<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>One club that’s talked to the Astros about Jason Castro said the asking price has been very high: “Way out of our interest level."</p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/532649569536839680">November 12, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Sounds about right... they're going to try to sell him for 2013 value. Eventually will have to settle for less.
Didn't A-Rod get a mammoth extension at that age? Teams will overpay for proven production, regardless of age (seems like they're willing to compensate for all the years where they underpay players for far more production, when they're all young).
I doubt it... I'm surprised they didn't deal him last year. Frankly, I'd rather trade him now and get his arbitration raised salary off the books (and apply that to other needed resources). He's about to be overpaid for what he's actually producing. Conger/Stassi can hold down the position and if the team is really seriously in the hunt, and the above guys aren't cutting it, they could always unload prospects for an established veteran catcher.
Brad Ausmus Astros WAR = 4.9 Jason Castro Astros WAR = 7.1 I remember how hard it is to have good catchers. Castro has a long way to go before he is getting overpaid.
He's possibly getting overpaid in the stance that a lot of his bump in salary (and that WAR you just posted) will be based on his 2013 performance, not his 2014 regression. There's the additional fact that he does have decent value for being a non-lite hitting catcher that is still in his arbitration years. At this point in the rebuild, either the Astros should be looking to extend these guys.... or they need to trade them before their free agency year (for Castro, that's next year). I don't see them looking to extend Castro.
He's projected to get $4m in 2015. Even if he put up 1.2 WAR again that still wouldn't be that overpaid given the demands of the position and his pitch framing. I'd think you're underestimating how difficult it is to acquire a veteran catcher who's worth anything. Especially if its a prospects for vet deal.
I don't think he is going to be extended either (especially when considering he isn't one of Luhnow's guys). That being said, it isn't Luhnow-like to trade a player with a deflated value. The only one he has really unloaded in that situation is Carlos Lee and that was a major miracle.
You could say they got rid of Cosart in part because they had a deflated value of what he is, and expected further regression. On the flip side, they hung onto Brett Wallace, Lucas Harrell just waiting for their value to come back up, and it never did. This is also the first group of guys (Fowler included) who were decent prospects and now entering their arbitration and soon to be free agency years... they're either worthy of long-term deals, or they're not.
While we can all agree 2013 was largely an aberration, Castro had a .735 OPS in 2012, why are you so convinced that his .651 OPS last season was a clear indicator of his performance level. I think a change in approach can still get him back to that 2012 level. And as for being overpaid, Castro still won't be making more than 5 million or so next year, which even for us isn't really prohibitive. It's just not smart to trade a guy whose shown a high level of play while his value is at it's lowest level. He doesn't become a free agent until 2017. If we are being low balled than hold onto him.
You're forgetting that the Astros appear to know what a player is or isn't by the time they're 24... they appeared to know Castro wasn't going to be "better" than his 2013 year, and appropriately shopped him last off-season. I'm looking at it more that if he duplicates his 2014, or somehow regresses even more... he will have absolutely zero value. (not to mention he's still going to have game limitations due to his health issues). I'm looking at it more as an opportunity to capitalize on his still remaining value (albeit diminished) now... as he doesn't seem like somebody the Astros are going to lock up to be the catcher for his entire career. And yes, his $5-7 million dollar salary for next season can (and should) be easily absorbable on this team... but its still going to be inflated more due to the 2013, and less due to the 2014 (in a perfect world, he'd be making the exact same amount he did this year... but he won't be). I think this team could be just as good, if not better, with potential players they get back for Castro, along with using his intended salary and getting some more pitching (or using it to add to a large offer made to a free agent).
I think Castro's value is too low to return anything significant right now. I bet the best the Astros could do is a fringy prospect, and if there's one thing we don't lack it's fringy prospects. If Castro does repeat last season, or even regress and we can't get anything I don't think it's that big a loss versus the potential rewards we could reap if he does bounce back. FWIW I do think they should be looking to move him, I just don't think we should be trying to dump him.
Selling low on a young player who starts at the hardest to fill position doesn't seem to be a good move. I think you look to see if Castro can return to his All-Star form. More upside there than in any fringy prospects you can get in return. And his salary should really be a non-issue unless anyone thinks the Astros' payroll is going to skyrocket next year. They can keep him and still put plenty of money into pitching or wherever.
