54.9 would have been a more realistic number for over & under. Baring injuries the Rockets will win 56+ games this season.
54-58 We got moderately worse but our record should have been better last year. Ariza is better than Parsons and I consider that a net gain even without taking the salaries into account. Asik wasn't really necessary to our success. The main question is who steps up and replaces Lin's production, and also whether any of our PFs step up and prove they are a legitimate starting NBA big at both ends of the floor.
Anyone expecting 58 wins is going to be disappointed. The Rockets two headed monster was healthy for the most part last year, not likely to happen again. I have them at 48-34 and losing in round two.
Harden and Howard missed more games last year than they have in any other season of their careers. They didn't suffer anything big, but they still missed a good chunk of games. 58 is too high, but I think 48 would require more injuries than last year.
That Said I Say we Get about 49 for 5th, 6th in the West. Which is perfect for an Upset and a Long Run.. ***Sorry for the Double Post***
Why? The West has been really deep and balanced for years. That didn't stop five teams from finishing with 55+ wins in the 2012-13 season or three teams finishing with at least 55 wins last year. I see no reason why this season should be any different than the last two years.
if you dont get over 50 wins in the west..you have a very slim chance of making the playoffs..doubt 48 wins gets in the playoffs
This was true before all the expansion teams. Your right that there is balance in the middle to top but there is still a bunch of cupcakes at the the bottom (below 30 wins) that give teams 15-20 very easy wins. 8 teams last year were below 30 wins, that's 16 games at minimum. Some divisions have 2 of those teams and end up playing 24 or so games against weak teams. A team only has to be .500 against the rest to get several games over 50. The Rockets went 4-0 against the Spurs but blew some really easy games. The improved defense will really help against the easy teams. SHUT YOU DOWN!!! -J.J. Watt
Until the Rockets field the same players at least two years in a row, predictions are meaningless. This team has very limited continuity, so who knows? Predicting the Spurs is the stark contrast. The only issue is aging and declining skills, but you pretty much know what you are going to get. With the Rockets, you have so many changes that it is likely to be a completely different team "dynamic" from last year. It could be better, but it also could be worse.
I predict 45 wins. All teams have injuries during the year, so that has to be factored in. Who do we have to fill the shoes of Harden or Howard or Beverley when they miss games? Who do we have to play center when Dwight gets in foul trouble? I'm hoping that Ariza has a great year. I'm hoping that young players can step up and be solid rotation players. I'm hoping the Rockets can have a healthy year. But, if I'm looking at things realistically, I know it's unlikely all those things happen. I expect teams like New Orleans, Dallas, and Phoenix to improve this year, making things even harder on the Rockets. I see the Rockets fighting for one of the last playoff spots.
I don't see it as being close. With moves and talent already there if healthy....Dwight taking it back and beyond, Beard's growth :grin: ... 55-58 wins if healthy...and that's easy.
