I was going to say he's likely benefitting from getting to face a pitcher in the box along with a team that has never seen him before... then just saw that he's blanking the Angels in Los Angeles. But hey... only 4 K's in 5 innings, so his stuff can't be "that" good, right?
7.2IP 7H 0WALKS 1ER. Let two hits in his last inning when his velocity dropped to 91ish. Fastball had lots of movement from seeing it on tv.
Great outing by Cosart. He struck out guys, didn't walk a lot, and kept ball in the ball park. If he can do that every game, he will be a great pitcher.
He only struck out 4 pitching into the 8th... he'll get some K's, but my bet is he figures out how to be effective without becoming reliant on it (sorta like Oswalt evolved into). The control is the biggest thing... looks like he was spotting it well, attacking the strike zone. 0 walks.
The thing with being a low strikeout pitcher is that you have to maintain a great walk rate. Not decent, great. Oswalt was 3.5 to 1 K's to BB. Oswalt is obviously a high standard, but my feelings on the trade have always maintained Cosart will have to be near that level for this trade to really hurt us badly. He has certainly had great results so far in Miami, but I'm still extremely skeptical he can maintain this walk rate and a .238 BABIP.
Good for Cosart. I don't know if it is coaching, luck, or motivation, but he has done a great job limiting the walks. Marisnick has been better in Houston as well.
As long as he doesn't turn into Bud Norris, I hope he does well. Wake me up when he sustains success over a full season, though.
Considering that he had only been a MLB starter for basically just 1 calendar year when he was traded... he's closing in on that sustained "full season" success that you're looking for.
His career numbers (the "full season") are not very good, though. His ERA is, but statistically, ERA is actually a pretty bad predictor of future ERA (oddly enough). All the more predictive peripherals are still terrible - WHIP, K's, BBs, etc. What the other guy was stating is that Cosart needs to show the Miami version of himself - with improved peripherals - for an extended period of time. Lots of pitchers, good and bad, have 5-8 game stretches of awesomeness - look at Jordan Lyles' first 8 games this season, as an example. Hopefully he's figured something out, but I'm skeptical given that these problems have plagued him his entire minor and major league career until 3 weeks ago. Or maybe he just needed a new pitching coach with new ideas.
i'll bring up the Kike point again, given that a lot of people were upset that he was included in the trade as well based on his recent performance. He couldn't stick with the big league club and has struggled at AAA. I'm sure he's not as bad as his AAA stats indicate, but it's an aberration.. and I'm guessing Cosart's recent run is, as well.
Is it possible Cosart is just a freak? That his career is going to be a statistical aberration? He's shown for a pretty long time now that he walks a lot, doesn't strike out a lot..and still maintains a good ERA. Ultimately, I'm more concerned about ERA as end product than I am the other things.
He has been very inconsistent so far in the big leagues so I don't know about hitting the SUSTAINED 1 year of success. When he was traded I expressed concern because Cosart has an electric arm and if he has control, he can be a very good pitcher. Still, after 200 innings in the big leagues he has a K/BB rate of 1.3 which is just not likely to work long term. His career ERA is a solid 3.4 and his FIP for his career is a pedestrian 4. It will be interesting watching Jarred develop. He is now in a better pitching league and a better ball park. Will he long term harness his control? Will he strikeout more batters? Interesting discussion regardless. I think both sides are probably happy with the deal at this point.
There is a good case to be made for this. Cosart is an extreme ground ball pitcher. Cosart when hit gets weak contact. In the end, Cosart's current success may be sustainable. As with anything, there are always exceptions that make the rule. I would not be surprised if Luhnow will regret this trade a few years down the road.
Possible? Yes, it is possible but the odds are really against it. Ultimately the FIP and ERA almost always converge long term. I think it is MORE likely that if Cosart is a #2-3 starter it is because his control improves and his walks fall....
