Buehrle also pitched the main part of his career in a much higher offensive era. Having said that, if Keuchel has a career that resembles Mark Buehrle, I think most of us here will be plenty happy
There's no need to make this black and white. I said it's much harder, not impossible. For every Greg Maddux, how many historically elite pitchers have featured elite fastballs? A LOT MORE. That's all I'm saying. For every guy that does "very good" as you put it throwing 89-91, you can name a lot more pitchers as good or better that throw 95+. That's all I'm saying. Just because saying a type of player is difficult to succeed doesn't imply I believe he automatically fails. Yet on the flip side, if a pitcher lacks something that's generally been the key to success, then questioning his ability to succeed in the majors is not an attack on that pitcher. Historically, control guys with mediocre fastballs fail a lot more than the fireballers.
Nice article on Keuchel on CNNSI (a site I still like): http://mlb.si.com/2014/06/12/dallas-keuchel-houston-astros-arizona-diamondbacks/?eref=sihp
Didn't get to watch the last 2 games, just checked the box scores, but I think Keuchel might be kinda good. A full season's worth of results now and his ERA is 2.93. More importantly the ERA isn't fraudulent in any way, it holds up to the metrics. He gets ground balls, a lot of them. He strikes people out at a decent clip, and he doesn't walk guys. This is a time tested model for success. And FWIW his xFIP last year was 3.58, so him having a good year isn't completely out of nowhere, although nobody expected this. People keep waiting for him to fall off, but there's no real evidence aside from being pessimistic to suggest he won't be a great pitcher moving forward. How good may still be up for debate, but he's good, really good.
I agree Early on I kept waiting for him and McHugh to fall off, the more they pitch the more "real" their results seem
McHugh, to me, seems like he is true #1 material. His stuff, especially the curveball, is elite-level filthy. I would be perfectly happy next year with: 1. McHugh 2. Keuchel 3. Feldman 4. Oberholtzer 5. Nitro / Peacock I think there is definitely room in there for one more good starter, but the rotation above got us playing .500 ball for over half the season. And McHugh was out for 3-4 weeks of that.
He drastically changed how he pitched the last 18. Also stats don't say someone can't do something, only that it isn't likely. It does happen. Scouts are wrong, advanced stats are wrong... It is why the game is played. Having said that advanced stats are a hell of a tool to have in your tool box. Advanced stats found McHugh off the trash heap. FWIW I don't like guys that rely 100% on advanced stats either.
I wonder if Appel pitches well in the AFL... Will he have a chance to break ST with the Astros? If so, I look for the Astros to trade Feldman, and start the year with the following: 1) Keuchel 2) McHugh 3) Oberholtzer 4) Nitro 5) Appel I would love to include Peacock, but he's too inconsistent. Maybe he will put it together next season? Additionaly, I think Obie takes that "next step" in 2015.
Appel is going to start next year in the minors. The team wouldn't start the service clock for Springer, so they aren't going to do it for Appel. Given his struggles, I'd think no earlier than June/July when they can assume he'll avoid Super II status. Even that would take impressive performances by Appel, and a need in Houston. If Appel could be what you wanted from a 1-1, I'd take that rotation gladly.
I'd be hard pressed to believe a Feldman trade is going to happen. He's a BOR starter that isn't adding much (or taking much off the table). He's ~2 WAR guy making about market rate, so he'd have to be packaged with a prospect for a team to want to take on his salary.
I disagree. I think Feldman is coveted by many teams, especially those residing in the NL. His contract is reasonable, he's in the prime of his career, keeps the ball in the park, and carries no injury concern. I believe if Luhnow wanted to flip Feldman, teams would line up.
If Feldman cleared waivers and was a free pick-up, I could see a team grabbing him. His contract is reasonable given his production. But he doesn't offer any surplus value to his contract right now, and his contract is large for being a solid 4th starter on a good team. Most clubs don't spend $9m on their 4th starter. For 2 WAR production, it makes more sense to gamble on an unproven cheap player than spend $10m on a veteran. The Astros got a combined 9.6 WAR from Keuchel, Mchugh and Oberholtzer for $1.5m total.
