It got them to OT... with a chance to win... without the stigma of making what would be the most idiotic call in NFL history if the 2 point conversion was unsuccessful (and it really isn't all that "ballsy" considering there was still 41 seconds on the clock, and a FG still beats you).
What do you think are the odds of each of these 3 things happening? 1. Odds of Texans converting the 2pt conversion 2. Odds of Cowboys going down the field in 40 seconds or whatever for a FG 3. Odds of Texans winning in OT
But I'd be ok with taking that chance again, and again, and again. Missing a 53 yarder isn't a fluke, FYI. Those are 50/50 shots, at best. Once again, I found it riskier to send the game into extra time given how poorly our offense had been playing. That's pretty much how I feel. And it supports my position. The Texans were very fortunate to be in a position to *win the game*, because given how poorly they had played on offense to that point, I gave them pretty much nill chance to close it out in OT. Hell, we even won the damn coin toss and couldn't close it out. Disagree. Sending the game into OT was a poor decision. I did not like our odds in extended time on the road against what had to that point proven to be a better team. And then they punted. So... yeah.
LOL. Wow. I love this so much. So we have no faith in our defense and the "momentum" factor somehow does not apply to the 2-point conversion try (yet it does to OT).
1. 50% (which sucks, but that's my faith in this offense getting 2 yards on a short field, without a hurry up huddle). 2. 100% (it actually happened... a makable 53 yard FG for a kicker who hits them and no adverse conditions to deal with). 3. 55% when winning the coin-flip.... and that includes the chance that the defense can force a turnover and basically win the game for you. And, considering that failing at #1 virtually guarantees a loss... and succeeding at #1 by no way guarantees a win, I'm taking my chances with my defense being able to hold them both at the end of regulation AND in OT (if I'm lucky). If the Texans score the TD with less than 5 seconds left on the clock, the "go for it" mentality has a little more mmph... but it still basically showcases virtually zero faith in your defense, and as it stands, we know that getting 2 yards with this team is never a guarantee.
The two point conversion is only one play and it's entirely pass/fail and you have a VERY short field to play with. The odds are always against you when going for 2 and given the O line play, I don't think you can have that kind of confidence in pinning the game on the success of any one play.
This is nonsensical doublespeak. You keep going on and on about how there was 40 seconds left on the clock for the Cowboys. By virtue of that, you have to have faith in your defense to stop them after the 2 pointer. If you have no faith in our offense to get 2 yards, why the hell would you want to send them into OT and task them with getting *even more yards*? (Provided they even get a chance to touch the ball, since that's not even guaranteed)
The problem is, almost all your points are based on hindsight on how this team gave it up in OT... and how it "wouldn't have mattered". Secondly, you again presume a successful go for 2 guarantees a win... it doesn't. If they score with basically no time left on the clock in regulation... and you want to argue about having the stones to go for 2 then, fine... but I again seriously doubt any coach would trade a 50% chance at a loss one one singular play, vs. getting both sides of your team on the field in OT and letting them both try and make a play for you. You also presume this defense would have been incapable of creating something in OT, in a non-hurry up situation, against a turnover-prone QB, with an all-world DE who can do unfathomable things (like sack-fumbles, sack-int's, deflection-INT's, or just a plain stop).
I guess I should have specified a little better. What are the odds on #2 including actually making the FG as opposed to just driving down the field? And for #3, what are the odds when not winning the coin flip? Ie, what do you feel are the overall odds of the Texans winning in OT?
NO... I have no faith in this offense to have the game decided on ONE play. I also have more faith in this defense to consider them as a potential factor in OT... and I have more faith in this defense in a non-hurry up/non-prevent situation that they were in at the end of regulation. While I agree this defense gave up a ton of yards today... and thus they weren't really playing that great... it still takes a super-human reception in OT in the face of an excellent blitz-call to get the cowboys in position to win. They also didn't have much faith in their offense (or simply wanted to avoid a potential mistake), as they settled for a 48 yard FG on 3rd down, when they could have definitely got closer.
Actually, none of my points are. You keep bringing up stuff that happened in OT and after the XP-try, thereby forcing me to address it. I'm not the one propping my argument up with it. My entire point revolves around these simple concepts. 1) The Texans offense sucks 2) You're on the road 3) To that point, you had been outplayed by the Cowboys 4) The Texans defense was the most capable unit on the field, so I trust them to stop the Cowboys from going 50+ yards in 30 seconds 5) Overtime does not even guarantee you possession of the ball Based on those things, I felt the Texans had a better shot at winning with a 2-point conversion than trying their luck in extended time. Even if we had won in OT, it wouldn't have changed my mind that going for it would ultimately have been the safer decision. This does not mean to say, however, that either decision was going to result in a sure-fire win. The Texans were underdogs for a reason.
I think another way to frame this is that I have a lot more faith in the defense and Lechler's ability to pin the other team deep with punts than I do in the offense deciding the game on one play.
Nothing really changes with the new OT rules... I was fairly confident the Texans defense wouldn't be giving up a TD on an opening drive of OT (don't think they've given up an opening drive TD all year... looking at starts of games and halves). As far as #2 goes, when the Cowboys have 3 timeouts... and the defense is forced into a hurry-up/prevent-mode style, it does change their effectiveness. And in the end they only need a FG to win. Baily had made 30 in a row, and had hit 7 FG's from 50+ last year (with only 2 misses on the year, total). Thus, presuming that the Texans allow a 50+ yard FGA, the odds are basically whatever Baily's 50+ yard FG % rate is, minus 5% for it being a higher pressure situation.
Tasking our defense with winning the game for us in OT (basically saying they create a turnover) is a lot to ask.
That's not what you'd be asking them to do, again all you'd need to do is prevent a score and get the offense into FG range, Lechler can help pin the other team deep and the defense can shut down the offense....or rather they have a better chance of it than the offense does at one play with a short field determining the outcome of the game.
Sucks more on one do or die play. Not really... even the Cowboys felt it was a 50-50 split. And even at full capacity of Cowboys fans, Jerry-world is NOT an imposing HFA. And yet the game was tied, or in position to be tied... where anything can happen in OT. A ST turnover, a muffed punt, a blocked punt/kick, any semblance of a turnover by the Cowboys offense, and just possibly the Texans pull out a big play (run/pass) on offense. And yet they didn't... because while you're trying to prevent a TD, you're certainly making a FG more possible. Additionally, with 3 timeouts available, the Cowboys entire playbook was at their disposal... including underneath passes and passes over the middle. Only if you don't think your defense can stop them from scoring a TD... and lets presume you do think that, since you already have them preventing a FG attempt in a hurry-up situation with more timeouts. Now you're just trolling... the "safer" decision is always the one that won't put this team in position to execute a do/die play when there's an option to still have both sides (and special teams) have a say in the ultimate outcome. And they covered the spread... so technically the "underdog" Texans didn't lose by the margin that had them as an underdog to begin with.
Wait - so you think regardless of who gets the ball first, the Texans have a 55% chance to win in OT while the Cowboys only have a 45%? Fair enough - for his career, he's 72% from 50+, so let's say 67%. Regardless, unless you really believe the Texans are the favorites to win in OT, the math doesn't actually work out in favor of kicking the extra point. If you assume they have a 50% chance to win in OT, then the math actually comes out: If you kick the XP, Texans have a 16% chance to win overall. If you go for 2, Texans have a 16% chance to win overall. This is because the Cowboys have the opportunity to win it in regulation in both scenarios - if anything, the fact that they don't HAVE to score in the XP scenario gives them more flexibility to make smarter plays and increases the odds of scoring (and less pressure, which historically seems to affect Romo). If you believe the 2pt % chance is higher than 50%, then the math says to go for it (and vice-versa). If you believe the Texans have a better than 50% chance to win in OT, then the math says kick the extra-point (and vice-versa). If they are both 50%, it's neutral. That said, 95% of coaches don't go for it there so I wouldn't blame BOB or expect otherwise. My only point is that the math is not as clear cut as it might seem. Coaches regularly make terrible mathematical decisions - it's been proven over and over statistically that coaches are too conservative, mostly because losing a game by going against "conventional wisdom" results in more criticism than winning one will get you praise.
