Just for arguement, if the Astros have 5 pitchers that are as good or better than Cosart in 2 years does it matter that we don't have 6 ? We already have 2 pitchers that are better than Cosart, and peripherals (I know, I know you don't believe in projections) would suggest Oberholtzer has been better as well. Ours starters ERA is 9th in the AL.
Again, that will prove that the Astros indeed can have too much quality young starting pitching. I don't really see it as a "for-sure" thing as much as you guys (and projections are still going to put Folty and McCullers in the bullpen). Expected regression from Keuchel, McHugh and even Oberholtzer. Appel is still a relative unknown (but not the bust he was thought of 2 months ago). Woj, Nitro, White, Feliz, Shirley, VV.... we shall see who pans out, who gets injured, and who's just OK. They won't all make it. I'm not one to count the chickens before they hatch... I'm also not one to take the chicken that's hatched and trade him for caterpillars.
Mark Prior, Kerry Wood... (actually neither of those guys won 15+ games in multiple seasons). But now I'm getting confused as to what the original point was. We all agree that wins by themselves are meaningless... but pitchers that are able to have multiple seasons of 15+ wins are usually pretty good. Doesn't mean they all go on to have HOF careers. All of the players above were at one point, very good pitchers and didn't simply win games based on "luck" or only being on a good team.
So you believe in regression when it suits your argument. And they won't all have to make it, only 2 will.
Expected regression after a career year is different than saying a player will never improve in their first full year For instance, I expected regression from Castro this year (actually thought they would have traded him for a similar cosart-like yield). We'll see regression from Altuve. I'm not ready to send Dallas and McHugh to cooperstown after just one good year (but I'm not saying to trade them all either). I'm guess I'm for letting young pitchers with "stuff" grow/figure it out/don't deal them away because you think you have "too much", etc. Pitching is temperamental... and can be EVERYTHING to a team/organization (see the 90's Braves and early 2000's A's).
Fair point, but I'm ok saying Moran has high expectations, and it's a lot more impossible to know whether he'll reach them or not. That is more valuing potential, knowing there is some probability of failure. With Cosart, I feel like they were making a call based on real observation in the ML (along with past performance). Yes, still some projection...but not even close to the same degree. So to me, this is much more about how Cosart does...does he do well enough to not justify taking the chance on a high quality prospect or 2?
If you told a year ago that Dallas K and McHugh would be solid starting pitchers, I would have called you overly optimistic. However both have done very well, and their advanced statistics show it hasn't been luck. Last year Castro's advanced statistics showed he was in for a regression. The picture for McHugh and K is the opposite. Does that mean they won't regress? Of course not, but it isn't as obvious as it was with Castro. Anyone that attempts to prognosticate a teams pitching success 3-5 years down the line is foolish. Pitching especially is fungible. You never have too much of it and most of the prospects don't pan out. The Astros have a lot of depth in their system for starting pitching and that is the best way to address the issue. I also think the Astros value starting pitching more than most and that is why they continue to draft them. Cosart has done very well in Miami, but it is way too early to really evaluate. The truth is, Cosart can win 200 big league games but if they Astros are really good, no one will really care. I have stated before, Cosart is one of the hardest players to really judge. His arm is electric, but just always had something off about him similar to Daryl Kile, Tim Redding and Curt Schilling.
i think what most people think even if moran reaches his potential, and cosart turns out to be a solid 3 or 2 then we still lost the trade or wash even at best.... moran needs to be an all star caliber 3b
At one point, in the 6th or 7th, he faced only one over the minimum. Against a team that had just seen him in his last start (probably the more impressive nugget). He's on a seriously good run right now. So are the Astros.
Hernandez traded to the Dodgers <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>So just to restate: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Marlins?src=hash">#Marlins</a> getting Dee Gordon and Dan Haren from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/dodgers?src=hash">#dodgers</a> for Heaney, Kike Hernandez, Austin Barnes and Chris Hatcher</p>— clarkspencer (@clarkspencer) <a href="https://twitter.com/clarkspencer/status/542831424793870339">December 11, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Kind of interesting tidbit from Keith Law: "...That said, the Marlins don't appear to have an opening in their rotation, assuming they want Jarred Cosart to start." Has there been mention of moving Cosart to the bullpen?
I am not aware of any mention of Cosart going to the pen. It is probably Law speculating, he is not a big fan of Cosart long term as a major league starter and hasn't been for a few years. Personally it seems to me that moving a low strike out/high walk pitcher to the pen would be a disaster waiting to happen.
Stuff typically plays up in the bullpen and walks and high counts don't matter as much due to the fact that you are only being asked to go to one inning.
