicans pick. Or maybe Isaiah Canaan, and/or Donatas Motiejunas. And maybe Houston would need to take Ersan Ilyasova's contract off their hands. This would probably do the trick for the Bucks: Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson to Houston; the Pelicans first round picks, Jason Terry(expiring contract), and Francisco Garcia (expiring contract) to Milwaukee. Prognosis: Primary trade target. Kyle Korver. See the Carroll analysis above. Korver is an incredibly good player, undervalued for years until Danny Ferry scooped him up. If the new regime stupidly undervalues him, Houston should go for it. If the Rockets cannot pry away Korver then perhaps Carroll can be their consolation prize. Prognosis: Unlikely but should be aggressively pursued. Carl Landry. Again with the Kings PF logjam. And, as with Evans, the Rockets have better options. Landry would definitely be playing for the Rockets right now but, again, we can do better, I think. Prognosis: Possibly available but not a primary trade target. Meyers Leonard. Like Biyombo in Charlotte, Leonard is viewed as a bust and can thus be easily acquired, and he is a pretty good backup C. Portland wasted money on the terrible Chris Kaman. Prognosis: Easily acquired but not a primary trade target. Pablo Prigioni. What an undervalued player! However, would Houston demote the young, promising Canaan for the old (but much better) Prigioni? Probably not. However, if Canaan must be included in some other trade, and the Rockets find themselves in need of a replacement backup PG, Prigioni is going to be at the top of their list. Prognosis: Easily acquired but only targeted if Canaan is traded. Henry Sims. Nice backup C. Philly would probably trade him for a second round pick, or the rights to Sergio Llull, or Nick Johnson. Prognosis: Easily acquired. Lance Stephenson. The classic buy low trade target. He was insanely good last season, and he is relatively cheap. If you can trade a non-lottery (or late lottery) first round pick for him, you do it, and you don't look back. This works: Pelicans first round pick, Terry, and Kostas Papanikolaou to Charlotte; Stephenson and Biyombo to Houston. I love this, but I love the Henson proposal, too. Prognosis: Primary trade target. Mirza Teletovic. Nice player, and his team is going nowhere. But is his team reasonable? Probably not. Again, it is hard to reason with an unreasonable person. Prognosis: Probably not available, at least not at the right price. Isiah Thomas. Terrific player! Phoenix may shop him around if they decide that they want to re-sign Goran Dragic to a max or near-max contract. Or not. They obviously like Thomas. Prognosis: Unlikely. P.J. Tucker. Like Thomas, here is a very nice player signed to an excellent bang-for-your-buck contract. I think Phoenix properly values both him and Thomas, but who knows. Prognosis: Unlikely. Jeff Withey. Another very nice, and very cheap, backup C. Houston needs one. Of course, so does New Orleans, although if New Orleans is clearly lottery bound in early February, stay tuned: Prognosis: Unlikely, but check back in two months. Tyler Zeller. Exact same analysis as Withey. Prognosis: Unlikely, but check back in two months. Recommended course of action: 1) Waive Francisco Garcia (early December). 2) Use Lin TPE to absorb Tayshaun Prince's contract (early December). Throw in a second round pick if necessary. 3) Trade the Pelicans pick, Jason Terry, and Kostas Papanikolaou to Charlotte for Lance Stephenson and Bismack Biyombo (second half of December). Call Morey crazy for now but thank him later. 4) Trade Donatas Motiejunas, Nick Johnson, 1-2 second round picks, and Tayshaun Prince to Milwaukee for John Henson, Ersan Ilyasova, and filler (Kendall Marshall) (first half of February). Revised roster Starting lineup PG Patrick Beverley (32 minutes/game) SG James Harden (36 min/g) SF Trevor Ariza (32 min/g) PF Terrence Jones (24 min/g) C Dwight Howard (32 min/g) Key reserves Lance Stephenson (28 min/g) John Henson (24 min/g) Isaiah Canaan (16 min/g) Bismack Biyombo (16 min/g) End of the bench (little or no playing time) Ersan Ilyasova Troy Daniels Joey Dorsey Kendall Marshall Stashed in the developmental league Clint Capela Tarik Black Until Jones returns you are giving his minutes to Henson, Ilyasova, and maybe Black. Ilyasova is not the player he was 2-3 years ago so don't get your hopes up.
LOL to any deal for Lance Stephenson. And ROFL to any deal for Lance Stephenson sending out the Pels pick. If Morey saw this he'd fall out of his chair.
So Utah gets Dorsey who most Rocket fans think is no good, some undrafted guy only the Rockets fans like and two second round picks for a 22 year old Center who is averaging 13 ppg and 6 rebounds on a rookie contract. Seems fair
Kanter will be a restricted FA .... They will have matching rights. They wont lose him for nothing .... unless they don't match. Because of this , he has much more value than you think .... how much more ?? I don't know ..... but I believe they would want more than a couple 2nd rounders and Joey Dorsey , hell , you probably have to give someone a 2nd rounder to take on Dorsey's contract if you want to clear cap room.
Why do we want Kanter again? His defense is atrocious. DMo is a much better player at this point, since it's probably a toss on offense, but on the defensive end DMo looking like Hakeem in comparison.
I was just thinking that the bright side of all of these injuries is that guys like D-Mo, Canaan, Black and Papanikolau have really had a chance to increase their trade value. And I think they've done so. I hope Morey is able to capitalize.
At the deadline.... NOP 1st, 2nd, Llull for Dragic into the Lin TPE Capela, TJones, Nick Johnson, Terry, 2nd for Millsap Dragic / Beverely Harden / Canaan Ariza / Papanikolaou Millsap / DMo Howard / Black
Jason Terry, KPap, DMo, NO 1st, 2017 1st For Kyle Korver and Paul Milsap Lineup PG: Beverly, Canaan SG: Harden, Korver SF: Ariza, Korver PF: Milsap, TJones C: Howard, Black
Houston Receives: Goran Dragic into TPE Phoenix Receives: Ryan Anderson New Orleans Receives their pick back + Joey Dorsey Simple and beneficial for everyone.
This is likely the most realistic (for the other team to bite) trade proposal I've seen around. Hate to lose Jones and Terry though.
