Peacock wasn't in deal. Marisnick is outperforming Cosart in unbiased stats and is most likely outperforming whoever Bo would play in OF by more than Cosart would outplay Peacock. Has Santana even put a ball in play, yet?
If springer was healthy, this point (if you could really call it that) would not hold any weight. And even with unbiased stats(whatever that is), Cosart has been more valuable in his team's wins vs. Marisnick. I'm all for trying to paint every scenario through Astros-colored glasses, but in this case Cosart has been pitching well for the Marlins (plus u can't really judge anything till all components of the trade are in the majors)... And if he goes on to continue like this (or gets better as some 2nd year starters tend to do), I'm not going to be a blind homer and say "oh, the Astros wouldn't need any of that..."
Marisnick has posted an 0.8 WAR to Cosart's 0.7 WAR, and they both have on 0.5 WAA. How exactly can you say Cosart has been more valuable? Cosart has had 2 good starts, and as a Marlin is only averaging 3.9 K/9, let's not act like he has been a dominating presence. It's obvious most of us have draw lines in the sand here. Some of us have decided Cosart is very likely to become really good and we will regret it, others have determined Cosart will be a meh pitcher and we will make out like bandits. Everybodies responses right now are gonna be painted according to whichever side they are on. I think I'm pretty much at the point where I'm gonna stop talking about it until we have some extended concrete evidence.
WAR according to fangraphs has Marisnick contributing more to wins since the trade. I'm not aware that they had Astros colored glasses. I use fangraphs consistently so I am not picking stats just to make the Astros look good. WAR had its pluses and minuses, but for a stat that combines other stats in a way to measure a players in an unbiased way across positions, leagues, and teams...it is the best way I try to remove my homerism. What unbiased stats are you refering to that can be measured across leagues, positions that measure impact to wins? I assume you are just saying that those stats exist without having a stat that can apple to apple compare Marisnick and Cosart. Even baseball reference (more ERA friendly WAR) favors Marisnick. The trade favors the Astros big-time long term for expected value for projections I've seen. It truly can't be measured until the players are no longer under club control. Please pick a stat between fangraphs, baseball reference, or other recognized WAR stat so we can see if you are right that the Astros got hosed. I pick WAR from fangraphs to judge my view Astros will win this trade.
I used wins probability added... which basically can look at how much a pitcher can contribute to a win vs. how much a hitter can contribute to a win. Marisnick did get a big bump after his big hit last night which can definitely alter this metric (along with the WAR). I actually didn't bring up any of this due to huge sample size issues... but its obvious you feel Cosart is who he is, and won't be all that valuable to any team as a quality starting pitcher. I'm never going to devalue a starting pitcher (esp a young one) simply because of the perception that we have a lot of other potential replacements... I still feel strongly that you cannot have too much starting pitching. I also am not going to get all wrapped up in Marisnick's hitting at the moment... he's a terrific defender, good enough to where I'd be happy to have him in the lineup even with sub-par/Adam Everett type hitting (of course that presumes he's playing CF, and not LF).
"Strikeouts are boring... besides that, they're fascist." I'd say his 0.982 WHIP over his 3 starts is pretty damn good, no matter what the K numbers are. At this point, its likely safe to say he's going to have to become an effective pitcher without the huge K numbers (which is entirely possible). I agree that several here have already made up their minds on who Cosart is and what he's capable of in the future... and surely those people could never ever (ever) be wrong.
I'm not one to take a dump on the Cosart trade; I rather feel kinda meh either way. But I just want to point out the bringing up Peacock is absolutely relevant to this discussion. We didn't get a pitcher back from the Marlins; we went with Peacock, who continues to suck.
That's part of my problem with it...that's why I kept talking about kicking the can down the road. Because instead of going with Cosart and developing that, they still have Peacock in the rotation..all the other names that were sure to replace Cosart are still in the minor leagues. My other problem is that it's far easier to find a Marisnick than it is to find a guy who is starting pitcher at the MLB level; particularly a young one with potential who has been so highly thought of. I'm fine with ultimately moving along quality young pitching...but it seems to me you usually do that to get something more than minor league/borderline major league talent at the time of the trade. But whatever..it's spilled milk now. I still don't like the deal. I hope Moran changes my mind.
Peacock is the short term replacement. But losing Cosart ultimately opened up a rotation spot to whatever young pitcher emerges. If Peacock can't cut it, the system is strong in terms of starting pitching. Good outfielders on the other hand are pretty scarce on the roster and on the farm.
Thanks. My views on value don't correspond with this stat, but it is nice to see how you are comparing a player's value.
Why is everyone acting like this was a Marisnick for Cosart swap? Moran's at .295/.362/.443 as a 21 year old in Corpus. Sure his power could use some work, but a .300 3B is damn nice. 18 year old Francis Martes has allowed one earned run in 11 innings with 12 K's as an 18 year old. Kike has already been demoted and Wates is struggling to stay above the Mendoza line.
Yes... but ultimately, you can find/develop/sign/trade for quality OFers far more feasibly than the ability to acquire for-sure MLB quality starting pitching that's still in their 20's. Nevertheless, this trade was more for Moran as opposed to Marrisnick. I also understand we have a potential surplus of quality arms in the minors... but its' highly doubtful they all pan out into rotational starters. Cosart and Peacock were also considered quality minor league arms at one point (in fact, more-so than the ones that are on the cusp of being promoted).
I don't know about OF being easier to acquire than pitching. In today's MLB, good position players are becoming more scarce than pitchers. But I do agree with you that Moran's a big part of the trade and so we won't be able to really judge it until you see how he pans out. 2 potential quality position players vs. Cosart is I'm sure the crux of the trade from the Astros' perspective. Peacock was a 41st round pick who turned into a serious high-level prospect for Washington, but he really faltered in the A's system. He wasn't a throw-in in the Lowrie deal, but I don't remember thinking we were getting a top prospect when he arrived. Carter was the bigger draw from that trade.
Main criticism of the trade has been that it made the team worse now, and there's a possibility that Cosart continues to blossom which means the Astros traded a MLB quality starting pitcher in their 20's for prospects. The initial response was that the team is not "worse" now (thanks to Marrisnick exceeding expectations)... hence all the Jake vs. Jarred discussion. I agree, and said it in my last post, it was always more about Moran. Can't speak for everybody else, but I'm passed the point where I can get giddy over minor league numbers. Maybe its all the improvement at the MLB level this year, along with seeing some of the prospects actually swim (and sink). Or maybe its just fatigue from following the minors more than the majors due to all the previous year's losing. Sure, I think Moran's got a great chance to pan out... and I'm rooting for it. But other than specific cases like Correa (who just looks the part), and Appel (a struggling pitcher who is possibly finding their way), I'll be cautiously optimistic about any prospect till they get a fair shot (and ultimately fail or succeed) in the majors. Not sure anybody gave much of a damn about these guys... until kee-kay goes all Ben Zobrist on us .
Actually, had you polled the front office (or the diehard fans) at the time, I'm pretty sure they'd tell you they were most excited about Stassi. Unfortunately, his struggles this year have coincided with Castro's struggles at the MLB level... but that's why you can't get too hung up (or down) on prospects till they get a chance to stick (or not) at the MLB level. Its also why some are just inherently not going to support a trade of a young MLB-quality pitcher for prospects (sometimes, they just don't all pan out).
Peacock starting is a separate decision in my opinion that is not optimum for short term success, but can see the reasoning to include it since it is the decision the Astros made in response to the trade. It won't have much an affect long term, but it does now. My disdain for Peacock starting is on them starting Peacock. I thought the Astros would bring up Tropeano or maybe even Folty for starting. It doesn't show up in WPA as the pitcher gets all credit for fielding to my knowledge, but Marisnick most likely has been the biggest force in fielding since the trade among all major leaguers. I don't think he is that easy to replace unless Bo is the manager. Granted, the Astros have Bo for manager.
