It's much harder to rebuild in baseball. Luhnow is trying to build something that will provide long term success, much like the Cardinals organization. To do that, you need patience... a lot of it. We are almost getting to the point where we are going to be able to compete, all the while consistently still having one of the best systems in baseball. We don't have the fortune of having an owner who can splurge like the Dodgers or Yankees (etc.) so this is the best way to build a team for an extended period of dominance.
Shane amassed a WAR of -.1 which is just impressive considering how many wins he racked up. Chalk one up for the "wins are the most useless stat in pitching" argument.
Agreed... but at some point, he was considered a "good pitcher" for the Astros, as most multiple 15+ game winners are. The argument wasn't whether those pitchers were "elite"... just that there wasn't a bunch of awful "lucky" pitchers with those win totals.
As a guy that is at the forefront of the wins are useless stat, if you are routinely winning 15 plus you are probably pretty good. My main problem with the stat is how obviously dependent it is on how good your team is. For example King Felix only has one 15 win season. If a pitcher is ever gonna win games his team has to be good, which is meaningless when evaluating an individual.
What was Shane's WAR just in the late 90s? Cuz, I've got a hard time believing he was anything but a good pitcher for that stretch.
I think you were looking at his position WAR, his pitching WAR was 18.1. From 95-99 his average WAR was 2.6, which would make him a good pitcher, but far from great. Just for comparison Collin McHugh has already posted a 2.9 in only 21 starts. If Jarred Cosart becomes Shane Reynolds, it will be a loss, but far from a big one.
Sealclubber nailed it. My mistake. 18.1 WAR over the career and 19.3 WAR from '94-'01 which is pretty impressive.
He's quite possibly a 15 game winner this season in his first full season in the bigs. Of course, wins don't mean much in Jeff's computer...but still.
This is a great comp for Astros fans. If he becomes Shane, how would you feel? I'd be ok with the trade in that scenario. As much as I loved Shane, he was "solid" for many years and even reliable. But not great. And I'd rather take a shot with the guys we got than stick with a guy whose ceiling is Shane and floor is a #5 SP who has gotten lucky. If he progresses beyond Shane Reynolds status, I'd say the trade was a loss/mistake/etc.
Of course, it very much depends on what the other guys do as well. There are three main pieces we got for Cosart (and Kike, who is already back in the minors).
Agreed... expectations for Moran, Marrisnick, and the mythical un-determined compensation pick player goes up for every fluke (or non-fluke) Cosart quality start. I think it also depends on what the other prospect pitchers coming up really end up doing... there's a lot of unknowns with their young pitchers (including folty), with some already being declared more bullpen guys than starters. We really are about to see if we actually had "too much" quality starting pitching in the system.
It's possible...but I'd say a tie goes to the pitcher. Good Pitching wins games. Plenty of top pitching, but so so hitting teams do great. Never seen a great hitting team-only do anything of significance. The Astros score runs now (not elite, but not awful either). They give up a crap load of runs. They just tried to draft 3 HS arms to help with their future, so it's still an organizational priority.
