Now that we have a full season of sample size, I'm curious as to why you never bumped this thread as promised. Lyles: 7-4 4.33ERA 126.2IP 90K 1.1WAR
Maybe because I have a life and the Astros have largely been dead to me for awhile? But since you bumped it, let's take a look. Yes, Lyles has regressed a bit and had some rough outings, but his ERA away from Coors (3.93) is still fairly respectable. Meanwhile, Fowler has improved slightly, bumping his average to .274, with a whopping home run total of 8 and RBI's in the mid 30's. Clearly, a powerhouse offensive player. Keep in mind, Fowler has played in only two-thirds of the Astros games, and makes $7.35 mil, vs. $502k for Lyles. Which team got better value is obvious. The Astros appear to have gotten hosed in this deal. I admire the desire to slightly increase payroll at this point in the rebuilding process, but Fowler was a very poor choice of a way to do it.
If you are judging a hitter exclusively by batting average, home run total and RBIs, something else is obvious -- you don't have much of a clue about baseball.
Okay, if you are such a shrewd statistical evaluator, please enlighten me on what parts of Fowler's performance have been anything above mediocre this season. He's really been worth 7 million eh?
Wow, really? That's pretty weak, honestly. You cherry pick a statistical category where he ranks 16th. Andrew McCutcheon makes exactly the same salary Fowler makes. Think about that Astros fans. .314 25hr 83 RBI .410 OBP Now that's a player worth $7 mil.
You're whining your cherry picking and then you select one random player making $7 million? And it's not "cherry picking a statistical category" -- it's the single most relevant singularly-focused statistic in all of offensive baseball. It means approximately 10 million times more than batting average and RBIs, to use your own examples.
Lyles got off to a good start in April, but was mediocre to bad the rest of the year. May - 4.45 ERA June - 4.50 July (Did not Pitch) August - 5.46 September - 5.16 His WHIP was better than his years in Houston, but he also only threw 122 innings in 22 games, coincidentally about 2/3 of what he was probably expected to start.
How does a guy suck when he has an obp over .370 and an ops+ of 119??? I don't get it? Did he bang your mother? Your sister? Let's go to Fangraphs. Dexter Fowler was worth 1.4 WAR this year. That amounts to 7.9 million dollars worth of value. The three years prior he was worth a little over two WAR per season which amounts to 10.5 million dollars a year. So, in conclusion, he's worth the money. He could probably get a three or four year deal worth 30 to 40 million dollars if he hit the open market tomorrow. He's a very good leadoff guy and a solid player overall. Moreover, I'm not sure why you're using McCutchen's salary as a comp? McCutchen's current salary would make most contracts look bad. McCutchen signed a deal that was very favorable for the Pirates and I give the Pirates major credit for getting it done when they did. They got a steal. It will still be favorable when he is getting 14 million per year in a couple of seasons. Not many players compare to him. According to Fangraphs, he has been worth over 37 million dollars this year. He would easily get a 10 year deal worth over 200 million if he were to hit the open market today. Like I said, Fowler is a solid player and a very good leadoff guy for any team but he isn't on McCutchen's level. I don't see that as a knock on Fowler. McCutchen is elite.
And, Jose Altuve is making $1.2 Million this season while Derek Jeter made $12 million - what's your point?
Those stats are worth more than $7 million. McCutcheon had the highest OF OPS and OBP in baseball this season Fowler had a good year and he's got the type of bat you want in a winning lineup. The Astros have way too many swing and miss guys.
Fowler will probably be making more than $10 million next year... and then he's a free agent the year after that. In addition to his questionable healthy, I'm not expecting him to get much better... but being what he is now has serious value. If they can't lock him into a team-friendly extension in the upcoming months, he probably has to be moved this off-season.
